Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Sting, Aug 12, 2019.
This will all be forgotten after we tonk the Toffees on Saturday
You are usually good at debating, but when you start using the terms I've highlighted, the conversation will only go one way. So it's pointless continuing this further with you. I think others understand the points I'm making, even if you don't agree.
Amen to that brother !
"You've got me there, but I won't admit it because I'm worried that people will, ahem, take me less seriously on here.
Instead, I will make some excuse about the language you use, despite the fact I use much worse in other posts.
Now excuse me, I have to get on my metaphorical plane back to metaphorical Spain."
Saturday was pathetic but it's a bit too soon to be making judgments. You can dress our form up any way you want to make whatever point you like by being selective with the number of matches, excluding a good run as that doesn't count or including a bad run instead.
If you look at the last half season including last Saturday and back to Bournemouth away, so our last 19 league games, we have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 9. This gives us 20 points or 40 points for a full season = safety. Included in this is one point from the four games before the cup final you could easily exclude this as you could the four wins at the start of the season? We had players sent off against Arsenal and West Ham and you could argue that those results could have been very different. You could discount the results after the semi-final as we were safe from relegation and the players focused only on the cup, in which case the 12 games before the semi-final returned 16 points, 1.33/game or 50 points over a season.
You can make a case for including or excluding what you like to prove any point. There are lies, damn lies and statistics!
The new season is where form should start and not the end of the previous one. Out of those last few games, we had a player sent off in two of them meaning we had to work harder. West Ham we were atrocious but were one week from a cup final and I’m not going to blame anybody for not wanting to risk injury. I still don’t understand why we played a full strength team. We then have a 12 week break where we we get 3 different teams added to the league and most, if not all teams change their squads so it’s almost impossible to predict how these new teams and squads will get on. You can’t base form on a previous season when you’ve played teams that are no longer in the league and are playing against players that you’ve not played against before. Our current form can really only be based on one game which makes us sh1t.
The minute you start "tampering" with a series of numbers I'd agree. You can't remove games where we had a player sent off or were unlucky as that happens.
Untampered with, the results from the last x league games are a matter of fact and it's just a question of how far back you start that sequence.
Whether it's one, 15, 36 (to exclude that one off run of 4 wins), or 39 (to include it) is up to you.
Agree with that - but however you look at it since returning to the Prem we have been a club that does a bit better than the 40 points needed to survive plus had one 50 pointer. How we do this season will not depend on the past but if anyone is expecting us to suddenly become a 60 point club they are my kind of optimist.
With luck we will continue as a 40 point plus side. Hopefully the tough start to the season does not demoralise us and the new players soon come on board to galvanise us
Exactly, last season is history the only thing that matters is played one, lost one = 0 points. It was a poor performance on Saturday so we all feel crap. The team and my mood are only as good as the last result, which is bad. But, this will soon change if we get a result on Saturday or against West Ham.
We disagree as I don't think the tail end of last season is irrelevant. I think it affects the players morale and confidence in the coach. But this is a forum for opinions and it would be very boring if we all agreed on everything.
IMO there has been a general dropping of performance levels, that started last season and has apparently continued over to this one.
There are many pointers to this. Results are the best indicator, but not the only one. You can win, and win well but play badly. The opposite can also be true. You have to use your own perception and also you can back it up with stats, not just the result.
I'd say we started showing signs of things not going too well even in that Fulham match, which we won 4-1. The first half we were poor, and they created a lot of very good chances against us.
Arsenal was the next game, and of course another mistake cost us a goal, and Deeney's red card cost us the match. Although that adversity I think made us more focused and we played better as a result. We should have still got something out of that game.
We won at Huddersfield, our last Premier League win on 20th April. It was another very unconvincing performance though against a relegated side.
Southampton at home, and we were awful. Gray scored an undeserved late equaliser. Wolves at home, and yet again it was basic errors which gifted Wolves both their goals.
We actually played really well in the first half at Chelsea. We controlled the match and were much the better side at half time. Then inexplicably, they totally overrun us in the second half. They scored 3 but could easily had another 5....and that's no exaggeration. To go from one extreme to another, really is very puzzling.
Of course then the dreadful performances followed on from that. The debacle against West Ham, Man City and now Brighton, where performance levels have hit a new low.
So in my mind, we were on the decline for quite a while, then have gone into self destruct mode since the second half at Chelsea.
In the last three and a half matches, we've conceded 16 goals!!! Scored 1.
Yes I think you're right.
Now that really is narrowing down the period half of a match! The last 13 minutes of the game on Saturday we conceded no goals and scored no goals so over a season that's 38 points?
I want to know what Gracia said to his players at half time in that Chelsea match. It wasn't very effective, but it has been very long lasting.
I agree, I disagree as well.
Maybe it has more to do with what Sarri said to his players at half-time?
It is not always about Watford there are two teams in match.
We were complacent on Saturday and Brighton with a new manger and style were an unknown.
West Ham, we were in the game right up to the dubious (and overturned) red card.
Chelsea were fighting for a top four finish and we matched them for a half.
Wolves were out of the cup wanted revenge and 7th place so were really fired up.
Southampton were fighting for their lives to avoid the drop.
Huddersfield were already relegated and playing for pride.
Arsenal ditto West Ham
All after we were safe and focused on the cup final. I can understand why you are worried that there is a trend but the end of season form is not always a good measure. In 17/18 we took 4 points from the last 6 matches, but 18/19 wasn't bad. In 16/17 we lost our last 6 games!!
Sounds like a whole load of excuses to me. So, because of all these reasons you've given for the opposition, we're not able to impose ourselves at all?
We may as well not bother playing any more games in future if that's the case as the opposition will always have their own particular needs, which seem to supersede ours.
Are you in two minds over it then?
So what happened last year?
Usual collapse end of 2017-18, 2018-19 4 wins on the spin...
Silly comment that's twisting a reasoned argument. They are not excuses but, are a suggestion of context which is always important in a balanced look at statistics. A match is always a battle of two teams and in some of these games our opponents have prevailed given the context given.
Experience says let's look at trends after a few games of the current season. You may be right, only time will tell....
I think it’s a lot of possibles but it could be other things as well that are the fault of ourselves. For me too many things change over the summer to include last seasons form
Our defensive ability hasn't.
It's not twisting anything. I accept of course there are two teams involved in any match, but your assumption seems to imply the opposition's needs and desires outweigh ours?
We have to get our own house in order. We cannot worry about things we cannot effect, like the desires of the opposition. That can motivate/demotivate them, but that's their business.
If we play a good system with fully motivated players, busting a gut to chase lost causes and trying to stay in the correct tactical positions, but still lose, then fair play. The other team were better on the day. But if we regularly play within ourselves, making basic errors while under no pressure, not bothering to make runs or pickup the runs of the opponent, being basically sloppy and lazy, then you deserve to lose. The latter is what I see Watford players doing right now and it needs to stop. It is a continuation from last season. All those elements that were apparent in the second half at Chelsea and in the West Ham, Man City matches were still visible in the Brighton match.
The team is just not playing to a high enough standard. I'm not talking about their footballing qualities, but I'm a talking about the mental side. Can you be bothered to chase that lost cause (like Kiko did against Brighton?) Right now, that sort of thing seems to be a one off, but it's the type of commitment you have to play with in order to get a good result. They are capable of it for sure, but they are nowhere close to those levels currently, and haven't been for a while now.
Last season: "Deeney's red card v Arsenal cost us, the rest of the team was too drained to see the season out after playing with 10 men."
This season: "same problems as last season." So I suppose Deeney's red card is still costing us.
The narrative shifts depending on the prevailing wind.
I am agreeing with you who disagrees.
We turned it round. Gracia had his first full summer with the squad, new levels of fitness, we won that important first game of the season, we got to play Burnley when they were sh*gged out having played in europe 2.5 days earlier, got the breaks against CP in an even game and suddenly a 3 games winning run, confidence is sky high and the bad run is forgotten.
No-one is saying that a bad end to last season means it will be bad forever, just that the defeat to BHA this year comes after a bad sequence of results which is more likely to hit confidence of players (and us !) than if we'd ended last season really well and the squad had returned for this season buzzing with confidence.
Those 12 points equate to the 4 game run at the start of last season. I'm a little dissapointed about not carrying on that form and winning the league with 114 points, but we concentrated on the cup so I can understand.
However this season I'm worried. I've done the maths, not going to lie I think we are in trouble..
We've lost the last two scoring none and conceding 9! Thats a goal every 20 minutes. Doesn't bode well and fits in with my calculations. Ignore this at your peril and I'm sure Gino is aware.
I dont agree with your ballocks.
I'm ignoring you because you've sunk to poor language. What would your wife say?
If only the other teams didnt have anything to play for at any point and werent better than us for a variety of reasons then we would win them all!
That is exactly the point! There are two teams and its the one with most desire, ability, hard work and luck that generally wins and in 14 matches last season that was Watford. This post was primarily in reply to HB1 saying that it must be something Gracia said at half-time in the Chelsea game had an effect in us losing since then. I was simply summarizing the games after the semi-final and making the point that there are two teams in every game and in some, of these the opposition had more to play for the us given the looming cup final.
We were unlucky with decisions against Arsenal & West Ham and I believe we would have got something out of both matches, but that's football. Against Chelsea, their quality prevailed in the second half against our hard-work. Against Huddersfield we won because of our quality and maybe some luck. Against Southampton we didn't work hard enough and were lucky to get a point and against Wolves we didn't work hard enough and got what we deserved. On Saturday we didn't have any of the qualities required to win and got what we deserved, but that isn't always the case!