They are all physical players, but what they offer is too limited. I don't really see the point in retaining them if they are not contributing more. Being cheap and a squad player is all well and good, but they've got to be able to play at a Premier League level when called upon. When any of these players enter the field of play you know more often than not, nothing is going to happen. When it gets to that stage, there's very little point in having them around. IMO. A good example is Gray. He's not good enough to start, but when he comes on he does give you a bit of hope. When any of those three I mentioned come on, it has the opposite effect.
We aren't a Man City, we simply can't afford to bring high-quality players in every position off the bench. We are not alone in this, if you look at the clubs around our "level" like Bournemouth, Newcastle, Palace they're in exactly the same boat. Newcastles backup striker was Joselu, terrible - 2 goals in 16 apps last season. Backup wingers were Kenedy (who failed terribly here) and Jacob Murphy (not a bad player but has been incredibly ineffective in the PL so far). Palaces backup strikers were Connor Wickham and Bakary Sako. Backup wingers were Schlupp or McArthur. Bournemouths backup strikers were Mousset + Solanke (34 apps between them last season - 1 goal) whilst their backup wingers were Stanislas and Ibe. I picked 3 random teams as an example, but it'll be the same for pretty much every team outside the top 6 (bar maybe Wolves, Everton + Leicester due to being richer than other clubs). Any proper quality and game-changers start matches as the money simply isn't there to get quality backup in those positions.
We will not be buying a proven striker to start, they are out of our price range. At best we will keep making cheap punts and hope that one comes good though development with us. Though there's always this guy ?
We can do better than Okaka, Sema and Success. It's not a criticism of the club, as I know exactly what they are up against, but we need to find a better fit for the team. It doesn't mean we need to spend like Man City, but look at Bournemouth. They have quite a few good strikers, and they have managed to keep them. Wilson grew with the club, but Bournemouth have kept hold of him which is a feat in itself. King would walk into our side too. I don't believe for one second that we cannot get better, and I know we can and have done in the past. Charlie Austin is available for around £8m from Southampton. Welbeck is available as well for free. Ok, these may not be perfect, but we're only really looking short term here. We've got decent players in the pipeline such as Cucho and Pedro, but they will not be available this season. We just need some better forward options than we currently have. Whether we can afford it is another thing, but we do need to do it if we're going to have a successful season. In the Premier League, you're only really as good as your strikers.
What do Wilson + King have to do with it? They're both starters - they're not backup options. I personally would hate for us to spend £8m on a 30-year-old Charlie Austin who has scored less than 10 goals in his last 2 seasons of football combined - that's only marginally better than Okakas record (although Austin has played 600 more minutes) or Danny "made of glass" Welbeck who is 28 and has never hit double figures for goals in a PL season. We scored the 11th most goals in the PL last season, which seems to suggest that for now (until as you say Cucho or Joao Pedro are ready), our striking options will do.
Agreed. If we can afford an established striker, there will be a good reason we can afford them. We need to invest in promising young kids and hope that we can "grow" our own and then hold onto them for a few years before they move on. Success and Penaranda have not developed as hoped and Okaka was always an odd buy to replace Vydra, presumably only ever intended as a cheap back up. The question will be whether Stuparavic(?), Pedro, Cucho etc can develop with us or end up like Success and Pen.
Personally I think it’s very clear that the club think that Deulofeu is the striker to score the bulk of our goals and that they and Gracia are happy with Gray and Deeney as the foil to that until Cucho/JP arrive and are ready. Success is there for cover and Okaka will be moved on. Personally I’m a bit gutted that Okaka has been taken on tour and Cassidy left at home though. Welbeck and Austin - just no, even though I agree they are better than Success and Okaka. But funds are limited to an extent and will be focussed elsewhere and shouldn’t be spent on players who aren’t intended to be first choice. Let’s not forget Lukebakio and the chance that a new winger could also adapt to be a striker of sorts.
I'm not talking about back-up options. I'm talking about the attacking unit as a whole. We have Deulofeu and Pereyra who are certainly quality players. Deeney is decent enough in what he does, but he's not prolific, and that's about it. It's head scratching time when you're looking at viable options. That's the entire attacking unit right across the line. We only have three players to play in three positions. It's not enough. Heaven forbid we get an injury to Deulofeu or Deeney. We're done for if that happens, and this is something we need to get away from. We're not strong enough, and there's no one in the entire squad that can finish good chances on a regular basis. This is our downfall and is an area where we need to do some work and improve on. Both Austin and Welbeck are proven, and would certainly enhance the squad is it stands currently. They are only examples, and I'm not saying these are necessarily players we should get, but we could improve the squad without too much problem and we don't need to be Man City in order to do it. When you see someone like Okaka, Sema or Success in the team or coming on as sub, it's a bit deflating. For that reason I'm saying they are not really viable options for the club. We're striving to become a good solid mid-table team. Other parts of the squad are at that level, which takes up a lot of slack, but in order to really be a strong mid-table side, we need more quality to call on in the attacking third.
You realise you couldn't be contradicting yourself more here right? We have 3 players to play in 3 positions - aka the starting players. Anything more than that is.....backup.
No....it's a squad game. You need to have players that can interchange who are the same or very nearly the same quality or standard of player. It's like having only one keeper or just two central defenders or just one left back etc. The gap between Okaka, Success and Sema is far too wide to the likes of Pereyra, Deulofeu and Deeney. The only player who really bridges that gap is Gray. Gray can be a first choice if the coach wants to play him and you can get away with him playing. You cannot ever play Okaka, Success or Sema as a first choice, because if you did the quality of the side would dramatically fall. The coach needs to have a choice. Of course he will pick who he likes, but he needs to be given a viable choice of who to play. Right now the team picks itself. We need to be in a position where the six forward players on the books are far closer together in terms of quality.
And now we've gone full circle. That gap is the same for every club outside the top 6 (bar Everton, Wolves + Leicester), we don't have the money to do otherwise.
I don't agree. We can do better than those three players. Saying we just cannot afford it, is just a lame excuse. It's the same type of excuse that was made when we were in the Championship. "We cannot afford to buy a team that will get us promoted", but we did. "We cannot buy good strikers" but we signed Richarlison. "We cannot sign proven players of quality", but we signed Pereyra and Deulofeu. "We cannot attract bright young talent", but we signed Quina, Pedro and Cucho. It's not true to say we cannot afford to sign better forward players.
So who do we sign then HB1 ? Accepting that Austin and Welbeck would be very expensive buys, probably wouldn't start, and would have no resale value ?
I agree with that bit, which is why your suggestion that we should sign Austin and Welbeck is laughable when they're not even really any better than what we already have.
Totally agree but unfortunately we won’t be purchasing another out and out striker. If we are to keep either Success or Okaka I go for Okaka.
We didn't, we loaned a team. Richarlison was a gamble - the same as Success, Pedro + Cucho. Richarlison paid off, Success hasn't and the jury is out for Pedro and Cucho. Ok, I get your point here - but this is very dependent on the market and requires a lot of things to go our way - as much as i'd like real life to be like Football Manager, it isn't. Uhhh who said that? That's like our entire model. Whilst it's not strictly true, for the most part, proven absolute quality strikers that are in their prime are out of our budget. West Ham just spent £45m on a striker from Eintracht Frankfurt. Could we go the Austin and Welbeck route? Sure, but they'll be on expensive wages, haven't had the best of luck in terms of recent goals and have no resale value. Is that worth the investment upwards of £10m that it would cost (in wages + sign on bonus + possible fee) in them for 1 season until either (or both if we're lucky) Cucho + Pedro join the squad? The short answer is no.
In all this discussion about our attacking unit, we can only judge it right now on what we have and exclude incoming or outgoing deals... In which case, I would be fairly certain that Lukebakio will be ahead of Success and Okaka.
While I agree with the majority of your counter argument, I don’t agree with this point. Under the Pozzo regime, Watford have signed young players but have rarely thrust them straight in. There’s little to suggest right now that JP and Cucho will be any different. They have drip fed Wilmot games. They don’t call up any of our own kids. We just didn’t seem to trust young players. However Richarlison was thrown straight in. I don’t think he was much of a gamble and the owner and manager knew that. I think they knew what they had.
There are plenty of players out there who are better than Okaka, Success and Sema. Unless you're having difficulty in accepting that? It's not a question of who we sign, it's a question of signing at least more player at the level of Pereyra, Deulofeu, Deeney but with a pedigree for taking chances. I've said short term, so we could easily afford Austin or Welbeck as a short term fix. I use these two as they've played in the Premier League and could hit the ground running with a low transfer fee/free. But there are plenty of players in Europe that could come in a do a job for us, but it's not my decision on who the club should go for. As a fan I can see there is a shortfall in the squad in terms of quality up front. If you cannot see that, then I'm happy for you to have that opinion, but it's not one I hold. It's frustrating, that just for the lack of taking simple chances we missed out on some really good results. We lost games we should have won and this is a major problem. He doesn't have to be Aguero, but he does need to be competent in front of goal. We have no one who is competent in front of goal, with a goal sniffing ability. Gray is the best at getting into good positions, but his finishing is sub-standard and will never improve at his age.
Those backup wingers are far superior to Ken Sema in my view. I think many of those are effective when they come off the bench and look useful when they start. Strikers I agree are at the same level as our duds, although Solanke has scope to rapidly improve. If we start the season with Okaka, Success and Sema all in the squad it would feel to me like we are standing still. They are proven failures and I’d rather we took a punt on some Wilmot types from the lower leagues. I suspect the reason they will be here is that nobody will take them at the wages they are on so we may have little option but to persevere with them.
I wouldn't lump Okaka and Sema in with Success. Both Stefano and Ken are limited, but they have some function. Isaac doesn't do the basics because he's too lazy and non-comittal to be useful. In fact, he weakens us when he comes on, more than adds anything.
Yeah it's a bit erratic - Quina has played a lot (until his injury) for his age and as you say Richarlison was chucked in at the deep end (and managed to swim!). I think it's a mix of quality and also who's ahead of them in the pecking order - I'm not sure giving Wilmot game-time in DM for the sake of it when we have quality options in Capoue/Doucoure/Cleverley is a great idea (although it does pain me to say that as someone who loves youth development). Richarlison only really got his break due to injury I think (Pereyra?) but yes, it was clear he had quality, if a little raw. Same for the academy kids, when we release them they go off to League 2 or worse and haven't done much (only differing examples are O'Nien and Byers who have both done well since leaving) which suggests they were never of the quality required which is unsurprising considering our catchment area.
I can’t believe after we drew 2-2 with Bournemouth under Wally I though Success was going to be our greatest ever player!
no player infuriates me more. the Arsenal home game could have been a one off, but he repeated the lack of interest in all subsequent appearances. I don't rate Sema, but at least he's a trier. Isaac has no business being in our squad, whilst he insists on giving such low effort levels.
Again, a lot of it comes down to contract length. Sema was a cheap punt. But he could easily have been given a 2/3 year deal max. If he came in and was amazing, I doubt it would have been hard to extend it after 6 months. Okaka was given a 5 year deal after being a bit of a journeyman/nomad with little prolific scoring record. Success was given a 5 year deal LAST SEASON! Why? What had he done to possible earn that? It’s like we are scared that these players will leave us and then go on to be world beaters so we handcuff them to us for as long as possible, regardless of form or ability. With sensible contract offers, we could have been rid of these players now or in the not too distant future.
They're very different types of players though. Javi seems dead-set on playing two up top where one is more a hold-up man, and the other is more of an off-the-shoulder player (last season Deeney and Deulofeu). So much so that even the two forward combinations chosen yesterday went with the same dynamic, e.g. Okaka in the Deeney role, and Gray in the Deulofeu role, then Success and Deulofeu in the second half. Given that, I don't see that if Lukebakio arrives he will be competing for the same forward spot as Success and Okaka. His style is much more like Deulofeu and Gray in that he'd rather play off the shoulder and isn't so suited to having his back to goal. We'd have to vary our style a bit to accommodate both Deulofeu and Lukebakio up top together - it could work somehow, but they could also lose the ball too often in duels with CBs thus not helping us relieve pressure and get up the pitch.
Yes I'm having trouble there are better players out there that we can afford and that it makes sense to buy. Do you still think Austin and Welbeck would be good investments given their age, salary and resale value ? Anyone else ?
I'd suggested Wesley before he ended up at Villa for £22mil. Supposedly Wolves are now in talks for Cutrone of Milan for £20mil. Both would have obviously required us to slightly break our transfer record, and would have had some risk attached, but would have ultimately been good, feasible buys I reckon with resale value and potential to develop. We've been linked as well with Mateta of Mainz, though he'd likely cost a bit more. I'm not a huge fan of Che Adams, he reminds me too much of Deeney and Gray, but he cost Saints £15mil and unlike the other two likely at least has his best years ahead of him still. Cagliari appear to be paying £10mil for Gregoire Defrel, who we've been linked with in the past. Though at 28 years old now we'd probably choose to steer clear. West Ham are paying £40mil for Haller, which is clearly way above our budget, but he's class. Newcastle appear to be paying £35mil for Joelinton, which seems a bit of a joke in comparison to the signings mentioned above. One way of another, our lack of outlay on a striker in the last two summers appears to be rather anomalous for the league.
I think the truth is that any striker of attainable stature will see 2 key things: 1. That their likely route to regular first XI football is blocked by Deeney and Deulofeu. We already have Gray on the books who is likely frustrated by that - why add more? 2. When you take the above point into consideration, there are very few players I doubt who think it’s a good thing to be a squad/backup player for Watford. Now, the opportunity could be sold as ‘everyone is equal and if you deserve to play, you will’ - but that’s not really true. Deeney is captain and when available, started 99% of Gracia’s games to date. And Deulofeu is our best player. The likes of Austin and Welbeck may be better than Okaka and Success, I’d even say Welbeck is better than Deeney when fit. But that’s it, he rarely is. And the PL has many teams bigger than us who would take the punt on his wages knowing they can afford to pay them even if they only get 5 games from him. Austin would cost £8m of our likely tight-budget and doesn’t offer enough for him to be worth it given the above parameters. I agree it shouldn’t be hard to get better quality than Deeney. But there are things to consider - a fairly budget option will unlikely be seen as a replacement. I think to have enough muster to shift Deeney from the team, a player needs to be coming in with a reputation for goals, fitness etc - that costs money. And would take the bulk of our funds. And they are needed right now for more key areas. It’s just a guess on my part, but I still think the club are fairly certain on Joao Pedro being able to come into the team very quickly. So will make do until then. IF, we were to want a player who fits in with parameters I think we have, I’d say Kemar Roofe at Leeds is a better bet. Younger, still homegrown and cheaper wages. Apparently Rangers and another club were quoted £6m.
Consider the money we have wasted on players like Oulare €8.2m, Okaka €6m, Sinclair £4m, Success €15m. It's a lot of money and zilch return. I don't think resale value is something we are really concerned about with every transfer. We spent £7m on signing Janmaat. So far, we're letting his contract run down. Cleverley was signed for £8m. He's got no resale value now. Gray was signed for £18.5m. You'd never get anything like that for him now. I'm sure if the club wanted to sign either Austin or Welbeck, resale value would not be a consideration. They would be good investments if they did their bit on the pitch. That's the bottom line. Does the player offer something to the first team? If the answer is no, then you have to move them on and try someone else. It's not a question of repeatedly listing possible transfer targets, as I'm not a football scout, but to say there's not a better player out there that we can afford is just not true. Deulofeu and Pereyra have proved that. If we are able to sign players of that calibre, then it stands to reason we can do it again, at an affordable price.
