The Final Games

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    So, as far as Watford are concerned, the season has come down to the run-in of three teams. Swansea, Brentford and of course Watford.

    I wanted to put together a realistic scenario to see where we could be before the final two matches. I'm hoping by the time we play them they will be almost dead rubbers.

    Watford P 44 Pts 89
    Sheff Wed (h ) W, Middlesbrough (a ) D, Reading (h ) W, Luton (a ) W, Norwich (a ) D, Millwall (h ) W.
    P 6 W 4 D 2 Pts 14

    Swansea P 44 Pts 83
    Birmingham (a ) D, Preston (h ) W, Millwall (a ) D, Wycombe (h ) W, QPR (h ) W, Reading (a ) L, Derby (h ) W
    P 7 W 4 D 2 L 1 Pts 14

    Brentford P 44 Pts 82
    Huddersfield (a ) W, Birmingham (h ) W, Preston (a ) D, Millwall (h ) W, Cardiff (h ) D, Bournemouth (a ) L, Rotherham (h ) W
    P 7 W4 D 2 L1 Pts 14

    I've given all teams 14 points from their final games. Not forgetting Brentford and Swansea play one more game than us, so in effect we would have gained 3 points over the both of them.

    So then it would set us up for the final 2 games. We'll be 7 clear of Brentford and 6 clear of Swansea. We'd just need 1 point to be mathematically promoted or as long as we do not have 2 heavy defeats we should be safe from Swansea as our GD is superior right now.

    Or......if we win 5 plus 1 draw from our next 6 games, we'll be promoted before the final two games, which would be a superb position to be in. Then the timing of these final two games would have worked out very well for us.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2021
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  2. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    I will be happy if it's still in our hands come the last couple of games.

    It's just impossible to predict results at the moment. I can guarantee that the Barnsley result ruined many a football bet yesterday and we will see a few more results like that in the run in.

    I just want to read that Sarr is fit and ready for the Wednesday game and I will be more optimistic.

    We're looking better all over the pitch than our two rivals, even though Swansea looked better yesterday than they have for the last three games, even then they couldn't get a result. As I've said all season Brentford give the opposition a chance in every game because of the way they play. A Toney injury and I would immediately rule them out. Franck seems like a stubborn MF and refuses to gi e up on what he believes in even when it's clear it's not working.
     
  3. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    A lot of people on other forums saying what a tough run in we have, but we are the form team, the other teams should be more concerned about us. Also as you reckon, it could be sewn up by the time we get to the final two matches.

    The next 4 are key now.

    1. Home to Wednesday, on paper this should be 3 points but how will the international break affect loss of momentum/tiredness due to some players travelling?
    2. Away to Boro, our last very long journey. The Easter weekend is where Boro need to make a last ditch attempt to get to the play offs. This is probably the trickiest of our next 4.
    3. Home to Reading. I don't see what's been so great about them, to their credit they have hung around the top 6 all season so it would be unfair to say they are in a false position, but I think that if we are able to start with our best line up, we would have a little bit too much for them.
    4. Away to Luton. With fans this would have been a tricky local fixture, without fans against a team who at this point would have nothing to play for and could be the most ideal time to ever have to go to the Kennel.

    Get through these unscathed, hopefully with maximum points then the final two games could be an irrelevance. Who knows we could even be right on Norwich's tail when we meet just after these.
     
  4. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    It’s pretty punchy to have us going another 6 games without a defeat. I hope you’re right but I just can’t see it.
     
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    The next 6, as a collective on paper, are a lot harder than the previous 6. However, the win at Cardiff has really changed my perspective.

    I think we'll all expect wins from Sheff Wed and Millwall at home. Our home form is so good that beating Reading should not be considered unlikely. I've given us only 5 points from Luton, Boro and Norwich away, which I consider a fair representation. I think it's all very plausible for this Watford side on their current run of form.

    The way I see it is, you don't go up with a bad run of results. If we are to get promotion, it's probably the string of results we need to achieve this.
     
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  6. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    If we can go to Brentford only needing a draw or win for promotion then that would be good.

    We never seem to get the results we need on the final day so playing Swansea needing points would worry me!
     
  7. I Blame Bassett

    I Blame Bassett Squad Player

    "A thousand mile sandwich was made with small radishes".
    Or something like that I believe.
     
  8. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    That would be 9 on the spin. A lot to ask for but is achievable in all honesty. Agree with Boro away they're very hit or miss atm. But I believe we're going to see a whole new Derby game against the Scum. The last one was a joke in terms of fight and I expect the Northern Bastards to have a right go at us.
     
  9. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Will take either a monumental effort or a collapse from Brentford and Swansea for us to be able to clinch 2nd before the final two games, pretty sure it'll go down to the final day, but if we can go into that with our fate in our own hands (against a Swansea team who might by then have one eye on resting players for the play-offs), I think I might take that...
     
  10. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Would you say we looked 'good' at Huddersfield? Created more chances, but they did score early and could sit back, I wonder if Swansea would have 'dominated' the game so much had Cardiff not got that early goal?

    Delighted we managed to win comfortably yesterday without Sarr, fingers crossed he's not out for Wednesday, if so, a break might do him the world of good!
     
  11. Carpster

    Carpster Squad Player

    No we were shocking against Huddersfield but that was in December before Xisco.
     
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  12. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    I doubt that the current L*t*n players have any real concept of the rivalry with Watford. They’re not direct rivals of ours for promotion or relegation and we haven’t been in the same division for years so, without the fans being there, I think they will treat it as just another game. No matter what the fans on both sides might like to think, the same goes for the Watford players as well. They will see L*t*n as another mid-table side to try and take 3 points from. All that plays in our favour I would say.
     
  13. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    No it will not, starting with Brentford ; we are 7 points ahead of them. If we are the same by the time we play them then they can't catch us. It would mean they equal what we do and lose one as they have 7 matches to our 6 to play before then.

    Similar with Swansea, if they draw twice and otherwise equal us by the end of April we will be promoted before the final two games.
     
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  14. cyaninternetdog

    cyaninternetdog Forum Hippie

    We are winning promotion at the scums place.
     
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  15. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    I would LOVE IT if we beat them! (To coin a phrase.)
     
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  16. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Wednesday, Luton and Millwall should be wins. Draws against Reading and Boro would be very respectable results, that would be 86 points. Realistically that probably leaves us needing 4 points from Norwich, Brentford and Swansea.
     
  17. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Hm...that would be tough!

    But I think we can get a point at Brentford and beat Swansea if they need to come out and win as with Sarr etc we might catch them on the break.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2021
  18. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Yep, of course it depends what happens with Swansea and Brentford, but if 90 points is needed than under that scenario that’s what we’ll need. Of course we could get wins against Reading and Boro, but I think a 10+ winning streak is extremely unlikely, or winning something like 17 out of 18 games or whatever it would be.
     
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  19. Teide1

    Teide1 Squad Player

    We are the form team!, let the others worry about us while we quietly go about our business! there is a huge new massive resolve about the team, you can see how everybody is in and knows what's required. We haven't come this far with our recent run to Pi_s it up now!
     
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  20. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Good news about Swansea on the last day is that, in all likelihood, they'll either desperately need a win, or they'll have fallen away and hence will be wrapping their lads up in cotton wool. Brentford away will surely be a very difficult game even if they're not on good form at the moment, though they'll be every bit as worried about that game as we are (probably more so on this form). Norwich on paper is the most difficult game, luckily even with dropped points it's still very possible that promotion will have been wrapped up by the time we go to them...hopefully they'll be on the piss!
     
  21. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Who's up for being a Bournemouth fan again on April 24th? ;)
     
  22. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    Does this remind anyone else of last season when it was a three horse race between us, Bournemouth and Villa for 17th place?

    You'd think this is more challenging, because we've got to stay ahead of two teams that although stuttering are likely to win a fair few games each between now and the end of the season, and we've got to keep winning, but obviously the opposition is far weaker and there seems to be a much stronger mentality in the squad and an ability to bounce back quickly from bad results/performances.
     
  23. Johnny Todd Sings

    Johnny Todd Sings First Year Pro

    Ifs, buts and maybes.
    It is only less likely that we will do as well in our next eight games than in or last eight because we are playing better sides. In terms of recent form we are second to Norwich and just ahead of Barnsley and Cardiff. We only have to play one of them BUT who would have thought that Barnsley would lose to Wednesday? We could, too.
     
  24. Halfwayline

    Halfwayline Reservist

    How much will travelling have an affect on tiredness. Those 6 games are over 1000 miles on the road/air for Brentford and Swansea. 750 for us...or am I clutching at straws?
     
  25. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    I actually wasn't that surprised by that result, it's a derby and Wednesday often beat them irrespective of the teams' form and positions at the time.

    Should be different with us, mind you Wednesday have been a thorn in our side on a few occasions even though most recent seasons we've been the better team, notably when they brought our fifteen-match unbeaten run to a crashing halt in 2000/01 and we were never the same since.
     
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  26. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    On current form Barnsley are better than Sheffield Wednesday, so it was a surprise result, but no-one can question that we are better than either of them. So, although of course it’s possible we could lose to them it’s less likely than Barnsley doing so.
     
  27. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    A lot on here seem to be afraid of our run in of games, because we have to play Norwich, Brentford, Swansea, Reading and Luton. However I see those games as a positive, because we can see off our rivals for promotion by beating them.

    TBH the game I most fear out of that lot is away at The Kennel, as they will be so up to spoil our promotion push, although some people have said that if results go our way in other games we could actually clinch promotion by beating "The Scum" in that match, and would they not like that :cool:
     
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  28. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    Our chaotic start to the season might actually work out in our favour as our players don't have as many miles in the legs as our two biggest rivals for second.

    We have no player that has played over 3000 minutes, Brentford have two, Swansea have four.
    We have three that have played over 2500 minutes (Sarr, Sema, Kiko), Brentford and Swansea both have seven.
    We have seven that have played over 2000 minutes, Brentford have eleven and Swansea have ten.

    In a long and gruelling season, some of our players haven't played that many minutes: Hughes 1293, Masina 1379, Sierralta 1578, Gosling 1017, Gray 1018. And some of the others have had breaks through injury and suspension that have managed their minutes (e.g. Chalobah, Cleverley). The cumulative effect of fatigue over a season shouldn't affect us as badly as the other two that more or less put the same players out, week in week out.

    And of course, this also applies to the other teams we play, a lot of whom have smaller squads.
     
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  29. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Plus if ever there was a season for fatigue to be a factor, it's this one. The whole stop-start affair last summer, followed by the truncated pre-season and then into a late starting Championship campaign with extra midweek fixtures shoehorned in to make up time.

    Brentford lost AET in the play-off final on 4 August and around 5 weeks later were kicking off the new season.
     
  30. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Don't forget that Zinc played a whole season in Norway, which I understand ran from mid June until 19th December.

    I also think that Brentford's run to the QF in the EFL cup and Swansea to the 5th round of the FA Cup would have added more strain to them.
     
  31. Diamond

    Diamond Squad Player

    We win our 4 home games and that's 87 points bagged. Anything on the road is a bonus. 87 points will be enough, have no doubt with Brentford and Swansea's form.

    However, it would be completely unlike Watford to make it that d*mn easy!
     
  32. The PozzMan

    The PozzMan Squad Player

    It’s a shame we didn’t sort ourselves out sooner, if form had been better we could’ve had a guard of honour by those ***** up the road at their own place.
     
  33. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    True but then he didn't start a league game for us until mid March so had a healthy break.
     
  34. Simmos

    Simmos First Year Pro

    I haven't gone back to check the points totals of teams coming third but I am guessing it must be around 85/86 points. I realise there are anomalies such as Sunderland not being promoted with 90 points in the past and WBA last season being promoted automatically with 83 points. However assuming that the average is 86 we only need 12 points from 8 games to beat that number. I think we would be very disappointed if we couldn't win 4 more games this season regardless of the opposition. The last few games have convinced me that we are a Premier League team playing in the Championship and provided we play to the best of our ability we should go up regardless who we play.
     
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  35. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    Done this so many times, they are horrible fixtures really when you break them down.

    Shef Wed (H) - Win
    Boro (A) - Draw
    Reading (H) - Win
    L*ton (A) - Lose
    Nowich (A) - Lose
    Millwall (H) - Win
    Brentford (A) - Lose
    Swansea (H) - Draw

    86 points. Going to be f'ing tight and that's even with us having a very good next three. We really need Norwich up and Swansea playoff bound by the time we play those games as will have to beat one of them you suspect.
     

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