Road To The Autos?

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by hornetboy1, Feb 17, 2021.

  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    The Coventry match seemed to be the moment where senior pro's got together with a realisation everyone had to up their game.

    So, taking Bristol City as the starting point, I think something similar to this run of results is how we could achieve a top two place.

    Already played:-
    Bristol City (h ) W
    Preston (a ) W

    12 wins required from the remaining 16 matches to give us 90 points. I feel we have to win at least 7 of the next 9 games in order to give ourselves a chance, with a daunting final 7 matches ending the season:-
    Derby (h ) W
    Blackburn (a ) W
    Bournemouth (a ) ?
    Wycombe (h ) W
    Forest (h ) W
    Cardiff (a ) ?
    Rotherham (a ) W
    Birmingham (h ) W
    Sheff Wed (h ) W

    .......then it becomes particularly tricky:-
    Middlesbrough (a ) ?
    Reading (h ) ?
    Luton (a ) ?
    Norwich (a ) ?
    Millwall (h ) W
    Brentford (a ) ?
    Swansea (h ) ?

    So I can see 8 solid wins. We need 12 to give us 90 points. The question mark games I see as the most difficult for us. If we could win a couple of those and avoid defeats against most (if not all rivals), then it could see us over the line and make automatic promotion.

    I see Cardiff and Boro as tough games, as they are seriously chasing that 6th place. Luton because it's Luton and the rest are top 6 rivals.

    Personally, I think the task is a little beyond us, as the road map looks too difficult. However, you have to have hope, and if we do go up automatically, then it's going to have to be a run similar to this I feel.
     
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  2. Our 433 (with sensible rotation) gets promoted.

    Start messing around with 442 chuckle brothers again and it doesn’t.

    It’s really that simple.
     
  3. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I agree with this, as obvious as it is.

    Not only are we lacking a real goal scorer, when Troy starts it’s like a double negative. He takes the position a goalscorer should, but he can’t score himself and he also leaves us light in midfield so we get overrun in there.

    You won’t get automatics playing with 10 men every game.

    Gray needs to be restricted to the odd 10 minutes here or there.

    With the above we have a chance, it’s just a shame we didn’t start the season like it as who knows where we’d be.
     
    CarlosKickaballs likes this.
  4. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Bit surprised you've got Blackburn away in the 'solid wins' camp.

    Overall though I agree it's almost beyond us unless Swansea and one of Brentford or Norwich have a real wobble. Not impossible in this league as history shows.

    Swansea don't face anyone from the current top 6 until the middle of next month (Bournemouth in 8 games time), Brentford have only Norwich in that time (3 March) and vice versa, Norwich only have Brentford from the top 6. There's not going to be a lot of direct rivals taking chunks out of each other between now and the back end of March so we just need to keep up the pace until then and hope to close the gap slightly for the run in.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2021
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    It's a tough game, but it's one we will probably have to win. Blackburn lost at home to Preston last week, so I don't consider it beyond us. I certainly feel there are harder games in the run-in.
     
  6. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we have an inform Derby on Friday.

    Our rivals will have to play each other and I expect that they will drop points here and there otherwise, i.e Barnsley beating Brentford last Sunday.
     
    Knight GT likes this.
  7. Our 433 is capable of beating any team in this league comprehensively. Whether autos or play offs the only people who can stop us is ourselves. There will be something poetic in going back to Wembley where the rot started and putting it right.
     
  8. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    One game at a time. We won’t win all the ones selected as wins and the other teams won’t win every game against a team outside the top 6 either. It’s a tough league.
     
  9. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    fuqin LOL at the negativity. The only thing that can ruin us now is injuries, or the teat in charge playing the two numbskulls up top.
     
  10. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Reservist

    I know it's not what anyone wants to hear.

    But we are far too good for this league and the rest are now playing for second place. Good luck to them all.
     
    CarlosKickaballs likes this.
  11. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    Yep. PNE realised it, that's why they lined up as if they were playing man city. The only people who do not realise it are our own pathetic fans.
     
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  12. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Corrected for you.
     
    SkylaRose likes this.
  13. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player



    That's what I wanted to say originally when I saw the OP all the surrounding teams have to ability to drop points, have off-days or injury crises. I really hope Forest can do a number on the Swans tonight.
     
  14. RS2

    RS2 First Year Pro

    It's pretty much between us and Brentford for champions. One injury to Toney and we've got a clear run.
     
  15. Carpster

    Carpster Reservist

    I said before the PNE game nothing but 17 wins will do. 1 down 16 to go. :D
     
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  16. IRB

    IRB THe artist formally know as ImRonBurgundy?

    Need Brentford/Swans to start tripping up in their next few matches. We have some difficult fixtures coming up with Blackburn, Bournemouth and Cardiff all away from home

    Our last two games being Brentford away and Swansea at home is interesting, if we can stay in touch I fancy us to get the results we need from those games
     
  17. Harrybassetthater

    Harrybassetthater Academy Graduate

    I hope you are right. I backed Blackburn that night and thought Mowbray picked the wrong starting line up especially leaving Harvey Elliot on the bench. Also Preston had the impressive Ryan Ledson playing in midfield who did not line up against us but as you say we all need some hope. Have backed Swansea tonight so they will probably not win the way my luck is at the moment.
     
  18. Carpster

    Carpster Reservist

    On a broader note
    Swansea has got 0-0 written all over it.
     
  19. Watfordftw

    Watfordftw Reservist

    It's a real shame we blew so many winnable games early on. Can't lie though, with the games coming thick and fast, it's extremely exciting. Not sure if it's renewed optimism but I'm definitely getting a similar sense of feeling from the last promotion season.
     
  20. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    Said this to my friend yesterday - feels like the flick has switched the same way it did that season.

    This team when lined up properly is devastatingly good in this league, bar a really potent striker. If we had Suarez and Estupian as planned we'd genuinely probably be about 10 points clear. But I still think we have slightly too much to do for automatics - I back us to win 90% of home games but still going to need to find a way to get results away like Brentford and Norwich do. Our away games this season have mostly been against the worse teams in the league, i'd be interested to see how we do at the likes of Bournemouth and Blackburn who certainly won't sit back and be happy with 0-0.

    Either way - i've enjoyed this season far more than most of the past five and if it wasn't for the financial devastation of sticking around, I wouldn't mind another season here.
     
    Watfordftw likes this.
  21. No point in trying to calculate result by result. We could win any or lose any and our form will fluctuate. We may predict we'll basically beat those at the bottom and draw or lose to those nearer the top but who'd have thunk we'd lose at home to QPR.
    12 wins from 16 sounds about right but shows the enormity of the task. 2 of those wins are just to catch up ground so assumes that the best 2 of the other 3 will effectively win 10/16 which isn't unrealstic.
    But looking game by game doesn't help...
     
  22. Diamond

    Diamond Squad Player

    Two wins and HMS PissTheLeague appears to be back on track. Do you lot never learn?
     
    wfcwarehouse likes this.
  23. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Reading, Norwich, Brentford and Swansea in four of our last six games

    Maybe even some sort of crowd for the Swansea game?
     
  24. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    Each to their own I guess but I've hated the season as it's basically been devoid of entertainment
     
  25. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    I think Covid/No fans has played a massive part of that. But every match being competitive makes up for the 17/20 away games where be barely have a sniff in the PL.
     
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  26. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    That may be the case, but if we beat them all automatic promotion is not out of the question, as long as we don't slip up in the games we should win.
     
    Cassetti's Beard likes this.
  27. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I’ve not enjoyed most of it, I’ve found it incredibly frustrating. At times I’ve felt like I must be going mad seeing us set up completely wrong week in week out, with it being so glaringly obvious but nothing ever changing. Seeing Troy and/or Andre starting regularly, with the misguided expectation that all of a sudden they’ll start scoring goals and our midfield won’t suddenly be overrun has been maddening.

    My expectations in the PL were completely different, and the odd decent performance was far more enjoyable for me overall than what I’ve seen for 90% of this season.

    Of course compare that to our promotion season and neither compare, three strikers with 20+ goals each.
     
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  28. ITK platypus

    ITK platypus Reservist

    The last fixtures are essentially playoffs. And if we lose those playoffs we go into the REAL playoffs. So plenty of chances for us to scrape back into Greatest League on Earth.
     
  29. Simmos

    Simmos First Year Pro

    I prefer us to be playing teams towards the top of the league as it means they don't set up like Preston did last night. If teams try to play more of an open attacking style I believe we have just that little extra quality to beat them. Dangerous to tempt fate but I think we will be promoted automatically.
     
  30. I see the next 6 games as the gateway play-offs. Do well in those play-offs and then we have a crack at those difficult closing play-offs. Come through those games unscathed, and we are into the REAL Play-offs.
     
    W4BS and ITK platypus like this.
  31. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Roads?

    Where we're going, we don't need roads.
     
    Knight GT and Otter like this.
  32. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    We're more likely to get points against the top teams, who'll play a more open game, than against the "easy" teams who'll park the bus which we can't deal with.

    And a win against top teams denies them points, which is better for us than the same result against Rotherham or Wycombe.
     
    Markoa$ likes this.
  33. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    Can we change this thread to the road to the playoffs
     
  34. Lloyd

    Lloyd Reservist

    Can we change this thread to the road to the Auto Windscreens Shield - it doesn't pay to be over confident
     
  35. Can we change this thread to (Michael) rowed the boat ashore, halelujah
     
    Lloyd likes this.

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