Southampton 2-1 Watford FC - 30/11/2019

Discussion in 'Match Day' started by Grrwood, Nov 25, 2019.

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Who will emerge victorious in the War of the Worst?

Poll closed Dec 1, 2019.
  1. Southampton

    40.6%
  2. Watford

    17.8%
  3. Dull draw in a "last on MOTD" affair

    18.8%
  4. Definitely not football

    22.8%
  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    We're odds-on with every bookmaker, so I think they already know. It's a loss-leader for them.
     
  2. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Some people have argued with his "stats" on various threads.
     
  3. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    And Norwich are even more likely than us to go down based on the odds, so presumably that is two loss leaders. They are very sneaky all of these betting firms.
     
  4. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Norwich are down as well. Just because you don't want to accept it, doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

    Instead I suggest you look towards next season. It could be an extremely enjoyable one.
     
  5. luke_golden

    luke_golden Space Cadet

    I honestly hope we don’t stay up. I’m not sure I can face an entire summer of hb1 trying to prove that he was right, even though we eventually survived.
     
  6. StuBoy

    StuBoy Forum Cad and Bounder

    The worst is yet to come. I'm flashing forward now a year and we've lost at home 0-3 to Lut*n (who stay up this season), and we are sat 22nd or something in the Championship. You think you've seen meltdowns now, wait until this time next year...
     
  7. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    To be clear, I do expect us to go down. I fully accept that. But to say we have 0% chance of staying up is so obviously not true it needs to be called out. This is the last I will post on this matter on this thread otherwise it will just go round and round in circles.
     
    Spoad, Forzainglese and Happy bunny like this.
  8. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    That would be a horror for sure, but I think we'll do extremely well next season.

    My only concern would be how an aging squad cope with the rigours of regular football, plus the acceptance they are no longer Premier League players.

    But I think we'd retain the bulk of our squad, which in itself tells you it's not really Premier League in quality, but in the Championship they'd be excellent.

    Our forward line would instantly be feared. Deeney, Gray, Sarr, Success, Welbeck, Pedro and even Cucho would be extremely good in the second tier.

    Wilmot will be given a chance, Quina would be very good also. Chalobah, Hughes and Cleverly I expect would all stay.

    The only obvious players to go would be Deulofeu, Pereyra and maybe Doucoure and Capoue. However, Capoue and Doucs may not be so obvious to go. They are commodities and the club would not sell on the cheap.

    I think Gino would give Watford one season, as a Premier League side operating in the Championship. With the parachute payments we could afford that.
     
  9. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    You think we're going down. So do I, so I'm not sure why the debate? Just the degrees of certainty I suppose. But down is down.
     
  10. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I was with you until the last bit. We can't afford to operate as a Premier League club in the Premier League. The finances show that. I think there's little prospect of us being able to do it in the Championship.

    Parachute payment in Year 1 is c£42m. That's about 45% of what we'll get if we finish 20th this season.
     
  11. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    We can absolutely afford to do that. Don't forget we'll probably get around £50m plus for Pereyra and Deulofeu. Maybe more if we sell another "star" player. I don't see why there would be any reason not to be able maintain a large squad, on Premier League wages, for a one-off season.
     
  12. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Lets hope they don't have cheap get out clauses triggered by relegation eh?
     
  13. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Would Gino have given a clause in a contract like that? From what I know of how he does contracts, a clause like that will not be in there. But if there is, then these players will be sold in January. In fact, I suspect Perayra will go in this winter window because his contract is running down.
     
  14. reids

    reids First Team

    I'd imagine half the clubs in the PL regularly put clauses in like that. Otherwise you end up in a Rodwell like situation with players leeching 60k a week without playing.
     
  15. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I'd imagine if we have a clause to reduce their wages on relegation the top players would expect an insurance policy of their own in return.
     
  16. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    That's entirely possible, but if that is the case, then I would expect those players will be sold, or we'll look to sell, in January. We're only talking about 2 or 3 players though, as the vast majority of our squad could fit easily into the Championship.
     
  17. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    Sorry but I really don't get this and I am more worried than I've been before but that is ridiculous. One third of the way through the season and 5 points from safety and only 7 points from 12th and that's it. No chance at all. It's your opinion and I know we are not in a good place but god I'm happy I don't feel like this.
     
  18. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Squad Player

    Leicester stuffed these 9-0. Unfortunately we aren't half the team Leicester are, therefore my prediction is:

    Prediction

    Southampton 0-4 Watford
    Capoue 37, Deeney (62, 71, 88)
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  19. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    I understand you pessimism but disagree with your certainty. If you take your reasoning then Liverpool have already won the league and the other 3 in the top 4 are decided. Why doesn’t the league give up playing now and free up time for the super teams to concentrate on their European fixtures?
     
  20. onion8837

    onion8837 Reservist

    A glimmer of hope....Lawrenson predicts a defeat for us
     
  21. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I always knew we were 44.444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444% of the team Leicester are.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  22. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I actually feel sorry for you, in the fact that I've come to terms with it and I'm actually excited about next season. The longer you cling on to this notion we might come good, the harder it will be to accept it when we don't.

    Why would a team that has won only once in the past 17 Premier League matches, suddenly morph into one that is able to win every other game. It's ludicrous to think this might happen. I'm not saying there isn't an outside possibility as you can never say never in football. We have a chance of winning the FA Cup every season, but never do. Our chances of staying up are similar to that of winning the FA Cup. Possible but highly unlikely.
     
  23. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Liverpool will win the league. Watford and Norwich will be relegated. I am certain because evidence to the contrary has not been presented. For arguments sake, if we win the next three matches, my opinion will change, because something new and tangible has been presented.

    You have to be realistic and pragmatic. Until Watford play in a manner that has been missing since about March, then there is no reason to expect a hopeful outcome, and from what I can see, there is no reason to expect Watford's form to dramatically improve. Wishing it to happen is not enough sadly.
     
  24. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    I doubt Sarr would play in The Championship. I doubt we'd keep Gray on those wages. Success wouldn't be successful anywhere right now.

    Welbeck won't suddenly be fit in a new league. Pedro & Cucho are total unknown quantities in this country, nobody can say with their chest that they will be "extremely good" in the second tier.

    Capoue will be 32 next summer and his contract expires on his 34th birthday, that's not a commodity, he'd be sold for £7-8 million max and probably to a promoted side if he was to stay in the Prem.

    You're not making any sense HB1.
     
    Pozzo Out and reids like this.
  25. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    You don't agree, that's fine, but it makes perfect sense.

    Who would come in for Sarr for more than the £30m odd million we spent on him? Who would pay a transfer fee for Welbeck with his injury record? Who would match Gray's wages? You see, when you look into it many players at the club could not better themselves, or we would not sell because we wouldn't get the transfer fee we would demand.

    Only the players who could easily play for other high level clubs would go. The rest are better off at Watford. I think the owner would certainly be looking to keep the squad together for a one-off season. If we didn't go up, then he'd have to look at restructuring for a second season in the Championship.

    Like I said previously, we could afford to act like a Premier League side, in the Championship for one season and I think this is how we'd approach it.
     
  26. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    This is not out of the realms of possibility or even the very possible. You build a team from the back and we are very very poor there.
    Most flair players will go upon relegation in midfield and we are light or **** upfront.
    We will struggle in that league. Luton will fight and will genuinely be up for playing us, our players will not give a damn.
     
  27. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    I think I have now genuinely come to accept we are going down. In all probability we will also have another 1-2 bad seasons in the championship.
    We arent going to suddenly repair the gapping holes and imbalance and bad attitude of this squad.
     
  28. reids

    reids First Team

    Except football and the transfer market doesn't work like that.
     
  29. Eugh!! It's not bad enough that we get relegated. They have to win the league as well in the same season.

    Not sure I can take both.
     
  30. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Agreed, there's absolutely no way Sarr would play Championship football, he'd be loaned out with an option to buy - anyone thinking otherwise is off their rocker.
     
    PowerJugs and Steve Leo Beleck like this.
  31. I'm still holding out hope we win this and draw Leicester.

    I know qdf will play negative defensive tactics. But I still feel we have enough.

    First goal is obviously crucial as always. If we'd have gone ahead v Burnley when we were miles on top then I wholeheartedly believe we would've won that game at a canter.

    Same will be with southampton I think.

    Leicester play on the break. Score a goal early on and compact the defence and midfield and hold on. They may score one but we draw.

    Then Palace.

    I will not lose hope. Not yet.
     
  32. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Corrected for you: “Liverpool should win the league.”
    • Liverpool blew a similar lead last year, but held later in the season.
    • They have been sneaking wins this year which in one sense is a sign of physical strength, but also opens them up to risk if they can’t keep on getting late goals.
    • There expected points based on the chances created would be 11 less than they have, which suggests they are currently over performing. If they can keep it up fine, but there is a won’t.
    • They have a very heavy fixture list in December and may pick up some injuries. If they happen to key players it could knock them off balance.
     
  33. Rookery Refugee

    Rookery Refugee Reservist

    Given the raft of injuries at the back, for those of you who may have seen the youngsters play, which of those CBs might be the most ready? It seems almost certain that at least one will need to be on the bench.
     
  34. LaClusazSki

    LaClusazSki Reservist

    Relegation would leave us up s**t creek, both financially on income and players.
    Welbeck and Chalobah are finished
    AD,RP and GD will go, but not for the money touted on here,far less.
    Capoue, too lazy for most clubs in the Premier league.
    A clear out of players, backroom staff and the blazer brigade will happen once relegation is confirmed.
    If the parachute payment is just £42 million as quoted on here, the Pozzo family will struggle to pay wages and service their debts. They have gambled on Premier league placement money cover the money they have borrow this season.
    If only the Red Bull interest rumour were true.
    Tomorrow's game. I would love a win, but l think it will be 3-0 or 4-0 to the Saints.
    Arsenal have sacked Emery. QSF will go if we lose.
     
    Chumlax likes this.
  35. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    I don't think any of the u23 defenders are ready. Maybe a midfielder or an attacker at a stretch.
     

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