Pundits Predictions - 2019/20

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by wfc4ever, Jul 16, 2019.

  1. foxywfc

    foxywfc Reservist

    The gulf between the two divs is getting bigger every season. If teams don’t spend a season in the prem in next few years I think we will just see teams yo yo between the two. So if or when we do drop I think we would bounce back within 3 seasons, then it’s just a matter of staying in prem again. I don’t think we will struggle this year as other teams aren’t as good


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  2. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    It's better to rule in hell than serve in heaven.
     
  3. Pob

    Pob Academy Graduate

    Partly agree. But that model can be broken by a rich benefactor, corporation or nation state who is prepared to chuck a load of money at a team.
     
  4. Burnsy

    Burnsy Squad Player

    Is it? Quite a few promoted teams in the last few years (including ourselves) have come up and stayed up. Plus the increase in spending in the Championship puts quite a few of them on a similar financial scale as some lower PL teams.

    I think the reality is that there isn’t a huge gulf between the bottom half of the PL and the upper levels of the Championship.
     
  5. leighton buzzard horn

    leighton buzzard horn Squad Player

    I agree. There is a level of snobbery about the quality of Premier League (self labelled best league in the world) but there isn't a huge difference between top half of the Championship and the bottom half of the Prem.

    Going back to my earlier point about the top six being locked away from the rest of the peasants in the league, in the past ten seasons only 5 clubs not in the 'big six' have finished a season in the top six. I also think we will see the same top two for a few years now.
     
  6. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Since the Premier League started, people have always said the gulf has got bigger. There have been a couple of teams who yo-yoed a bit, but not many and not for terribly long. What normally closes the gap is a club in the Premier League overspending and suffering longer term. See Leeds, Sunderland, Bradford, Bolton & Blackburn.
     
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  7. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Wolves will unfortunately conquer the top 6 and join it.
    Newcastle and Sheffield Utd will be relegated.
    Norwich will surprise many people by finishing top half.
    I think we are due our just scrapping above relegation year - with our slow Teflon attack and hideous defence getting older and older. We will concede lots of last minute goals.
    Deeney will shout his mouth off against the big teams and they will spank us.
    the aggregate man city score against us will be 10-0 or more.
    We will exit the cups early
    Hopefully one of the top 6 will really fall off - Arsenal or Utd I think.
    Muff and Palace and Everton will all do better than we hope.
    VAR will help the big teams
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2019
  8. Guy

    Guy Squad Player

    Love a bit of optimism, palace for me to go down if they sell zaha
     
    Cthulhu likes this.
  9. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Well if I expect the absolute worst then if it doesn't happen Im doubly happy, if it does then Im less disappointed as it seemed inevitable.
     
  10. remoaner scum
     
  11. Burnsy

    Burnsy Squad Player

    And what about Villa? It’s an open secret they’ve been struggling to attract players after all....
     
    Keighley likes this.
  12. Burnsy

    Burnsy Squad Player

    In all seriousness, isn’t it stupid for any pundits or fans to be making predictions when pre-season has barely even started and the transfer window still has over 3 weeks to go?
     
  13. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Id forgotten about them. I am sure they have players but I dont think they were their first choices and they have paid over the odds IMO but are they good enough? Time will tell.
     
  14. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    The reality is that the finances are worlds apart, revenues and costs are just so much higher in the Prem. The issue becomes what to do when you get relegated. Take 3 years to reset your cost base so it's in line with the Champ revenues that will be in place 3-4 years ahead ? Or keep the better players, leave costs high, and push for promotion in those 3 years ? If we do the latter and don't get promoted we will be ****ed financially.
     
    Bwood_Horn likes this.
  15. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Reservist

    I can't be bothered to look up the actual stats but my strong impression is that it's much easier to stay up after being promoted (approaching 50%?) than to bounce straight back after being relegated (10%?). The latter is particularly true of teams who have been 'established' in the PL for a good number of seasons (e.g. Stoke were amongst the favourites for promotion last year) and many have fallen further than the Championship. People have been talking about 'yo-yo' teams for well over 20 years but there really haven't been any.
     
    RookeryDad, lowerrous and Bwood_Horn like this.
  16. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    I think it used to happen. West Brom/Charlton I think used to bounce up and down? It does seem to be a thing of the past as relegated clubs really struggle with being left with duds on high wages. I dread to think the players we would be left with in the championship who would be unsellable - Prodl, Success, Okaka, Masina, Zeegelaar. All the better players would disappear and if we are lucky we could build a solid team with Cathcart, Mapps, Cleverly, Gray.
     
  17. Keighley

    Keighley Squad Player

    I predict there will be more predictions to come.
     
  18. Going for a curry tonight - I predict a roti.
     
  19. Keighley

    Keighley Squad Player

    It's chapati, so cry if you want to.
     
    The undeniable truth likes this.
  20. foxywfc

    foxywfc Reservist

    I’m predicting the future mate, of course one or two will have a surprise season but the financial clout a season provides a club now compared to years ago is huge.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Was a jalfrezi. Sorry m8.
     
  22. CarlosKickaballs

    CarlosKickaballs Forum Picarso

    Staying in 18th would mean Javi has got the most out of this squad
     
  23. kVA

    kVA Reservist

    Let’s just hope that West Ham and wolves have a poorer seasons than us.
     
    CarlosKickaballs likes this.
  24. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    We finished 17th under Wally in what was an awful season albeit a few good results. We could finish bottom five for the next couple of years esp. with the current aging squad.

    Can we see what Pendz can do this season? If he can really shine up front like we all hope then it's a good move. Playing Delafoo on the wing is his best and propper position. Unless we have a injury crisis striker wise.
     
  25. Burnsy

    Burnsy Squad Player

    Penaranda has shown nothing at all since his Granada days. I'm sure he has talent but there are serious question marks over attitude and ability to stay fit.

    And no. Deulofeu was easily our best striker last season and scored double figures while not playing in that position for the whole duration. No reason to not think he could potentially get 20 goals this season given a full term there. The only caveat to that is that I would like us to play 4-2-3-1 and I have doubts about his ability to play as a lone striker.
     
  26. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Not sure he'd have the work rate to be a loan striker week each but least we'd see the ball being held up which our other strikers don't do well.
     
  27. Sahorn

    Sahorn Reservist

    Wolfs have just won the Asian China invitation cup thingy beating Man City.

    Peaked too early - downhill from here.
     
  28. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    You see. If we'd have qualified, we'd have won it. 7th was on the bag too :-(
     
  29. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney First Year Pro

    I don't think it is...
     
  30. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney First Year Pro

    Yes indeed. But so long as they all tip us to go down yet again I'll be confident of staying up...
     
  31. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    No, how about you just get behind relegation you traitor.
     
  32. Chumlax

    Chumlax Reservist

    I would be shocked if it was anywhere near 50% who stay up, but no, in terms of bouncing straight back, I know that it's nowhere near 10%; statistically it's around a third.

    I still don't understand how anyone can suggest that there isn't much difference between the top half of the Championship and the bottom half of the Prem. It seems to me that they've allowed themselves to be taken in by the odd heroic one-off cupset and the fact that a couple of clubs who were in the lower division at the time managed to spend considerable millions on a player or two, ignoring the huge difference in player quality throughout their respective squads and the contextual fact that the top Championship teams are viewed through the prism of performing against lower Championship sides, some with practically no funding whatsoever, whilst the lower half Prem teams are comparatively judged whilst performing against some of the best and most expensively assembled teams that have ever existed.
     
    Cthulhu likes this.
  33. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Reservist

    You’ve piqued my interest enough to look up the actual stats on this. Prepare to be shocked. Here are the results since 2000, i.e. 20 years’ worth of data:

    Of the 60 promotions in that time, 20 teams have been immediately relegated (33%), so two-thirds of promoted teams stay up for at least one year. There have been 6 seasons when none of the promoted teams have been relegated, 6 when 2 have gone down and none where all three have. Burnley, Cardiff and Norwich have each gone straight back down twice.

    Of the 60 relegations, 13 teams have bounced straight back (22%). There have only been 2 seasons when 2 teams have come straight back and 9 when none have done it. Birmingham, Newcastle and West Brom have all done it twice.

    Yo-yo teams: Birmingham is the only club to have moved in 4 consecutive seasons (down, up, down, up) from 2006 to 2009. Burnley, Man City and Sunderland have each had an ‘up, down, up’ sequence while Hull, Leicester, Norwich and QPR have had a ‘down, up, down’ one.

    Finally, without doing any rigorous analysis, it doesn’t appear that it is getting any more or less difficult either to stay up in, or get straight back to, the Premier League since the instances given above have occurred pretty evenly across the last 20 years.
     
    RookeryDad, 533, simpleMASH and 5 others like this.
  34. Chumlax

    Chumlax Reservist

    Wow, well done, I am shocked, I was very much wrong about staying up! Can't quite believe that. Looks like I should have gone with 'a quarter' rather than 'a third' for the bounce backs.
     
  35. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    That’s some nice work
     

Share This Page