The Championship 2020-21

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Markoa$, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    I'm sure plenty of us would have taken a toss of a coin chance at promotion a few months ago when we were stuttering under Ivic. I assume you've factored in our potential opponents record in key matches, too? Brentford, for example?
     
  2. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    Think you've gone on quite a journey from it being recognised that mathematically we've failed at the playoffs more times than we haven't (which is a fact) to 'we can rule potential choking out as an issue' in one post.

    I think you'd have to be a bit mad to suggest we aren't a team that has an issue with choking in big stage one off games in recent years - it's happened time and time again. The FA Cup final, the previous FA Cup semi final, the Playoff final - we even choked winning the Championship title in the final minute of the final day.

    It doesn't mean we're guaranteed to choke any ensuing one-off, high-stakes game, or indeed playoff campaign, of course. But if we're looking back over the past and assessing the team/club in light of it, you can't just pretend it doesn't exist either.
     
  3. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    Have you considered all the other teams in history of sport that have won play offs? I think not.
     
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  4. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    But on a counter argument to those examples- we didn’t choke in getting promoted. We didn’t choke in our play off wins. We didn’t choke in the semi-final v Wolves. I think it’s more than fair that if we label ourselves as a team that chokes, then comparisons against other teams records in semi-finals, finals etc is a fair thing to do.
     
  5. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    There are further examples of choking though - the final day of the season against Leeds before those fateful playoffs in 12/13, say. You could also strongly argue that the game against West Ham during resumption last season, in desperate trouble against a direct relegation rival which, if won, would have saved us, instead allowing ourselves to lazily get banged up the ass, is a further clear choke moment.

    It's fine to say there are times we haven't, and, as I said in my post, it doesn't guarantee we will again, and nobody is claiming that we do every single time, ever. But we do have a significant tendency to do so, which is something we have to recognise - doing so internally could even help our chances not to again - and that's what's relevant, not a suggestion (that hasn't come from this end) that we have never not choked.

    As a sidenote, in terms of that Wolves semi final, it was the best moment I've been at in football and an incredible game, but we came close enough - we were 2-0 down in the 79th minute and going out of the cup entirely until the 94th, and the very next game, the far more impactful final, we choked as badly/worse than anyone else ever has in the same circumstances, so it's not an amazing counter to choking. And in terms of getting promoted, that's not the same thing, is it, because it was the result of a prolonged campaign over months, not one (or indeed two) off individual games.
     
  6. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I personally think our play-off record is irrelevant, broadly speaking the play-offs are made up of four teams with similar-ish ability, it’s relatively rare that you’d finish 3rd in the championship and at the same time be overwhelmingly better than the 3 teams below you to the extent that it’s a given that you’ll win them, and of course you could finish 4th,5th or 6th and in theory the odds will be slightly stacked against you anyway. As it’s like a mini cup, given the above you won’t win them all, even if every time you’re in them you’re the better team.

    The tendency for choking doesn’t have to be applied to like for like games, though. We choked in nearly all our remaining games last season when we had opportunity after opportunity to save ourselves. I think we choked yesterday, against a rival, a better team than we’d played for a few games.

    I’ve seen little evidence in the last year that we can overcome any sort of adversity, if we go behind in a playoff game the overwhelming evidence is that we won’t have the character or ability to overcome that. This is not a team that fights and scraps for everything, do you have the confidence that our players will want it more than the other three teams?

    And on the Wolves game, it was absolutely incredible, but their substitutions played a huge part in what happened. We couldn’t count on being so lucky in a similar situation again.
     
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  7. Pozzo Out

    Pozzo Out Squad Player

    Haven’t read the full thread but let’s take that into context.

    Deeney scored his 100th goal against Palace on Boxing Day 2016, correct?

    So that means in over 4 years he’s scored 31 goals.

    17 of those have been penalties.

    In over 4 years, he’s scored 14 non penalty goals in all comps. Including a single solitary one from open play this season.

    Wonderful if he was the best striker in the division by a mile for a couple of years 6/7 years ago, what’s he done on recent form? Genuinely.

    As others have alluded to, he’s played a decent chunk of this season and limited the team heavily. He’s not suitable for any type of game anymore for a serious team in this division based on what he’s produced this season.
     
  8. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    Fair.
    Sport dictates you stay in the now.
    Been a great servant to us but then the club has been good for him too.
    He can still be influential this season but more as a leader in the dressing room rather than the pitch.
    That ship,as you say,has sailed.
     
  9. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Suppose it depends on your definition of 'key' games, but I'd say semi finals, finals, and games that can define a season by their result. Was quite fun/depressing thinking back through them actually.


    12/13 Leeds (H): Choke
    12/13 Leicester play off: Not Choke
    12/13 Palace final: Choke
    14/15 Brighton (A): Not Choke
    14/15 Sheff Wed (H): Choke
    15/16 Palace (Cup Semi): Choke
    18/19 Wolves (Cup Semi): Not Choke
    18/19 Man City (Cup final): Choke (didn't show up, but never really stood a chance)
    19/20 Arsenal (H): Choke

    I suppose you could include the loss against West Ham, but by the same token you could include the win against Middlesbrough in the promotion season etc.

    We've had quite a lot of key games for a club of our size over the past few years, but in our time in the PL we didn't have many because we'd usually got the job done by February.

    I'd be interested to know how our record in big-pressure games lines up with Brentford/Swansea/Reading etc
     
  10. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    The best in every sport choke at some time although it depends upon your definition of 'choke'.
    Is it to under perform or to miss big chances,a penalty, a chance such as RP had in the cup final or the two very good ones Abdi had v SW?
    Is it to switch off and lose concentration as yesterday?
    It's probably all of the above on different occasions and as WT points out we have many big matches in recent years compared to our size of club.
    I've seen Federer,Djokovic,Nadal,Murray,you name them all choke in big matches yet three of the four are considered amongst the best of the game,one may well win that accolade in time.
    It goes with the territory but it's certainly better to have younger players in big matches. They have less 'baggage' but it can affect you at any time,start,middle end of a match.
    Face your fear and accept it's part of sport.
    There's no shame in it.
    "Pressure is a privilege" as the great lady said.
     
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  11. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Just taken a quick look at the 3 you mention plus our friends on the south coast and if the play offs are going to be decided on choke status we will be fine.

    Will put their big games in here later unless someone does it before me.
     
  12. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    Oh yes I played that game yesterday in my despair!
    'PLAFC' have fewer against the play off places but they do have teams in and around or in form,such as Bristol City and Barnsley.
     
  13. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Assuming the play-off spots stay as they are this is the points record for games against each other:

    Watford 1/12

    Swansea 5/12

    Reading 7/12

    Bournemouth 8/12

    Ours is comfortably the worst, therefore something will need to change significantly for us to win the play-offs.

    The fact we have a new manager is pretty irrelevant considering his record is played 2 lost 2, Ivic did at least earn the one solitary point we have.
     
  14. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Squad Player

    You and others seem to be forgetting that many of the current team was not heavily, if at all, involved in the miserable failure to avoid relegation last season. Pedro and Cleverley didn't play much, Bachmann only in the cup, Sema was on loan, and several players (one of which, Sierralta, is one of our best players so far, and at least two others, Zinckernagel and Gosling, may play a key part) and there are a few others that didn't seem to have much stomach or bottle for the fight who are gone. You haven't seen much evidence because the team is yet to really be in that kind of situation, and your "overwhelming evidence" seems to be based on what's happened in the past with largely different personnel.
     
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  15. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Yes but see my post immediately above, the current team have obviously been involved in all relevant games this season, and have achieved one point against the teams that occupy the play-off spots. Our manager is 2 losses out of 2 against play-off rivals, we’ve got 1 win against the top 6 all season.
     
  16. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    What does the /12 represent here? Bournemouth have played us twice, Reading twice and Swansea once, so that would be /15, no?

    Also it's pretty pointless to limit your evidence to the 4 teams who happen to 3rd-6th today. Barnsley are 1 point off Bournemouth with a game in hand. Swansea would bring Brentford into it if they win their games in hand. Plus the fact that there's 13 games to play, with every club in the top 6 still to play a top 6 rival at least twice(?) in the next few weeks.

    Swap Brentford and Barnsley with Swansea and Bournemouth and suddenly we look a little more positive, but really it means very little at this stage. Even more so in the context of the actual play off matches.
     
  17. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    12 points, we haven’t played Reading twice.

    it’s the evidence available so far, I think it’s also fairly pointless to bring could’ve/would’ve/should’ve into it. Those are the facts as it currently stands.
     
  18. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Where did I say we've played Reading twice?

    It's picking and choosing, with a sample size too small to garner much useful information from. But I think you know that. You're trying to make the point that we massively struggle against teams currently at the top of the table, and have intentionally removed Norwich, Brentford and Barnsley from the equation, because we've gained 7 points from them and it goes against your theory.
     
  19. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Sorry I miss understood, so yes Bournemouth should be 8/15.

    We can include Norwich and Brentford if you want, that would give us 1 win against the top 6 all season.

    I don’t need to manipulate anything, our record against the top 6 is bad, are you saying 1 win against them is anything other than bad?

    I’m not sure what Barnsley have got to do with anything? They aren’t and haven’t been in the top 6 all season? Yes they’re in good form, but as we know form is very temporary in the championship. We just won four on the spin, did that automatically mean we would get in the top 2?
     
  20. lutonh8a

    lutonh8a Squad Player

    Barnsley are only one point behind Bournemouth seems quite obvious to me why he mentioned them.
     
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  21. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Ok, we can include them if you want but it doesn’t really help matters as they’ve also beaten us, why stop at 7th, Cardiff in 8th have also beaten us.

    We’ve won 2 games against the top 8 and lost games to all but 2 of them. We’ll need to win 2/3 games against them to win the playoffs when we’ve only achieved that many wins in 9 attempts.
     
  22. foxywfc

    foxywfc Reservist

    Why all this talk of play offs? Waste of time, we’re going up automatically.
    Lol
    On a serious note results prior mean nothing all about form and luck in the lottery of the final.
    How many times has a club come from nowhere to climb up the table grab that last spot and won promotion? Not just in championship but all the leagues. We done it once under GOD.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  23. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Reading have 7 points in 9 games against the current top 6. (0.7 PPG)

    Watford have 5 points in 6 games against the current top 6. (0.8 PPG)

    Using your logic we should breeze past Reading if we meet them in the Play offs and then we've potentially got a one-off game against Brentford, who we drew against. Anyone's game!

    I just don't see why so many are seemingly writing off not just top 2 (3 points off with 13 games to play) but also the play-offs. Every team's record against the top 6 will change massively by the end of the season, and so will the make up of the top 6 itself.

    As a club we get a promotion challenge on average once every what, 10 years? Enjoy the ride!
     
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  24. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Whichever way you slice it we have a poor record against the teams we’ll very likely be facing in the play-offs. We have 2 wins against the top 8.

    Something will have to dramatically change for us to either get autos, because 3 of our last four games are against the current top 4, or to win the playoffs, because we will need to win at least 2 out of 3 games to win them.

    Obviously I very much want us to get promoted, I’m just being realistic when reviewing all the evidence surrounding how we’ve performed against the teams we will ultimately need to beat multiple times in the next 13 or more games to achieve promotion.
     
  25. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Fair enough. If we repeat our results against Norwich, Brentford, Swansea and Reading, we'd have 64 points with 9 other games. Average total for 2nd place is around 87 points so we'd likely need 8 wins from those other 9. Tough, but doable, even without improving our record against the top 6. But yes, we can make it easier for ourselves if we up our game against them
     
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  26. WatfordTalk

    WatfordTalk First Team

    Just to build on the discussion with @a19tgg yesterday; we've played 6 games against the current top 6 this season. We've lost the xG battle (expected goals for vs expected goals against) in 3 of them, and won the battle in 3 of them.

    Reading (A) - Lost
    Bournemouth (H) - Lost
    Brentford (H) - Lost
    Norwich (H) - Won
    Swansea (A) - Won
    Bournemouth (H) - Won

    Interesting that all our xG losses came under Ivic, and our 3 wins came under Xisco.

    Personally I don't give too much weight to xG but I know some do, so maybe reason to be optimistic in a play-off scenario.

    Credit to Louorns for compiling the stats
     
  27. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Whoever goes up this season will be utterly destroyed in the prem next season.
     
  28. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Squad Player

    Except us. We’re winning the Prem after going unbeaten all season.
     
  29. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Maybe, don’t people say this every season though?

    What makes the league so much stronger this season (and by extension next) compared to last?

    Newcastle and Brighton are performing almost identically to last season, Burnley and Southampton are worse. The bottom three have less points that is lot at this stage last season.
     
  30. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Only the mahousive clubs are staying up now. AV are back, Leeds are back. Little old watford, Muff, Norwich, Cardiff, Hudders are being replaced by Villa, Leeds. Brighton are 4th/5th bottom and look real quality. Soton are streets ahead of us. Brighton, Newcastle and Soton are much larger clubs than us. The 3 promoted clubs will be in the bottom 5 next season, maybe the bottom 3.
     
  31. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    Perverse as it may sound, I think Norwich will struggle more than others.
    Aarons will leave, the Creme Fraiche Queen has said as much. I would expect Bon Jovi to move too.
    Skipp will return to the Brown Lumpy Things.
     
  32. Rookery Refugee

    Rookery Refugee Reservist

    I think choking is used far, far too often. There are two highly motivated teams trying to win the game. All to often fans who are upset that there team has lost use the term choke as a means of lashing out. As an example, in the brilliant double-save-Hogg-Deeney goal, did the opposition choke, or were we brilliant, or somewhere in the middle? I'm sure their fans say choke. Ours have a different view.
     
  33. HornetMan

    HornetMan Academy Graduate

    Norwich will continue their tradition of promotion immediately followed by relegation and Brentford will be fine (similar to us in 2015/16)

    In terms of the playoffs, like a post above me said it is all about luck. The playoffs are a lottery, it comes down to how you do on the day. You could conceivably scrape 6th and then win the whole thing, just as much as you could be 2nd all season and be pipped by 3rd on the final day, and then lose both legs of the semi-finals.

    Personally I don't think this team will be able to hack the playoffs, I really doubt we'd be able to hold our nerve
     
  34. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    If they lose those players, they will re-invest. Would we lose Sarr and Pedro ? Hopefully we can retain Gray and Deeney.
     
  35. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Squad Player

    To tie in with Smudger’s post, all but one of those games were played before we finally changed the system and started playing with the creativity and tempo with which this team can play. Granted, Saturday wasn’t very encouraging given Bournemouth are one of the weakest of the teams likely to finish in the top six, but we might do OK against teams that are more sporting and let us play more (OK, Swansea and/or Norwich may frustrate us, but they won’t be cynical like Muff were).
     

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