Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Mar 21, 2021.
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I’d put Sarr and the full backs on that list
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It’s getting close to the full starting 11
At least if Sarr is injured we have Zinckernagel, and if Kiko is injured we have Ngakia, although admittedly Kiko and Sarr have an incredible relationship. Masina is definitely not our best player on paper, but with the alternative (Lazaar, or shifting Kiko to the left), he's arguably among the most important
I predict we’d be in a bad position if we lost the starting 11.
Media keep banging on about Brentford being the “best footballing side” bollox. Norwich have actually proven to be comfortably the best side in the division although we’ve probably got close to being up there now. Not sure how that can come across as nonsense.
Irrespective of our viewpoints and despite the run we’re on, our football is still a little patchy and our record against the better teams in the division is average at best.
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It depends how you define good football, but that article someone posted the other day showed Norwich were by far the best footballing side as far as passing moves are concerned. 10% of all passing moves of 10 or more passes are by them. We were pretty much the same as Brentford.
I think with Brentford it comes from the fact they’ve scored the most goals, and for your lazy media type that will be the thing they’ll look at to decide who they think plays the best football. It’s the same reason why in co-commentary the other day Lee Hendrie said we’d ‘ground out results and it hadn’t always been pretty’. The reality is he’s probably hardly watched us, if at all, at a quick glance he can see we have the best defensive record in the league so has made the sweeping judgement we’re just grinding out wins.
Before we wring our hands too much over today’s result, let’s not forget that even GT’s promotion winning teams were not immune to wobbles. April 1979 saw us lose 3 out of 4 including 0-3 at home to Colchester, which resulted in us dropping off the top of the table and even made us vulnerable to missing out completely as we ended up only 1 point ahead of Gillingham in 4th.
3 straight wins in our last 3 games in May got us over the line, including the pivotal 3-2 win at Sheffield Weds.
Runs like the one we’ve just had often end with a defeat; at least we drew today!
Might be back to as it was at worse so really in the same position.
Not lose at Brentford .
Disagree, if Brentford win that's 2 points gained on us. If they don't then we're another game closer.
Away at Brentford is absolutely a "must not lose" game.
Yes - agree with that.
it will all be done dusted by that game
That would be most un-Watfordy thing ever!
Sarr is gash.
So.......we can see the chasing sides, and now look at their ceiling totals.
If we beat Reading on Friday they wont be able to overtake us making the lowest mathematical position we could finish as 6th.....so the play offs would be confirmed.
Draw at Brentford and win three of the remaining five games and Brentford would have to win every other of their games to exceed our points total.
Win four of our last six and Brentford would have to win all 8 of their remaining games to exceed our points total.
Brentford’s games are easier on paper but once you look at their games with a little more context few of them are easy. Birmingham have been decent so far under Bowyer and are physical disrupters - not the kind of team Brentford like to play. Preston have picked up - decent performances against the top 2 over Easter. Millwall at home - we face them too - their games are always close. Cardiff were awful today but when they’re on their game they’re difficult to deal with. Bournemouth resurgent and have some quality players. Fighting for playoffs. They have to play Rotherham, fighting against relegation, in the midweek just before they play us, with a full week of preparation. Bristol City are pretty poor to be fair though. I’d rather face free-falling Swansea at home than many if not most of those sides.
I've been looking at our final six opponents and have noted their current form
Reading (home). Forest (a) 1-1 D, Birmingham (a) 1-2 L QPR (h) 1-1 D, Barnsley (a ) 1-1 D, Derby (h) 3-1 W. Reading's last two results have been good, but Saturday was their first win in 5. I feel this is a game we really must win, if we are to finish in the top two.
Luton (away). Swansea (h) 0-1 L, Coventry (h) 2-0 W, Preston (a) 1-0 W, Derby (a) 0-2 L, Barnsley (h) 1-2 L. Luton have also been patchy. 2 wins and 3 defeats. It's a derby of course, and there might be some edge to it, but without the fans it's a little meaningless. I feel we have to win this game also.
Norwich (away). Luton (h) 3-0 W, Sheff Wed (a) 2-1 W, Forest (a) 2-0 W, Blackburn (h) 1-1 D, Preston (a) 1-1 D. Norwich have had a couple of slip ups lately, but their form is still strong. 3 wins and 2 draws. I expect us to drop points in this match.
Millwall (home). Derby (a) 1-0 W, QPR (a) 2-3 L, Boro (h) 1-0 W, Rotherham (h) 1-0 W, Stoke (a) 2-1 W. Millwall have actually gone under the radar. Since the turn of the year when we drew 0-0 with them, they've gone on a really good run. They've only lost 3 games this calendar year. I had this down as a banker, but it could be a lot harder than expected.
Brentford (away). Norwich (a) 0-1 L, Blackburn (a) 1-0 W, Derby (a) 2-2 D, Forest (h) 1-1 D, Huddersfield (a) 1-1. Brentford's form has nosedived of late. Only winning 1 game in 5. However, this will probably be the crucial match.
Swansea (home). Luton (a) 1-0 W, Bournemouth (a) 0-3 L, Cardiff (h) 0-1 L, Brum (a) 0-1 L, Preston (h) 0-1. Swansea's form has been a horror show. 4 defeats on a spin has all but killed off their top two hopes. It's hard to predict this far ahead, as they may have found their form again by then. Could be one we win though.
For me, the next two games are crucial. If we slip up in them and Brentford win their two games, then it'll be very tough for us to do it. A couple of wins however, with Brentford dropping points, then we'll be home and nosed.
I think it might be time to recall Foster.
As ever, we need to win our home games.
If we do I feel that will just about get us there.
I don't know why I just don't have any confidence in us at all to do it, I really felt like we had to win yesterday or Brentford will catch us. I just don't look at any of the remaining games and feel massively confident of winning after the last two performances. Which is mental really as you can literally get 9/2 on us to not get promoted - the bookies aren't often mugs.
Most of the neutrals I know look at the league table and can’t believe we’d be worried.
Agree with the Foster comment, although I can understand why Munoz is sticking by him. Bachmann has not done a lot wrong and he's been part of this impressive defence and good run of ours. However, I just feel he's going to cost us a match at some point. His reluctance to come off his line is a real problem and puts pressure on the defence to deal with the ball every time. At key moments it's a relief having someone like Foster to come out and claim the ball or punch it away, and he's vastly superior to Bachmann in his command of the penalty area. We're at the crunch time now. Games are running out and screw ups are going to be costly.
Yep literally anyone I know that isn't a Watford fan believes it's over. Which is eerily similar to this time in the season last year, neutrals don't seem to understand our propensity to mess these things up or how vile our fixtures are.
On a superficial level we look a long way ahead, but it's a falsehood really. Brentford have TWO games in hand. They win those and our lead is cut to 4 points. We've also got to play them at their place, which could trim the lead to just 1 point.
We cannot consider ourselves in a formidable position unless Brentford drop points in their games in hand. Remember, it's Watford we're talking about. We've had a bit of a history under the Pozzo's of failing at the final hurdle.
If we win the next two and Brentford drop points at the same time, then, and only then, would I consider us as a safe bet to go up.
spot on !
Yep. In a way it is in Brentford's hands, given that we have a dead-cert loss at Norwich to come. Our away record is abysmal.
8th best in the league. And we’ve only picked up 4 fewer points on the road than Brentford in 2nd.
It was abysmal after Ivic left, under Munoz our away record reads P10 W5 D3 L2 F14 A9 Pts 18 that's 1.8 PPG obviously, which isn't too shabby.
Really? Haven't we won 4, lost 1 and drawn 1 in the last six away. Hardly what I'd call abysmal form.
To clarify. Abysmal against teams that are half-decent.
Cardiff aside we haven't beaten anyone in the top 10 away.
...or the bottom 2, it's swings and roundabouts.
Not sure where this narrative of 'we are Watford, we will mess it up comes from'.
Last time we were in a promotion race, it was much tighter than this and we rattled off 5 wins back to back to secure promotion with a game to spare.
We're going to be absolutely fine.
I know why, it's because we got relegated last season after it being in our hands to stay up.
All Watford fans must surely fear a similar catastrophe this year.
It comes from Watford 1 Leeds Utd 2, Watford 0 Palace 1 (play off final) Watford 1 Palace 2 (FA Cup semi final), Watford 1 Sheff Weds 1 (lost the Championship title). The needless relegation last season where we conspired to go down from a virtually safe position. It's a few chokes.
Were we've held our nerve was winning at Brighton when we went up (although it was a game where we were hanging on until that breakaway second goal). Even the FA Cup semi final we were down and out, until Geri's inspirational goal and a generous last minute penalty from Mr Oliver.
We tend to screw up more than seal the deal, and this I think is what people are referring to with Watford.
What makes me the most confident is their run of games up to our match. Millwall, Cardiff (+3 days), Bournemouth away (+4 days), Rotherham (+3 days), us (+4 days). They'll have less time to prepare for each match, will likely need to rotate, have more chance of picking up niggling injuries and are therefore more likely to drop points. And that's ignoring their recent form, and their greater propensity than us to choke.
I don't think they'll beat Bournemouth. If they draw against us, it's probably game over for them.
It certainly doesn't make sense but most football fans look at the worst case scenario. I've seen elsewhere somebody say if Brentford win tonight they are only 7 points away. 7 points!! With 6/7 games to go that's a pretty big buffer. I'm still ridiculously nervous about it and I'm more confident of Brentford and Swansea handing us promotion rather than us grabbing it ourselves