Something Doesn't Add Up

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by RMT79, Nov 1, 2020.

  1. RMT79

    RMT79 First Year Pro

    I may have this all wrong.... but hear me out.

    Didn't the club re-finance and get a loan from Barclays to cover the loss of revenue post relegation, or did I read this wrong ?

    We have sold Doucoure for £25m, Estupinan for £15m and Suarez for £15m, Pereyra £8.1m (according to transfer market)..... our wage bill is further reduced with the loss of Deulofeu (loan), Puesetto (loan) Sinclair (loan), Peneranda (loan), Dahleberg (loan), Welbeck (Released), Jaanmat (Rleased), Mariappa (Released). Dawson (free for Ngakia) Then there is the Cleverly re-negotiated contract.

    Transfer fee: £68m
    Wage saving: A total I would estimate a saving of circa £400k a week or £20.1m a year
    Total £87.25m

    I haven't even factored in contractual wage drops for relegation .... as not sure who that applies too .... but say that's worth another £5m in savings across the squad.

    We have an income in terms of parachute payments of circa £60m this year + around £15m from the Championship

    We have bought in Ngakia - offset by Dawson, Troost-Ekong (£5m maybe)..... Perica (£5m maybe)..... Garner Loan and Murray Loan .... not sure I am missing anyone

    I get the Covid situation and loss of matchday revenue at a guess I would say thats about (£25m a season) ...... but in a black and white view we should be cash rich right now albeit with a large debt to Barclays ..... which of course we could be paying off as we go ?

    So I dont understand why, if we are that determined to get back into the premier league we haven't spent a bean unless its to Udinese .... or a the odd loan fee.

    Yes we have kept Sarr and Hughes but apart from that just about everyone was ok to leave for the right deal ..... Add this to the most cagey of at your places I have ever witnessed and i just wonder if we are in negotiations for a takeover and that's why we haven't committed too much financially outside the Pozzo group ?

    I know there is a huge loss losing Prem status and I know Muff and Norwich aren't splashing the cash either ..... but have they shifted as much as us ? have they re-structured their finances ? I don't know ?

    Something is very unstable at the club and I have nothing more than a feeling that change at the top maybe afoot and we maybe in negotiations with a new owner (hence keep a few gems, balance the books, make us look a great proposition to buy). If its not that and everything I have written is complete waffle (likely) perhaps I just have to accept that we are complete rubbish and all our players bar about 3 or 4 are absolutely diabolically crap !!

    thoughts ???
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  2. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I think you’ve kind of answered your own question, we’re about £60m down so have had to cut around £60m of costs, which we have more or less done.

    You then have to factor in that we very possibly won’t go up and in year two the parachute payments drop down lower again. Decisions made regarding spending have to be made with that in mind, otherwise the club risks going bust, which is still a very big risk now as it is, even with what cuts we have made.
     
    Supertommymooney likes this.
  3. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    Why bother twisting your melon over this kind of stuff? WFC is a privately owned company, we'll never know the truth with regards to the finances.

    We're shyte on the pitch even though the team seems ace on paper. That's the real conundrum, not some nerdy accountancy nonsense.
     
    Ybotcoombes and wfc4ever like this.
  4. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    The Pozzos have left us absolutely skint. The Barclays loan is merely a cashflow boost. It doesn’t give us “extra” cash as if we were still in premier league. The transfer activity has plugged a one year shortfall more or less.

    New accounts due soon and we will know more about the state we are in then.
     
    scummybear likes this.
  5. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Still got Capoue , Gray and Deeney on big wages we probably cannot afford ?

    Was it true not all players took a wage cut after relegation?
     
  6. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Yes that’s a big problem as well. Dawson back in 12 months as well for another 2 years. 3 more years of Cathcart. Cleverly inexplicably extended for at least another 3 years. The Janmaat fiasco. Etc. Etc, Etc.
     
    wfc4ever and wfcmoog like this.
  7. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Technically they haven’t left us skint, as we didn’t have a pot to piss in when they bought us.
     
  8. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Depends what we get for Sarr, Delefeou, JP and Hughes, but I imagine if we don’t go up and it all washes out we will have bigger debt than under Bassini. After all we have to pay Deeney for another 2? years at astronomical rates as well as Gray. We’ve also got some players with no resale value on longish contracts (Dawson/Cathcart/Cleverly). It’s going to look grim after all that happens if we don’t go up.

    On the plus side maybe Udinese can help us out by giving us our money back on Pussetto rather than just taking him back for nothing.

    Edit Ngakia and Quina will have sale value as well of course, but it’s not hard to see a future where anything of value is sold and we are left with dross on high wages that have no value and “bodies” originally meant for U23s.
     
  9. cyaninternetdog

    cyaninternetdog Forum Hippie

    Arent we going to lose the betting company sponsorship at the end of the deal also? No idea what it is worth but must be at least £2 million a year.
     
  10. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    There was a post on the WFC Finance thread referring to a podcast that said we had re-financed with Barclays using this seasons parachute money as the asset we borrowed against. I didn't review the podcast but I doubt the club gave them more insight than the publicly available information used by everyone else.

    In which case the facts are that as at June 19 we (being Hornets Investment Ltd "HIL" who are the parent company of Watford Football club Ltd) owed £50m in outstanding transfer fees and £70m to 23 Capital a third party loan provider. We owed £4.4m to a Gino Pozzo company.

    23 Capital have security for their loan and that is still in place. The borrowing company should lodge a memorandum of satisfaction if and when they repay a loan and the security is released. Its seems reasonable to suggest therefore that the new Barclays loan is in addition to, not a replacement of the loan from 23 Capital. Of course it may have been reduced as 23 Capital are looking to exit all their loans as they wind their loan book down.

    The accounts to June 20 should be published early next month as EFL clubs have to do so before the calendar year end. We will know a little more then but as already posted, the club is under no obligation to update us on the overall financial position.

    It is also not unreasonable to have a view that player sales were used to reduce the 23 Capital loan and meet the existing obligations on outstanding transfer fees (whatever £ pa that might be). The money could not be used to do both this and meet wages as well, so potentially the Barclays loan was used to meet these, not leave us with spare cash.

    In the thread for the recent AYP event a poster quoted Duxbury " Gino Pozzo is committed to the club for the long term".

    Matters might become clearer shortly or may leave more questions.
     
    RMT79 likes this.
  11. reids

    reids First Team

    Bournemouth sold 80m worth of players plus got Ibe and Fraser off the wage bill. Norwich didn't have to shift anyone as they had basically the same squad as when they got promoted anyway so are financially sound.
     
    RMT79 likes this.
  12. RMT79

    RMT79 First Year Pro

    Very fair point .... I completely forgot they sold Ake to City for £50m ... in my head i only considered the keeper, Wilson and Fraser going.....

    Ok so in summary - I think i'm just brassed off with the team, the club, football and clutching at straws. Considering I have supported the club for 40 years and used to this level way more than the glitz of the Premier league ...im adapting to the Championship about as well as the players are !!!
     
    wfcmoog, Jumbolina and I Blame Pozzo like this.
  13. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Bear in mind that we won't have received all of that money up front, Estupinan yes, I believe that was £15m up front (with the potential to go higher I believe, but I'm not sure), I think I read we received £10m for Doucoure straight up, with £12-15odd million to come in add-ons and future instalments. Gawd knows what that Suarez deal looks like, wasn't it £3m up front with the possibility of going to £10-15m?
     
  14. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Sounds mental, but sometimes I do think we'd have been better off selling Sarr, he's done OK this season in a front line of square pegs in round holes...except because we're skint, we couldn't sign a left-back which would have allowed us to play him and JP in more natural positions. Such a massive shame, because if we had even slightly less rickety foundations, he'd be ******* the Prem for us right now
     
    Supertommymooney likes this.
  15. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    We are paying a chunk of wages for Murray who can’t get a game even when we have no strikers. We could have loaned a left back if the management had a brain. That said Ivic is being stubborn but our recruitment has alienated yet another manager.
     
  16. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Tbf, Murray wasn't the worst decision we've made on paper, I think we're paying £7,500 a week for a player who *could* have got goals at this level, and who I'm pretty sure we brought in on the assumption that Deeney was leaving. It's deals like Deeney being on, what, £100k a week(?) which has left us in this mess
     
  17. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    If we can pay 7.5k for Murray we can pay 7.5k for a left back.
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  18. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Did he come before or after Masina got injured?
     
  19. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Before I think but we had time to get a left back in even on loan.
     
  20. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Scunthorpe was 29th august, Murray 1st September. Bit of overlap in diagnosing injury so very close. Fact remains the manager seems furious we have no left back so much he is willing to compromise the entire season to make a point. It’s crazy they didn’t prioritise as soon as they knew Estupinan was gone. Even some pap from Udinese just to take the excuse away from Ivic. I never fail to be amazed by how incompetent our club is.

    As I say through we are where we are and Ivic not considering Kiko for left back is idiotic. We are a complete and utter shambles all over.
     
    Since63 and Chumlax like this.
  21. reids

    reids First Team

    This calls for one Zeegelaar to make his mighty return.
     
    Hogg-DEENEY!!! and Jumbolina like this.
  22. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    You have to split accountability 50/50, it’s the clubs fault for not bringing a left back in, but they didn’t and short of a time machine Ivic has to deal with it. What would he have done if we’d bought him a left back and they got injured? Still persist with 5 at the back against limited opposition?
     
    Jumbolina likes this.
  23. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Squad Player

    Obviously yes!
     
  24. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Do they have to be published by then or just provided to the EFL?
     
  25. We hate 48

    We hate 48 Reservist

    Moot point-not sure but going by the previous filings by the club for the 3 years since owned by the Pozzos when we were in the EFL they were published in December twice and late November once.

    However given the club is owned by Hornets Investment Ltd who on lend external debt they have, to the club (which is secured by the clubs assets) the full picture can only be gleaned when their accounts are published. Only twice have they filed accounts in November and December-the last time -for season 14/15 it was March 16 as in PL then.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  26. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

    I might be wrong but think the only source of the £7.5k/week thing is short term forum member LouOrns. File in same bracket as the millions per year of loan fees for Obbi Oulare...
     
    Jack5 and Jumbolina like this.
  27. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Oh right. Didn’t realise Mitty was the source. Murray isn’t going to be free so there could be loan fee and higher percentage in that case!
     
  28. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    He's absolutely not worth 25m to us in this state, however, as rightly pointed out to me when I mentioned we should have sold him, there's no guarantee, or even likelihood that much of that money would have been used to strengthen the team.
     
  29. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Balance sheets innit
     
  30. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Agreed. I have also heard that things will either become clearer, less clear, or possibly stay the same.
     
  31. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    I heard Murray was paying us for the privilege, in mints.
     
  32. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    Unfortunately Deeney ate them all before the rest of the lads got a chance to have them
     
  33. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    A captain's privilege.
     
  34. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    More cash flow than balance sheet innit. Making sure you have the funds to pay liabilities as they fall due and avoid going under. They will need funds from Sarr sale to clear debts longer term but have gambled they will get more cash in Jan or next summer than they were offered last window. A brave decision based on how hard they are working to devalue him so far this season.
     
  35. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Well it's not in minutes...
     
    folkestone orn likes this.

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