I think on paper we had the most difficult game of the bottom 6 clubs this weekend and we managed to gain a point on most of our rivals. Burnley might only be a couple of places above us by the time we play them on Thursday, a point there would keep us moving in the right direction. From what we have seen in the first round I think "home advantage" has almost been nullified.
The problem we have is that good teams who have either achieved their aim for the season and have nothing more to gain may take their feet off the pedal and field weakened teams against some of our relegation rivals. This could mean that although some of our rivals who look like they have much harder run ins than us on paper, could well end up beating some teams that had they played them earlier in the season would almost certainly have beaten them. Therefore we have to make sure that we pick up as many points as we can and not rely on our rivals losing games that they might normally lose.
By the time we get to the final week I think that Norwich and Muff will be down, the fact that Villa play West Ham on the final day means that as long as we are above both of those before we play Arsenal we know we will be safe. Despite their good result I still think that Brighton are in trouble but they may only need 2 more wins from the last 8 matches.
Well, in that little scenario (let's not count Bournemouth out just yet, even if they've had the look of a 19th placed team of late), we'd need to be in 16th and 2pts clear in order to be totally safe (1pt clear would probably be enough as our goal difference is currently a fair bit better than Villa, though I wouldn't bank on it staying that way with our record against City lol).
Edit for my above post: - Having said all the above we have a couple of fixtures against teams that on paper we would normally expect to beat us, therefore we could possibly gain from those teams taking their feet off the pedal as well. A win over Man City would be nice
It's really up to us. Results are impossible to predict. Win most of the games against the likes of Burnley, Norwich, Soton, Newcastle and WHU and we will be fine, lose to them and we will go down, irrespective of other results.
I agree that these are the 5 fixtures where we have to pick up at least 10 points from (hopefully more). Arsenal and City (even this dreadful Arsenal) will pose a challenge for us and I do not want to be in a position where we need points from those games in order to stay up. Of the 9 remaining fixtures, I had Leicester ranked as the 4th hardest game. Basically Chelsea and City give us very little chance of any points. Arsenal slightly more hope, but still unlikely in all honesty. Burnley and Leicester present an outside bet of a win, but I'd happily take a draw, but the other 4 matches I believe we have a good chance of winning, and expect us to win at least 3 of those 4. (I think we need to as well). When I see Sheff Utd, they are way off the required level and this is what I expected from them. I suspect their form will drop like a stone now and teams will get easy wins against them. They were dreadful at Newcastle yesterday. I certainly would fancy my chances against them now. Norwich, like Sheff U, look done. They were well off the pace against Southampton, and Southampton didn't have to do anything special in order to thrash them 3-0 in their own backyard. Villa nearly got a shock win against Chelsea and it was a tight game. Chelsea were obviously the superior side but looked a bit jaded. It was good that they got those two quick goals to turn the match as Villa took an underserved point against Sheff Utd, so it balances the books a little. Bournemouth look done for as well. There was nothing about them against Palace, who took a routine 2-0 win without breaking sweat. West Ham look very poor also. Another side that looks completely without fight. Wolves beat them comfortably 2-0 and I think if any of these sides go a goal down, mentally they are beaten. When we play Norwich or West Ham, it's vital to take the lead and give them nothing to cling their hopes to. Most sides in the bottom end of the table have just one player of danger. Newcastle have Saint-Maximin. Without him they pose no threat. Palace are strong and organised at the back with the Zaha threat. West Ham have Antonio, but nothing else. Bournemouth actually have a lot of decent players, but a lot of crap too. Ake, Fraser, Brooks, Wilson all decent. I'm a bit surprised they are doing so poorly, but I think it's more a case of the manager has lost his way and a new coach would fire them up. Luckily for us, the Bournemouth board are sticking by their man and that decision will cost them their Premier League place for sure. Villa have Grealish, but without him are nothing. Burnley are a unit and are physical all over the park. They are a team we should be able to match up to though, but they have a habit of just edging out games. Hopefully the behind-closed-doors situation will play to our advantage in our match. Basically there's nothing to scare us in our run-in. From the position we are in currently, with the remaining fixtures we have, we should not go down from here. Destiny is in Watford's hands and I believe the Pearson/Shakespeare combo, together with some leaders on the pitch such as Deeney, Capoue, Foster and Hughes, we'll have enough fight about us to escape, but it will be close. We need to cotton-wool Sarr and get the very best out of him as he gives us that veneer of sparkle.
One thing is for sure, home advantage has gone completely now and if anything it’s a disadvantage so it makes our point from Leicester look even more decent. As the home team the onus is on you to attack, but with out a home crowd there is no longer the basis for setting up differently home or away.
I agree that home advantage is now negated but I can’t see on what basis playing at home is a disadvantage. I think now the teams with the better players and also the better team spirit will tend to win, home or away. The other aspect that will be interesting to review at the end of the season will be the refereeing performances. Will they be seen as ‘fairer’ without the influence of a raucous home crowd? Over to you HB1.
All of our rivals play before Thursday, if they all lose then we go in to the match knowing we will be no worse off than now. Tomorrow: Leicester - Brighton Spurs - West Ham Wednesday Newcastle - Villa Norwich - Everton Wolves - Muff On paper Villa have the least tough match but Newcastle dispatched Sheffield Utd professionally yesterday.
The PL results were more patchy, but if you look at the championship games on Saturday there was only one home win, which is pretty remarkable. I think apart from the real top teams the advantage has swung to the away team, because as the home team there is nothing to build your tactics around. FWIW I think that will really benefit us against Burnley.
.....and if they all win then even a win just stands us still. Bottom line is there will always be some unexpected wins and we just have to win our games.
Looking at those games, Villa might get something at Newcastle, but I expect the rest to lose their games. However, West Ham tend to do well in the London derbies, so they could pick up a bonus point in that game. I can't see too many winners though, which bodes well for us of course.
I believe the 93rd minute equaliser will have given the players a huge boost, although Leicester's goal was slightly against the run of play, we needed a goal to prove we had it in us! We were a little nervy all game, which was a game of the unexpected!, now we know we can score I think we will have the impetus with Captain Pearson keeping everyone on their toes to go on and get some results! This could be a new beginning, look where we were before Pearson came in - relegated on single figures, what a chance he has given us!
Yup. I'd say this weekend was typical - 1 win, 1 draw out of the 6 bottom dwellers who played. We should expect that in each round of fixtures as a minimum. If somehow no one wins it'll be the exception rather than the rule I reckon.
Yes, and the game against Burnley will be so important for morale whichever way it goes. They are unbeaten in 5.
Yes unlikely but not impossible. Typically Burnley would be 20% possession, 10% of the shots and come away with a draw. I just posted their current form to show they're not easy to beat.
Could go level on point with Tottenham with a win, and while they've also taken some beatings from City, them getting a draw wouldn't surprise me one bit
One win and one draw will be enough for us. That will put my team on 36pts with a far superior GD. The team that finishes 3rd bottom will probably end up on 34-35pts max. Anyone notice our double over Arsenal ?
We did the double over them in 2 days over Easter 1986. 31/3/86 won 2-0 away. 1/4/86 won 3-0 at home. Malcolm Allen scored in both.
The team need to, and I think will, go for a win against Burnley. That would be massive on a number of levels: 1) regardless of other results it is 3 points and will pull us away from a few teams you would imagine 2) the confidence it would give us going into the “easier” games would make them seem much easier 3) 3pts for us would, hopefully, demoralise the teams around / below us 4) fortune favours the bold - let’s go for it It’s a massive game. With no crowd on the refs back it will be interesting to see if it pans out as a “normal” game away to Burnley. Come on Watford!!
