Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Hornet77, Sep 11, 2020.
Away from home of course.
Update - I'd posted the Points Progress chart twice and missed out the Goals
None of this remotely matters as according to the experts on here we are stuffed this season. No chance we go up and the season is already done and dusted. Norwich and Bournemouth running away with it already.
As a long time reader of these stats most weeks, its just occured to me that I don't understand the points progress graph, is the average the top of the section line? e.g. are you saying the average at end of seasion for the champions is between 88-94? or are you saying the average is 94 and that runner up is 88? So is end of season average points to be in playoffs 74pts?
For these graphs I have used the average points over the last 20 season not the range. The average points to be champions over the last 20 seasons is 94 points, runners-up is 88 points and 6th place is 74 points.
For the range of points there hase been quite a lot of variation over the last 20 years. For champions it is between 81-106 points, runners-up 79-93 points and for 6th place 68-78 points. That's why I have shown the average.
So its the top of the coloured section is the average? so our 14/15 season we were a couple of points off the average title points, and a couple ahead of runner up average? (and thanks, they're really interesting and illuminating as a counter balance to the frothing in the moment that can happen)
That's correct, the averages are only a guide. You can see that every season is different but it does give a rough idea as to how we are performing.
my next fascinating observation is that I think we've now had 12 different scorers already, and none of them are my player of the season so far, the King.
After 14 games we now have the same record as 14/15, without scoring nor conceding as many goals. Although in 14/15 we lost four consequtive matches in games 16-19.
Of course the requirement for being champions to to get one more point (or the same with a superior GD) than the second placed team, so the years with 100+ points actually skew the graph.
In the Championship it's long been the thought that 50 will see you safe and 75 would see you in the playoffs, with the occasional year where that isn't quite enough.
I've now added in to the first page the scores to go along with the results.
One thing that stands out for me is how few draws we had in both 12/13 and 14/15. We have already drawn almost as much this season with only a third of the year gone.
My basic interpretation of that (other interpretations are available) is that you don't need draws to get promoted. As has been said many times on here, you would rather have a win and a loss than two draws.
We seriously have to back ourselves to be better than the opposition as, despite our limitations, more often than not we will be right. The lack of ambition away from home is not sustainable.
It’s a bizarre season for stats.
In our eight away matches so far, neither us but nor (more surprisingly) our opponents have scored more than once.
All our clean sheets this season have come when we’ve either failed to score or only scored once.
So therefore every time we’ve scored twice (always at home), we’ve failed to keep a clean sheet.
And when we have scored two goals this season, we have always gone on to score again.
The number of times we have failed to score compared to the stats for the whole of the previous seasons is very telling.
We need to score more, feels like last season.
I hadn't previously connected that Vydra was our highest scorer in 12/13. Did he get less game time in 14/15 when Ighalo joined the team?
Interesting stat. Seems we’ve spent longer ahead in matches than anybody else.
Very interesting looking at Norwich, who we know have been winning games in the final few minutes.
So Troy is our top player for expected goals and creating chances for other players, I thought he was supposed to be all that was wrong with Watford and contributed nothing?
While not being a fan of these rather spurious stats, expected goals I can just about understand: you’re in front of the net between the posts so you’re expected to score a goal. But what on earth is an expected assist?
Presumably making the pass that led to an expected goal situation?
Perhaps, but to me an expected assist is one that you might or might not make. How can you tell if the pass is not actually made? I suspect this is a nonsense.
I suspect Deeneys xG stats are massively helped by firstly not playing many minutes but also taking a penalty (0.76 xG) and getting a tap-in so close to goal against Rotherham (0.91 xG). No way he continues to get anywhere near 0.5 xG per game.
No, the pass is actually made to create the xG situation. ie. the pass is real, whether or not the goal actually happens.
For me expected assists is a better metric than assists, as it rewards the creator regardless of whether or not the chance was converted. xG on the other hand is useful to determine how often players get into goalscoring positions, but it says nothing about how they do when in those positions. A comparison of goals vs xG is a decent way to see how someone performs infront of goal.
I see. So expected assist is a bit of a misnomer, or at least not directly comparable or equivalent to xG.
I've played around with this to see who our best and worst finishers are:
For those that prefer a more visual representation:
Black line is xG. Bar indicates number of goals. Darker the colour, more minutes played.
I think Vydra was a bit of a special case. Quite a few of the goals he scored (in the Championship, of course) were so well taken they count amongst the best goals I've seen. This is not really quantifiable, of course. If used properly he was surely of Premier League standard. Goal scorers are gold dust. Nevertheless we let him go. And he's not really ever set anybody alight since, has he?
But, and again this is completely unquantifiable and indeed unprovable, I felt at the time there was something wrong going on in the background. I was not not alone in feeling this:
His body-language was not right; from (the usual) ecstatic goal celebrations he became more muted as the season went on. I remember him seemingly shrugging Troy off during one celebration. I know this is pretty feeble evidence, but body-language can tell you a lot if you watch closely. It's generally unconscious stuff. He was not happy at Watford. A bit of a country boy from Czechia, isn't he? Maybe he just couldn't fit in.
Anyway, he left. Pity.
One thing people seem to forget about Vydra is that, even in his two good seasons with us, he went on long spells of not scoring. In 2012/13 he made 13 appearances without a goal from the end of February until the two in the play-off semi against Leicester. Then in 2014/15 he had a spell of just one goal in 17 appearances across the middle of the season and that came in the demolition of Blackpool. Happily that dip in form coincided with the emergence of Ighalo as a goal machine.
Despite the lack of exciting football we are in pretty good shape compared to previous seasons.
An update before tonight's game.