The Championship 2020-21

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Markoa$, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    The thing is that there is a + or - % against any prediction and in the case of the election they have nearly 150 million votes to work with so their deliberations have very high probability. Whilst the 'Soccer ' Championship in England has a much smaller sample size of data having only played 11 games so their current predictions have a much higher margin of error currently and will change through the season as more matches are played.

    I think it is very high probability that we will finish top 6 and quite decent odds of top 2 which I'm sure will improve as the season continues.
     
  2. Top 6 will be the 3 relegated teams plus Brentford, Swansea and one other. I think we have about a 50% chance of promotion overall via top 2 or playoffs.
     
  3. Harrybassetthater

    Harrybassetthater Academy Graduate

    I think Bournemouth and Norwich have more chance of being promoted automatically than us with the addition of possibly Swansea. I think we will have to settle for the play-offs at best and this all depends on whether we sell any prime assets in the January window.
     
  4. Forzainglese

    Forzainglese Reservist

    Yep. You are not wrong and I understand it.
    But part of the problem is gauging the value of the information you have gathered. So, for instance, in election polls people lie or change their minds and Scotland rejects independence, Brexit happens and so on, despite predictions to the contrary.
    The other part is 'events, dear boy, events'. The course of the future is altered by things happening that are not predictable. So Deulefeu is crippled after the slightest of fouls against him and Watford had a penalty denied away against Spurs, even though our man was tripped 3 times in the penalty area. The difference between relegation and not being relegated.
    Of course, as time goes by it is increasingly possible to see the trends. And this is reflected in a thing called the league table.
     
  5. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Can you back up your opinion with any reasoning?
     
  6. lowerrous

    lowerrous Squad Player

    If Norwich finish ahead of us it would be a big failure on our part - they were by far the worst team in the Premier League last season and we've pretty much kept as many of our key players as they have theirs.
     
    lutonh8a likes this.
  7. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    I agree, but they have had a much more settled side than we have had. Our opening game against Middlesbrough proved how threadbare we were due to players not wanting to play etc. However, we have
    gained somewhat of a foothold on that now. Norwich seem to score very late goals (often winning ones), and are much more likely to get a smash and grab win against most sides. We do have more quality yes,
    but they seem a much more settled side. I do not know how a sudden influx of injuries may affect them however.
     
    Cthulhu likes this.
  8. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    What happened to my post about the earlier seasons??
     
  9. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    They lost fewer key players than us, and haven't had anywhere near the chaos we've had, so we don't have a God-given right to finish above them. They are an excellent Championship team and are playing well at the moment (certainly better than us), there'll be little margin for error, though what we do have in our favour is that we are just starting to settle and get key players back after injury
     
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  10. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    We've also had a relatively easy start to the season I'd say, out of the teams you'd expect to be well in the mix for automatic promotion, we've only played Bournemouth and are yet to play Brentford, Swansea and Norwich, and I don't believe we're to play any of those three for a while yet (though we have played current leaders Reading, as well as play-off chasers Boro and Stoke). While we don't have much of a cushion (if we have one at all) over the big teams who have played more games against each other, it's a good thing that we don't have to play them until the side gets more settled; are performances are getting there, but they certainly wouldn't be frightening the likes of Norwich
     
  11. Forzainglese

    Forzainglese Reservist

    You are probably right; they seem to be a team who flatter to deceive: They play attractive football, but their attack is not all that potent and their defence vulnerable. Nevertheless, they have largely kept their squad together and will be more experienced; so, who knows..
     
  12. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

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  13. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    Yes, sorry, wrong thread!!
     
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  14. ForzaWatford

    ForzaWatford Squad Player

    Apparently a number of Championship clubs want 5 subs, and it'll be voted on soon. You'd think that should benefit us provided our whole squad is back.
     
    lutonh8a likes this.
  15. Dorset-Orn

    Dorset-Orn Academy Graduate

    Having seen the first part of the season it's clear the division has several decent teams, a few that are our match, and several at the bottom end that set up to disrupt, press, and hope to snatch the odd result.
    Based on that we have played some neat football but have not looked better than the opposition in respect of controlling the game.
    I reckon to make the important jump and start really worrying teams we need to turn up the gas with our forward play. 433 formation might make us seem weaker in midfield but teams like Liverpool show that if you've got a great front three, you don't need a dogged midfield.
    Get in a decent LB, midfield 3 of Femenia, Capoue, and Hughes / Garner, and then front 3 of Sarr, Deeney/ Sema - would terrorise most teams in this division...!
     
  16. reids

    reids Squad Player

    You wanna play Kiko in central midfield?!
     
  17. Davy Crockett

    Davy Crockett Academy Graduate

    and no Pedro either !?
     
  18. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    ive often wondered about deploying him as a winger, but in the middle of the park other teams would make mince meat out of him.

    his distribution is average, he is about as strong as a card castle in a stiff breeze and I don’t think I’ve ever seen him win a header.
     
  19. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    I completely agree regarding Kiko in the middle being nuts, but don’t think Pedro is a nailed on starter. He is a very impressive young player with a potentially great future ahead of him but he still has quite a lot to learn. I expect him to be in and out this season.
     
    Davy Crockett likes this.
  20. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Now that we have actual able-bodied strikers in the squad, I suggest JP won't be a regular if we carry on with 2 players nominally up top in a 3-5-2, and it'll be a battle between him and King Ken for that spot out wide if we play a 4-3-3, with space for both of them in a 3-4-3. I maintain he's done little wrong, just doesn't quite fit what we've been playing of late
     
    Davy Crockett likes this.
  21. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    Re Norwich: They had a Championship squad last year and a Championship squad this year.
    Whilst we had an underperforming Premier league squad last season and have kept a number of those underperformers. We must hope that sprinkled with a number of young skillful players the old will become spritefull again. If we are top 2 come January then we have been successful to that point.
     
    lutonh8a likes this.
  22. Dorset-Orn

    Dorset-Orn Academy Graduate

    No definitely not. Capoue for cm. Sorry I just chucked some names down for midfield who I think can play there and link up well with the front 3. Kiko might be a bit lightweight and not a rb but I really rate him as a footballer and can see him linking up really well with Ngokia and Sarr down the right. I'm not sure about Deeney either but if there is a formation that would bring the best out of him it would be cf in a front three in the Cship...
     
  23. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    Kiko is probably best as RWB where he is now. Although he still can't defend properly it's less obvious while he gets to show what he's better at.

    Not an attacker in a 4-3-3 for me, or the right of the midfield three either.

    Possibly in a 4-4-2 he could do right midfield, but Sarr would be far better than him at that too.

    Overall a useful squad player at this level but I'm not desperate to ensure he gets played.

    He's done some really good and some less good things this season and will likely continue in the same vein.
     
  24. Ybotcoombes

    Ybotcoombes Reservist

    very true , reality is that you can predict to a certain degree (e.g Watford will finish 10) , but the finite detail is chaos theory , your striker could get injured , lose confidence , come into form etc etc
     
    Forzainglese likes this.
  25. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Pulis in at Sheffield Wednesday.

    Won’t be pretty but probably do a decent job.
     
  26. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Reservist

    Can see it now, he keeps them up turgidly but fairly comfortably, until eventually results stagnate, everyone gets bored to death of the style of play and they move onto the next shiny toy
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  27. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    There are ways to keep a team up other than grinding out narrow wins and the team are only two points from safety with presumably an improved squad from last season (defence seems better for one thing). Have the board so little faith in the squad’s quality that they feel someone who’s a specialist in avoiding relegation and little more is their only hope? I can’t see him getting them promoted, so they’ll be looking for another manager in a year or two’s time, something they’ve been doing too much in the last 25 years.
     
  28. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    They haven’t scored 2 in a game for ages which hasn’t helped but you are right.

    The defensive record isn’t bad at all.
     
  29. reids

    reids Squad Player

    Derby sack Cocu. Not really a surprise to anyone tbf.
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  30. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Surprised they took a week to do it.
     
  31. I Blame Bassett

    I Blame Bassett Squad Player

    True.
    Who's next there then?
    Mr Potato Head?
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  32. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Didn’t someone say on here the new owners will splash the cash for Sir Saint Eddie?
     
  33. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss Squad Player

    Good, I can move on to hating Derby as much as I hate Muff.
     
  34. lutonh8a

    lutonh8a Reservist

    I agree we have a better squad than Norwich in my opinion so it would be a failure on our part, everyone keeps mentioning that they kept most of their players but they were not good enough for the Premier League anyway, they were by far the worst team and we were crap but did the double over them and comfortably finished above them.
    I always say it but I am not sure what the hype is about Brentford, I seem to catch them on an off day every time I watch them though I have seen them play about 6 times and they have been beat every time. They look decent going forward against crap defences but they have a crap defence themselves from what I have seen.
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
    lowerrous likes this.
  35. lowerrous

    lowerrous Squad Player

    Yep.
     

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