Relegation

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Markoa$, Aug 2, 2019.

  1. nisman94

    nisman94 International Man of Mystery

    Sorry for the lengthy write-up
     
    vic-rijrode likes this.
  2. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    TL:DR Mbappe is next.
     
  3. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Nobody is suggesting Pozzo has any money? The point being made is that he is comparatively ly potless. When you say “even Villas have 10 times our money” you do realise they have nearly as much cash as Abramovich????
     
  4. nisman94

    nisman94 International Man of Mystery

    You've completely missed my point. I'm saying that he is comparatively pot-less, so why are people asking for him to spend money in order for us to compete with others, when those others don't have as much financial restrictions and will be able to spend more money to reach the same goal that we have? My point (which I think you've missed) is that we don't have as much money as others because a) those owners have much more money to start off with and b) those things that I listed in that post won't impact them that much. They have more free money to spend on players. We're asking for him to jump across a fifty-foot canyon when he can jump 5 feet. It's not that we don't have money, we don't have enough to do everything that people are asking him to do.

    Also I knew that Villa have nearly as much cash as Abramovich, that's why I said "9 times our money" instead of 10, as I looked up the figures.
     
  5. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Villa owners have 10 billion. Pozzo has, what, 100ish million? That ain't "9 times our money". We are dwarfed by Villa.

    I haven't been asking Pozzo to spend a load of money. I'd expect him to re-invest Lukebakio money and make more of an effort to trim our budget by ditching garbage like Prodl, Okaka, Success, Zeegelaar to allow that reinvestment. Not feeling the need to give such poor players 4 or 5 year deals would be a start.

    My main point is that Pozzo is out of his depth financially so we'll inevitably go down sooner or later. It's just a fact and not necessarily a bad thing. We are well run but that isn't enough anymore in this league. When we do go down we should be on sound footing providing we can get rid of the deadbeats mentioned above or their contracts expire. Not sure Pozzo will hang around when we go down though.
     
    Vanhorn17 and Burnsy like this.
  6. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Gino has spent money in the past and has recouped near £70m for Richarlison and Lukebakio in the past two summers. Suggesting he reinvests some of that money to give us a stronger squad isn’t beyond the pale. We aren’t rich and able to splash cash at will - but I don’t think anyone is suggesting we do?! But I’m not quite sure it’s true that we can’t spend much at all.

    I’ve said it a couple of times this week - but the exact words from Duxbury is that Gino ‘comes alive during the transfer window’.

    All some fans are asking for is that the actions of the club in the transfer market tally up a bit better with the words coming out of the club.
     
    wfcwarehouse likes this.
  7. nisman94

    nisman94 International Man of Mystery

    My bad, I somehow misread the decimal point.

    I still think you're missing my point. It's not as easy to say "re-invest Lukebakio money etc", when there are a lot of outgoings that are more important and need more attention, like the infrastructure of the club. The length of the deals for some of those players does irk me (I'm not some happy clapper before you put me in that category), but I suppose the length of the deal does allow for them to have a higher resale value vs them having a shorter contract. Of course, that all hinges on someone buying them in the first place and when they're old, they're less likely to be bought and more likely to be released.

    As for your last point, that is what I was ultimately hinting at. We do need richer owners. A Palace-type situation would help (and alluding to an earlier post by someone else is exactly what Gino tried to do)- as long as Gino has the majority then we can trust him to run the club in the right way, just with more money. The alternative is getting owners in that think in the same way as Gino does, just richer.

    It's at times like these where I start to really grow sick of football, especially when I'm surrounded by Geordies who like to paint things in a negative way without realising they've spunked a lot of money these past two windows and that they're luckier than than they realise.
     
  8. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Long and short of it to compete in the medium to long term we need an investor.
    It would make sense for someone to come onboard with Gino as he knows what he is doing football wise.

    To an outsider we are an established Premier league Club in North London. One of very few without a billionaire owner and with the scope to build a large penis extension/vanity project stadium.

    So the question is who are we going to whore ourselves out to?
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2019
  9. That's how I see it. To progress we need investment as we don't have the cash to compete with everyone else, apart from to at least just stay still treading water as a mid to lower prem team.

    But anyone coming in with large investment will surely want a controlling share if not complete control.

    It would worry me becoming a rich persons plaything who may eventually get bored and bugger off leaving us worse off than we are now.

    Do we want ambition and progression at the expense of long term security which is what I feel we are getting right now.
     
  10. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Whilst it’s a noble idea and one the club would likely welcome, there’s not exactly a queue of people lining up the buy PL football clubs at the moment - even less so people who would be willing to plough money into a club that doesn’t make much money as it is, without having a controlling interest. I just don’t think the pro’s outweigh the con’s in that situation for a potential investor.

    I think it’s partly why the club are so keen to promote themselves internationally. Bigger revenue stream makes us more appealing.
     
  11. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    No billionaire would buy us because we're not even as glamorous as ******* bournemouth.
     
  12. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Even our beach in the High St is **** !
     
  13. LaClusazSki

    LaClusazSki Reservist

    Put some money on us being relegated.
     
  14. LaClusazSki

    LaClusazSki Reservist

    I hope we stay up and then take a good look at our squad for the season 20/21. Massive investment will be needed.
    Too late for this season. Others sides have invested in new players. Yes, always a risk. We have have done nothing. No new players,, existing old players still on the books. Survival is the very best we can ask for.
    Maybe it is the Pozzo's plan to accept relegation, lower the players contract money and rake in the parachute payments for profit .
    There are no friends when it comes to money.
     
  15. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Squad Player

    They just need to go on Dragons Den to get investment. ;)
     
  16. Chumlax

    Chumlax Squad Player

    The fundamentals of it are that, we can argue about how much money Gino is capable of investing or spending and the degree to which sales can be reinvested on new players, but if we are literally saying that our expectation has to be that we in fact can't reinvest the Richarlison money or the Lukebakio money thanks to other club outlays that swallow it up, then we are literally nothing more than a selling club, and apparently not just a selling club but effectively one that needs to consistently sell its most promising players just to keep the lights on at the training ground.

    This is our fifth consecutive season in the Prem, at the richest time in its history. We can't possibly be saying that that is the case, can we? It sure as hell isn't a sustainable policy in any medium to long term sense.

    This is where the issue of whether our ownership has enough money to survive in this league comes in. We always knew that the Udinese model would not be directly replicable in the Prem, because it's a far more competitive division top-to-bottom that's far harder to stay in. Duxbury himself has gone on record discussing his awareness of that difference. Yet our actions this summer have suggested the opposite; we are still deficient in several key areas, as we were last season. It seems a little like one sacrificial lamb of rather middling quality was offered up in one position in the form of Dawson and that was supposed to appease everyone. But it shouldn't be about appeasement. We were very lucky with injuries last season, after several seasons of suffering through the opposite. If we lose one starting attacking mid long term, we're fielding utter dross, and that's when our starters aren't providing the dross themselves. We've still got a collection of strikers who aren't good enough on their own, none of which allow us any flexibility to change formation or play some of our other players in their best positions.

    I'm not saying 'how dare they not fix and upgrade every position?!' That is, of course, not realistic. What I am saying is that in light of the amount of glaring issues we do have across the squad, it could be seen to be at best a tad hubristic to have taken such a seemingly lethargic approach and done quite so little business.
     
    Burnsy and Jumbolina like this.
  17. Hogg-DEENEY!!!

    Hogg-DEENEY!!! Squad Player

    It is annoying that we've got to this stage only having signed some pretty low-key players, but that's the way for us, especially when we spunked a fair bit of money on **** in our first few Premier League years. Regardless, I don't think we're at panic stations whatsover given we stayed up with ease last season. Ultimately, the biggest area of concern last season (CB) has been dealt with (I know we could have done more there and we may yet, and Dawson isn't exactly a worldie, but he should contribute a few points compared to Mapps), we haven't lost anyone (unlike many other teams), and we still have time to get Sarr plus potentially another name or two in before the deadline (and hopefully get rid of some of the deadwood around the squad).
    João Pedro in January can hopefully make an impact (though hopefully not in a Deulofeu way with us fearing relegation!)

    There are some players in there who are getting on in age, but on the flipside, there are some younger, fresher players who can adequately replace them when required (though Javi could definitely do a better job of managing the squad as the season wears on). Obviously the one factor we can't legislate for is injuries and suspensions, last season was certainly a lot better in that regard than the previous two, but we still had key players out for key games on numerous occasions. Cup run and a lack of rotation (admittedly with us still having something to play for in the League) hindered us at the end of the season, and as much as I'd love to go far in the cups again, we could equally crash out early which would at least help the league campaign

    Looking briefly at the other teams, I'd say the likes of Everton and Leicester look slightly stronger (though both have lost key players from last season), Wolves much the same though with Europe to deal with, and West Ham, well, they could always go on a mad one, or end up in a relegation scrap. We've almost certainly missed the boat wrt Europe, but none of those teams strike fear, wouldn't be too surprised if we finished ahead of one of them (in particular Wolves if they don't add to their squad and stick around in Europe). Looking down at last season's table, I think Southampton and Brighton have improved, but Palace, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Burnley have either gone pretty much sideways, or even backwards. Think the promoted sides will make a decent fist of it (certainly a lot better than last year's relegated sides), but I don't see any of them doing any better than surviving by the skin of their teeth really.

    Think we'll finish around 13th. Couple of injuries here and there and we could be looking over our shoulders, though with a bit of luck (and some shrewd dealings this week) I wouldn't be surprised if we snuck into the top half
     
  18. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Good post. I would also argue that if we have 5 consecutive years of premier league money and we have to sell a player for 20-40 million every year just to break even then we are poorly run. It shows we have historically made too many poor purchases that are depreciating in the accounts year on year and have non contributing players on long term contracts that we can’t sell. With our relatively small budget it is a disaster that we pay Prodl/Okaka/Zeegelaar 5 million a year and cannot get them off the books.
     
    Chumlax likes this.
  19. wfcwarehouse

    wfcwarehouse First Team Captain

    Bournemouth, Sheff Utd and Newcastle for me.
     
  20. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    There is no doubt, if nothing happens in the next couple of days, it is an extremely disappointing transfer window. Our final position last season doesn't help in attracting new players and we needed a striker who could create chances, and put them away. I also agree with some posters above reflecting on how we are run financially, and maintaining the squad we have. Without further information, some of our decisions seem strange to say the least.

    But, on the bright side, if we keep our current squad, I don't think we'll struggle to stay up this season.

    Last seasons, unlike previous seasons where we performed relatively poorly and got away with it- I'd say slightly lucky, we were well worth our points total last year - I think unlucky not to get more points. I still felt that we didn't get the best out of our players on enough occasions, and obviously, post semi-final, we were woeful. There is more point potential in our current squad than we demonstrated.

    I think we have several young players that will come though this season, and we have the experience and stability of another relatively successful season behind us.

    So, in summary, we'll be fine. Top half at least. :D
     
  21. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I actually understand what you're trying to say, but it's a bit of a contradiction. If you're making poor purchases, then where would the £20-40 million players come from?

    It's more a bit of a mixture of quality. We've signed players who appreciate in value, but we have a few that do not, but they didn't cost a fortune to sign in the first place. Even in those three you mentioned, Prodl was PotS a couple of years ago. Seems like that gets forgotten easily.
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  22. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    I agree we make very good signings as well. But my point is we definitely have deadwood we cannot shift (on Prodl we have him a new 4 year contract at the age of 30 - bad business for me - and we’ve just done the same with Cathcart.

    Peñaranda, Okaka, Success cost us £30 million and we get little out of them. Peneranda might come good and make all of that back but he’s done nothing for 3 seasons. Navarro + Sema + Masina was £10 million. We burn a lot of cash on duds.

    The sales would offset this if we sold all the assets now, but if we need to sell a 20m player each year going forward (and not sure that would even get us breaking even) then we’ve got a lot of money going out the door on duds (wages + transfers) and they get stuck on the books for 5 years.
     
  23. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    To be fair if you fall for the PR that comes out of the club then you're just asking to be dissapponted.
     
  24. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Sugar! 6!
     
  25. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Yes, I agree they have done some bonkers deals along the way. The 4 year extension of Prodl was baffling. It was clear he was on his way down in terms of form, but maybe they thought Gracia could turn him around, like he did for Capoue, Deeney, Holebas and Janmaat. Clear improvements from these players since Gracia became the manager. But 4 years was extreme.

    Of course, with Watford's approach they look to gamble on players. They look for players who have lost their way a little or players with potential who could significantly improve. It's not a precise science though, it's a calculated risk and if you do things like that, you will collect "dead wood"...it's inevitable.

    I'm sure if they knew how little they'd get from Okaka, Zeegelaar & Navarro they wouldn't have made the signings. I've not completely written off Penaranda or Success yet, but this season is their final one as far as I'm concerned. They have to step up or they are no good for us, however, I understand why the club signed these two. Plenty of potential in their younger years, but it's not quite worked out for them, yet. Sinclair is another who has been forgotten about. I think we were blinded by the Liverpool link there. I didn't rate him before we signed him, but £4m is not a fortune to an EPL club, so worth a punt. Another who didn't work out though.

    Sema I think was just a bargain bucket. We only singed him because he was extremely cheap. He does have an engine on him, but offers very little in an attacking sense. He's an obvious player and at Premier League level, very easy to nullify. Although Gracia seems to like him.

    I think the rest of the squad is strong enough though and of course we need strengthening up front and in defence, but the dead wood is not vast. I'd say we need to move on 5 or 6 players. Okaka, Zeegelaar, Sema, Sinclair, Navarro & Prodl.
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  26. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Yes. But there’s a new Grill restaurant at the ground that we’ve all been crying out for. These types of improvements are vital. Gino can’t afford to do it all and vital infrastructure like this is so important.
     
  27. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    I'm interested to know why you haven't "completely written off" Success. Mrs Willis has always been exasperated by him, but this time last year I was still hoping he would come good. I thought he was decent in the Cup games against Reading and Spurs, but every time he gets a chance in the league (usually as a sub) he flops. I've given up on him now. It's such a shame that a guy with his physique and speed just doesn't seem to have the application to take the opportunities that are there for him.
     
  28. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    With him, I think a lot of the problem lies between his ears (maybe his legs in the past). He needs to get his head right. He has the attributes to be a decent squad player. He's still only 23, so is still a young guy, but he needs to sort himself out this season. He's had a couple of write-off seasons but this is his last chance I feel. He needs to take it or we will probably move him on in the summer.
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  29. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    He should have made a breakthrough by now IMO, I would move him on if we can.
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  30. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    https://understat.com/league/EPL/2018

    Looking at our expected points etc. from last Season, we look to be on the right track. We over achieved on our points by 4 points, with 4 goals below our expected conceded. Goals for, we neither over or under performed. Our expected finishing position was... 11th. This points to us being a solid mid table side with what we have, with Foster for the most part helping keep down the goals conceded by a few goals. It's easy to forget his impact over the Season given his weak finish to what was arguably his best Season in the Prem.

    Of course, a new Season could mean anything can happen, but it does indicate that what we're doing isn't 'lucky' or not sustainable over a few Seasons like when Burnley massively over performed before falling to their natural level. (17/18 stats - 54 Points, 41 Expected. 36 goals scored, 32.77 expected. 39 goals conceded, 52 expected. Expected position is 13th)

    If I was seeing this kind of stats for us over a Season then I would be concerned but we're doing what is expected and therefore is a sustainable and effective approach on the pitch. Of course, another Season of Gracia will see whether this Season was an overall over or under performer, but based off what we've seen he's doing a good job.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2019
  31. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Norwich, Sheff U and us or Burnley for me.
     
  32. vic-rijrode

    vic-rijrode First Year Pro

    I think we'll be so bad that we will occupy all 3 of the relegation places come the end of the season. No other club will get a look-in at the awfulness stakes.
     
  33. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Am I reading this right. The calculation was that Huddersfield should have got 13 more points than they did? Every time I saw them they were completely hopeless so I’m not sure I find that credible.
     
  34. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

    You are. That's surprises me too as I agree. Only thing I can think of is the cliche of when you're down in the mix you don't get as much going your way. Over a season that can add up.
     
  35. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Yeah. Guess I only saw about 8 of their games.
     

Share This Page