Problems And Solutions

So, how has a vibrant club, who managed to beat Wolves in the Semi final of the FA Cup in April 2019, now find itself as a Championship club with massive debt and unable to sign a player for a transfer fee?

Well, it's been a catalogue of events.

Warning signs were there under Gracia. Sure, he got us to the FA Cup final, but after that our form nosedived. We were conceding goals at an alarming rate and the chase for Europe fell well short in the end. But, these warning signs were ignored. Complacency was allowed to creep in.

In the summer window, even though it was glaringly obvious, they did not seek to improve the defensive issues. They thought spending £5.5m on Craig Dawson would do the trick. The club spent all the window chasing Ismaila Sarr, and were so desperate to get him, they blew the entire budget on him.

But still, it was a statement signing. £30m on one player....wow...can Watford really afford to do such things? Well, the answer was no. They also signed Danny Welbeck, and even with his injury track record, he was still a big name signing for us. On paper, the squad looked good as an attacking force. Midfield excellent, but defence was still very Championship. This oversight cost them the Premier League fundamentally.

Watford came back pre-season so undercooked, it was embarrassing. They got the flukiest of victories against Real Sociedad in a pre-season friendly, but in all honesty, we could have lost that 7-0. For me, I was alarmed and thought Brighton are going to rip us a new one if we don't sharpen up........and of course they did.

So, the motion for failure was set in place. Failure to address obvious defensive frailties and a relaxed pre-season had undone all that hard work of the previous 4 years, but it was still retrievable at this point.

Failure number 2 was the appointment of QSF. Now, I still hold him in high esteem for what he did in his first spell, but it did go very wrong with him at the end. He kept us up and got us to the FA Cup semi final, but the wheels had well and truly come off by the time he left. So what thought process would lead the board to appoint someone they had fired previously? It made absolutely no sense at the time, and that's how it played out.

Failure number 3 was to ignore the winter window. Again, it was a disaster. Why the hell did they spend £7m on Pussetto and ignore the defence again? It was crazy judgement and virtually condemned us to relegation.

The club like to trot out the line "Covid relgated Watford", but it did nothing of the sort. Our home record after lockdown was P5 W 2 D1 L2 Pts 7. When you consider one of those defeats was against City, you can see there wasn't a major downturn in home form.

Failure number 4 was to sack Nigel Pearson with two games remaining. Again utter madness. Duxbury was later to comment along the lines that we have to trust him when he said they had to sack him. Well that doesn't wash with me. Nothing credible has come out of the woodwork since to suggest it was nothing more than an emotional reaction to a poor first half display at West Ham.

The blame for relegation last season was down to the decisions at board level. That's where the buck stops. No one else to blame for it.

So on to this season. Ok, we take at face value that lessons had been learned, more emphasis will be placed on youth, and the new coach will be given everything he needs in order to be promoted.

So, failure number 5 has to be none of that actually happened. Youth given a chance? Suarez, Estupinan sold, Penaranda, Cucho & Quina loaned out. Only Ngakia and Wilmott have had a sniff of first team action. Has the coach been given everything he needs? One left back of first team ability in the entire squad. A recognised problem in the central striker department, only 4 central midfielders, all with injury history and two being over 30.

Failure number 6 is even though they knew we had all these problems with the squad, they did nothing to rectify it. They sold Deulofeu and Capoue for lowball values and signed Gosling, Elliot and Zinckernagel on a free and nominal fees.

What I do not understand, why the reluctance to improve obvious weaknesses in the squad? Why did they appoint Ivic, after what must have been careful consideration, then sack him after 20 games and appoint a rookie head coach with virtually no experience, yet he still has to get us promoted?

All these failures point to a dramatic downturn in intelligence at the top. Arrogance, complacency and poor decision making has been rife for 2 years now, and the club's status on the pitch is reflected by this.

I feel the board treat the fans like peasants. Sure, they occasionally the play the game with lip service , throw us some crumbs (we don't even get cake), knock the revolt on its head for a few months. But I feel there is a real resentment building and you can see it in every quarter. Even the most supportive and diplomatic fans are firmly leaning away from the ownership.

Regardless of what Duxbury says from his ivory tower, the fans do not trust the board (as much), and the divide is getting bigger by the day.

So to solutions.

Wounds need to be healed. The first and most important thing for the board to do is communicate with the fans. Gino Pozzo has to speak to us. This is first and foremost what the club has to do right now. He needs to reassure and give a plan of action, which is honest and truthful. We can take it and we can get on board with that. But silence just shows contempt and fans are more bitter about that than anything else. No one wants to be taken for granted and treated like fools.

If the hierarchy are wise they will recognise this and bring the fans back onboard. If they don't then it could turn quite nasty from this point forward.

This season, well I think expectations have to be lowered. We still have a good shout of the play offs, but I think it will take another change of head coach in order to achieve it. We need to bring in someone of experience and good credentials to get the job done. Not saying we sack Munoz necessarily, but bring someone in to mentor him or have him as a number two, if he would accept the demotion (as Kenny Jackett did when GT came back).

If possible, bring in a free agent central striker. This is fundamental, but there are a lot of players out there. I'm sure they could find someone to fit the bill if the desire was really there.

These solutions, if invoked, could still turn this season into a successful one. One thing is for sure, and there is no running away from it, there has to be a change of approach from the top.

 

Lampard as manager, Costa Stiker. Offer them massive bonuses if promoted.

 

I'm not even sure they realise they can sign free agents. It's either that or what YellowKicks says about how we are viewed by players and agents is right and they aren't remotely interested.

 

Good post HB1. Even after the disaster of last year I was looking forward to this year with the younger players given a chance at a lower level. And due to circumstance we now have Deeney ruling the roost again and Gray stinking the place out. And both of them sucking our finances drastically. What a mess.

 

Yeah, we've had plenty of situations where we've d!cked players about is so many ways - Berghuis, Dja Djede, Murray to name a few. Then there's the dodgy ones like Pussetto and the ones that are a total mess like Pape Gueye and Marseille. Coming to Watford comes with a 50-50 chance of writing off your career for that period of time and possibly the prospect of a loan out to Belgium or Bulgaria.

And that's not including ones that haven't signed because of our negotiations, derisory offers and being generally underhand.

I suspect our name is mud in transfer circles.

 

That's probably why we had to resort to employing a leisure centre manager as out new head coach. No other **** wants to come here.

 

The problem last season is the same as this season, nobody to score goals. It’s all very well having Gerry and Sarr but that won’t get you very far without someone to get on the end of their deliveries and the same thing is happening this season. Dawson is performing well at West Ham, so is he a bad player or is Moyes just better at setting up a defence than any of our managers?

Or did the paltry return of just 36 goals (less than 1 goals per game and our worst return in the five years we spent in the PL) put undue pressure on our defence?

 

Great post hb1. Also goes further back, buying mercenaries offering them the shop window of premier league football to make a name for themselves only to be denied moves ending up with lots of individuals and no team.
I’ve no doubt if xisco got this lot up he’s out of a job as Gino and Scott get to sell the pitch of premier league club again enticing some more renowned name to step in. And again more mercenaries will come and sign and if it’s a slog at the bottom do they care. No they all know or hope a bigger club comes and takes a punt on them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

That’s the thing though, you can get defenders of limited ability to perform to varying standards. There are certain attributes you need to be a defender, but you don’t need a huge amount of skill compared to the rest of the positions in a team. Good or bad coaching (and with that motivation) is going to have a far bigger impact on how a defence performs as a unit than their individual abilities.

Unfortunately nobody can turn the clock back on Troy, or make Andre better than his. It’s why with a few notable exceptions forwards command far, far higher fees across the board, because there is a certain level of talent required to fulfil the role which is in finite supply and can only be coached to a very limited degree.

 

I couldn't agree more, particularly about the solutions but, of those, the only one I think likely to happen is that Munoz is replaced.

 

Problem? Deeney
Solution? Get rid

Problem? Gray
Solution? Get rid

Problem? Transfers
Solution? Settle on a style of play and bring in players that fit it

Problem? Head coach
Solution? Hire someone who's actually got a track record and fits the style of play you've decided to implement, give them more influence and back them

Problem? Finances
Solution? We're completely ****ed, there is no solution. Unfortunately, this probably limits our room for manoeuvre on all the other problems.

 

Problem head coach.
Solution. Get some experience above him that can help out.
Problem finance
Solution find a muppet billionaire that’s got cash to burn.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

No number of experience above Xisco will help him. He’s seriously under qualified for the role. We shouldn’t keep him in place and surround him with others just for optics - the reputation of the footballing side of the club is on the floor anyway. Sacking a head coach who should never have had the job anyway won’t change that for the worse.

As for finances, it will only solve it temporarily and partially - but they could have sold Sarr for what they paid for him if they were that desperate. I do fear though that the days of getting well paid for selling Hughes are diminishing fast.

 

Problem. L*ton FC
Solution. Take off and nuke the entire site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.

 

I think we'll probably make some decent money in the summer from Sarr, Hughes and Cucho, maybe even Sema and Pedro. Hopefully then we can pay off the dynamic duo upfront. Then we start a pretty brutal rebuild job hopefully focusing on younger players, like they said they'd do last summer. The head coach situation will still be a mess, they'll take their time appointing a new one over the summer and then sack him the first sign of **** hitting the fan.

 

Problem: We might well be in the fallout zone.

 

For me, this is the major underlying issue.

If Covid hadn't have happened, I suspect we could have moved on the likes of Deeney and Gray, and Capoue would have left in the summer instead of at Christmas, Freeing up those and other funds coupled with non-reduced TV monies from our last Prem season and non-reduced monies from parachute payments would have been a significant delta versus now (plus the transfer fees would likely have been higher too).

As it is, we lost already budgeted money from the TV money, lost a huge chunk of the parachute payments, and lost all our gate receipts and concessions earnings. Other clubs have no money either, so finding someone to take a chance on Deeney/Gray etc becomes a lot more difficult.

Regardless of what your will to change is, I don't see how you can effect significant changes under these conditions. We're basically stuck with the players we have and, thanks to Brexit, we've got to completely reinvent how the club's transfer policy works too.

I think the club could well have managed to reinvent itself under normal relegation conditions (whether it would have, of course, we'll never know), but the current financial situation is so bloody awful that it's hard what can be done in the immediate and short terms.

 

If things are done how they should be, we won’t need to payoff Deeney as he will be out of contract.

I also think once we are a club that didn’t get promoted - and clubs will almost certainly still be hamstrung financially (with only partially open grounds to look forward to) - we can wipe a fair few million off the perceived values of some of those players you listed.

 

I still think people overstate this point (no offence). There are plenty of coaches out there who will think they can be the ones to turn us around. We aren’t far off the PL, we are close to London...the job has quite a high ceiling if you can get it right. And if you don’t, your reputation is intact because ‘it’s Watford’ and you’ll get a nice payoff.

I bet it’s really not seen as the poisoned chalice many on here think it is, in professional circles.

 

Think we'll keep Pedro and maybe Hughes (if we can get him a new contract). Value definitely wiped off of Hughes and to a lesser degree Sarr, who will still go for 30m-ish.

Unclear though if Deeney is out of contract in the summer or not. Leventhal seemed to suggest last year that he signed a contract for an extra 1-2 years but the club has never made this public. If he's going to be around for longer, then we need to pay him off or convince him to be released on a free. I think given his history with the club and his reputation domestically and in the U.S. he'd be more likely to accept the latter and get a decent payday elsewhere than Gray. Gray I think we'll just have to payoff or loan and subsidise wages.

 

Good post HB and the more you look at the facts and recent downfall, I think GP has indeed made his decision.?
The choice was Invest and hope or shave costs and hope for a miracle.

I honestly think that the rebuild he spoke of means doing the best we can with what we can this season, and if we sneak promotion great, and if we don't then the big carve up starts in April and we cull old/bring thru youngsters and go again.
Many on here say we must go up due to finances but I feel sure GP is cutting our clothe to stay down and rebuild towards a new rebuild "cycle" like first time around...?

 

The thing is, I don’t think it’s a ‘player power’ thing so much as it’s a ‘player apathy’ thing. To many of them aren’t motivated to play for this club and only this club. That’s not the remit they signed under.

‘Come here, play well, move on’ has become blurred into ‘Come here, stay a while, move on’ for a lot of the players. And because they haven’t played well, they haven’t got the moves they expected they would when they joined - and they also have little connection to the club. Fans can help maintain that - but we aren’t there. So we have apathetic players who feel they are stuck here and were sold a false dream. You can also bet your bottom dollar they all saw what happened when Doucoure was denied a move too.

As for the Pearson thing, I bet it didn’t surprise many at all. Because they knew the nature of our club and they knew him - the two were always incompatible.

 

Yep.

The reality is that there are shed loads of people wanting to be managers/head coaches and only one position per club.

Clubs will never be short of applicants, especially if you're anywhere near the top league of a country. The supply of potential head coaches simply far outstrips demand.

 

Maybe. But the supply of head coaches who would add value and be a good fit for the squad and the club's needs and the club's recruitment process, who can command the engagement and support of the players isn't that big. Sure, there'll always be someone like Xisco who would jump at the chance. But how many Bielsas, or Nunos or even Wilders are there out there? i.e. a manager who can come in, impose an entertaining style, help build and train a squad that can grab the Championship by the scruff of its neck, and then retain that style and succeed to some degree in the PL which I think is the sort of thing we as fans are after. Who is the most appropriate person for that now who would be willing to come and join us?

There are maybe 5-10 quite different options who I think would be interested and be a good fit. Some of them might be interested in coming to the Championship but I think many of the British ones (Ryan Lowe, Paul Cook, John Terry, Eddie Howe) wouldn't be on board with coming to us specifically - given our track record with managers. Foreign managers, to whom the players may be less responsive to because their reputation may not precede them in the same way, but who are more used to dealing with hierarchies and managerial churn than many British managers, would probably be more willing, people like: Bruno Lage, Sergi Rebrov, Knutsen (Bodo/Glimt manager) and Javi Calleja. There really aren't that many - and you have to convince them that Watford is significant enough an opportunity to move their family to a different country, maybe even move their kids to new schools etc.

 

No one knows because the vast majority of head coach/managerial aspirants never even get a single chance to show what they can do, and of those who do a huge percentage only get one chance ever.

 

https://theathletic.co.uk/2073852/2...rticle_source=search&search_query=Troy deeney

Leventhal definitely seems to think Troy has another season after this one, maybe another if certain clauses are met.

 

Hahaha, fu cking hell, if that's true - I never expected anything less.

 

There's no way Deeney's contract expires this summer, otherwise we'd have heard about it by now. Deeney and Gray are going nowhere any time soon.

 

For. F*cks. Sake.

 

Be wary folks, don’t fall into the rabbit hole of believing everything Leventhal says!

(That’s not to say it’s not true - wouldn’t surprise me at all if another thing the supporters should have been told had been withheld from them)

 

Great post HB1! You've summarised what has happened over the last 2 years very well. You're right about how supporters feel and the need for Gino to speak openly and directly to the fans. I hope he does, it could prove pivotal in regaining the trust he had but is losing fast.