Premier League 2016/17 Relegation Watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Vicarage Road, Jul 25, 2016.

  1. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    Like I said before, if we had played these Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool & Everton fixtures earlier on in the season, it definitely would've been a serious concern.

    It's weird because hitting 40 points would equal safety for anyone else but if Hull had beaten Sunderland last week like they should have then we would have been in serious trouble.

    However, pre these run of fixtures have we even gone lower than 15th? We've been 10-14th most the season, 6-8 points clear of the relegation zone for most the season so it'd be unfair to say we were ever in real danger of getting relegated.
     
  2. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    If Hull win and we lose heavily, which i think is pretty unlikely, then we're still safe in my opinion given what still needs to happen.

    Your middle point is nonsensical. You only need to look at the three clubs' seasons as a whole to find your answer.

    And the ESPN article written by an angry Watford fan hardly counts for anything. It's basically a forum post on a website.
     
  3. Markoa$

    Markoa$ Reservist

    So going back to the Everton I actually thought we deserved a point.

    However the most frustrating thing for me was that Everton were absolutely rubbish with zero effort and yet we managed to not take advantage of that. If Mazzarri was more positive in going forward I actually think we could have thrashed them and got at least 3 goals had the players bothered to put the effort in.

    Everton really were there for the taking and that's what annoys me.

    Then I watch Bournemouth vs Burnley today and both teams are going for it with nothing to play for. However there is a desire there to play for the fans and give their all. Something our players are clearly lacking.

    I wish we had passion, grit, desire and fight that both those teams have and quite frankly, it's embarrassing we don't.
     
  4. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    Luther Basset , Like I said in my post EVENS is 1/1 , but 2/1 in decimal odds .

    If you calculate the odds of 2 heads coming up from 2 tosses of a coin i.e. An evens bet it's not 1/1 x 1/1 for that would still be odds of 1/1.

    Decimal odds describe 2/1 x 2/1 which is 4/1... which is the true odds of getting 2 heads on a toss of 2 coins .
    Like I said to HB 1 , if you had read my post properly it was explained clearly .
     
    jw- likes this.
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    You are bizarre. You're not even aware of how your argument is falling apart around your ears.

    So, if Swansea finish a point above us, and they were considered in a relegation fight, why aren't we considered that? It's where you finish after 38 games that matters surely?

    So.....going on your theory........if we end up in the bottom three after 38 games, we won't actually go down because we've not been in a relegation scrap all season?
     
  6. jw-

    jw- Reservist

    It's not the 40 points that leads to perception of safety for many, it's the fact no team has been relegated from the PL with 11 wins.
     
  7. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Well that's only 33 points. Far too much weight is put on past events, rather than what's happening in the here and now. Just because it's unusual doesn't mean it won't happen and this is the mistake people often make.

    You could win 13 games and draw zero......and still get relegated....not even getting 40 points. You just have to have one more point than the team in 18th place.......whatever that total is.

    Hull have 2 games left, win those and they will get 40 points, so this season that will be the possible cut off point right now. To be safe, we have to get one more point, which is beyond us, or hope Hull drop points which is totally out of our control. This is a vulnerable position to be in, and that's been totally overlooked all season by many on this forum.
     
    The Voice of Reason likes this.
  8. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Well ofcourse Swansea have been in a relegation battle all season!

    They have only just got out of the bottom 3..

    We certainly have not (or no more than a few other clubs who have fortunately got it together a bit)

    We have been one point from safety since the Hull game.

    Sadly we just have not played well enough to get anything..

    BTW I presume by saying Hull will win both games you feel we will lose very badly in both games and Palace go to OT and win?
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
  9. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Yes...but the trouble UEA is having difficulty in answering, is if Swansea finish 1 point above us, which I think is now likely, why don't people consider Watford as being in a relegation battle?

    They've ended strongly, and we ended weakly......but their final placement will be better than us. Surely if they've been in a relegation scrap, then so should we have?
     
  10. Luther Bassett

    Luther Bassett Reservist

    How can two heads be 4/1 in any sensible representation of odds? You bet a £ at evens, it's a head, you get two back. You reinvest this at evens, you win and end up with 4. That's a 3/1 bet, including your stake. Surely the point you're making is that HB is forgetting to reinclude the original stake in his multiple odds calculations?
     
  11. Luther Bassett

    Luther Bassett Reservist

    Why is the make up of 40 points in the least bit relevant?
    11 wins and seven draws is worth exactly the same as five wins and 25 draws...
     
    KelsoOrn likes this.
  12. J.B

    J.B First Team

    You seem to be unable to differentiate between probability and possibility. You were not special in thinking that it was possible we could get relegated. No one was arguing that it was a mathematical impossibility; anyone with the ability to do basic addition knew that it was.
     
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  13. jw-

    jw- Reservist

    I'm not talking about the make up of 40 points, I don't care about 40 points.

    I'm simply saying that no team with 11 wins has been relegated, and that is what may make people feel confident, not reaching 40 points. Presumably one of the underlying reasons is that winning denies other teams any points, teams that will be rivals.

    It is probably better for our survival chances to beat Hull, rather than draw with Man Utd, Spurs, and Arsenal for example.
     
  14. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Well as I say they have spent most of this sesason in the bottom 3 - we have hardly been near it yet in a bit of bother due to a bad run where one point would have been enough.

    Just as well they lost to us eh!

    Even just now there was some bloke from the Sun on questioning why the Pozos keep sacking managers who "keep us safe"
     
  15. jw-

    jw- Reservist

    I didn't say that it was only 11 wins. The here and now is important, but the future does seem to resemble the past.

    This just seems to be a truism and entirely missing my point about disregarding the significant of 40 points. You are entirely correct to say a team could win 13 games and still go down - but it's never even been close to happening so the example seems contrived.

    * or hope we concede a low amount, or hope Hull don't score enough, or hope Palace don't beat Man Utd.
     
  16. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    Bookmakers present odds in 2 ways to describe the same odds ... EVENS or 2/1 in decimal. Evens betting means you get your win plus your stake , decimal betting you don't get your stake back but instead 2 x your bet. It s a different way of describing the same bet . If you go onto any betting website it will present to you your odds in either way. The reason it's important is because when you are calculating the odds of multiple scenarios all happening simultaneously then you need to calculate in decimal .

    For instance ...
    The odds of a coin toss is EVENS ie 1/1 .
    But if I wanted to calculated the odds of multiple coin tosses and I multiplied 1/1 x 1/1 the odds would still be 1/1 which clearly isn't true .
    So you need to use decimal betting which is 2/1 x 2/1 = 4/1 in decimal betting which translates to 3/1 in old language .


    All major betting websites will have a section dedicated to explaining what I've just taken time out of my evening to explain to you ...

    https://support.skybet.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/37/~/fraction-and-decimal-pricing
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
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  17. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    I'm not going to give you attention by discussing this at length but I was trying to say in a soft way that when it comes to maths you are a bit thick. Enjoy reinforcing this point with other posters.
     
  18. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain



    And you are questioning my basic addition :rolleyes:
     
  19. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    I am not an expert on betting but how can 2/1 be a decimal? The fact you have a “/” in it makes it a fraction?

    In your coin toss example the decimal chance of getting a head is 0.5?
     
    hornetboy1 likes this.
  20. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    Geez get a room you lot!

    I'm only joking I love reading the debates on this forum, and everyone is entitled to their own views on said matters.
     
  21. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    Whatever the odds, and I have no idea who is right and wrong, the real point that HB1 has been trying to make is that for months posters have been saying that we were safe and he disagreed. I distinctly remember UEA saying it as far back 5 months ago.

    The fact is our club has come very close to being seriously involved in the relegation battle and, with a week to go, we may still only survive by virtue of goal difference. HB1 has been right. Our recent run of terrible results were as he and others predicted may happen, and he wouldn't be so insistent on boasting about it (and watching someone boast about our demise, is not a pleasant sight), if you lot just admitted that he was essentially right instead of arguing finer detail about probabilities. The important fact is, we are not mathematically safe yet.

    We have been playing like a relegation side for months and it is about time posters admitted it - and move to a more important matter now, which is how are we going to stop it continuing next season.
     
    hornetboy1, Keighley, Chumlax and 3 others like this.
  22. domthehornet

    domthehornet Moderator Staff Member

    Hull and palace will draw today.
     
  23. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    If we play like this next season - WE WILL go down.

    Brighton, Newcastle and whoever else comes up will play with freedom and no pressure to do exceedingly well in their first season, I doubt even Brighton will be involved in the relegation fight either to be fair. We, along with (going on this season) Palace and Hull/Swansea will.
     
  24. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    The bit about next season is relevant.

    However if we go down it'll be a bigger anomaly than Leicester winning the league (from the position we were in last month). Therefore its utterly ridiculous for hb1 to say he was right.

    He is right to say its mathematically possible. He's also right to say we've been poor and maybe lucky to get the wins and points we've acheived this season. All that does not add up to us being remotely likely to go down from the point where we beat Swansea. And also before this Swansea game we had a 6-10 point buffer with 10 teams below us. The fact was, that even if we played garbage (we have) and even if a few teams picked up form and overtook us (they have) for all the teams to do so would have been such an oddity that most sane people didnt give it more than passing thought. People have been quoting odds to highlight the absurdity of the counter argument, not to proove its not possible - only to be met with a passive agressive reply stating they are narrow minded and blind to fact.

    Hb1 is a passionate thinker rather than a rational logical thinker so I cant say hes wrong or stupid, because its what he sees.

    His argument is akin to saying we could beat Liverpool 3-0. So over a period of ten games we could win all ten 3-0. Yes you could, but no - logical thought tells you it will not happen.

    But it could so I'm right

    But it won't the odds are 1200000 - 1

    But it could, dont be narrow minded. Odds are not fact.

    (The 4/1 decimal odds represent there are 4 outcomes from 2 coin tosses head-head, head-tail, tail-tail and tail-head. Its just a different representation to normal odds.)
     
    Simmos, Annoying noises, J.B and 6 others like this.
  25. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Spot on.
     
  26. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    Basically all HB1 and me to a certain extent have been saying is that, our survival is not as nailed on as others are saying.

    I have been saying all along that although I do not really think we will go down, I am not arrogant enough to say that it is impossible that the worse could happen, and it still isn't. All I have been asking is that others acknowledge that fact rather than be so complacent, and I think that is basically what HB1 is asking too.
     
    hornetboy1 likes this.
  27. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Lots of things can happen in life - it doesn't mean they will. Limiting what you worry about to the things most likely to happen is going to save you a lot of stress and anxiety in the long run.
     
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  28. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    Completely agree, I can accept why people said we weren't in a relegation battle but all the teams (bar those below us) who at different times we thought would go down are now safe. We are not.

    As HB1 said many times it's where we end up after 38 games. I wouldn't say he's boasting though, I think he'll feel as sick as anyone if not worse because he tried to warn people the job wasn't done but the behaviour of the players and managers until Everton suggested job done. Using a rather poor analogy he's the person who warned the lord mayor about a fire at a bakers in Pudding lane. The lord mayor said 'a lady could piss it out' and that small fire turned in to the Great Fire of London.

    All of a sudden I think the management team have realised it isn't over but it may be too late. Under the Pozzos one thing is for sure, aside from that Leicester game we've always bottled our big matches (Leeds, Palace, Sheffield Wednesday and Palace) so I would not fancy our chances if it came down to the Man City match.

    The form of Hull, Leicester, Swansea and Palace has been miraculous compared to other teams bar the top 6 whilst ours has been poor at best. We can't blame injuries for the last 4 (probably soon to be 6) games. I thought the 3rd bottom team would go down on 34 points, they still could but it's less likely now imo.

    Without meaning to sound melodramatic I think our club will be utterly screwed if we go down this season because the owners aren't considering it at all. We will be a laughing stock and all those that we have upset over the past 4-5 years will take great pleasure in it.
     
    hornetboy1 likes this.
  29. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    I guess it depends on what you feel is likely to happen in the game today as to how safe you feel. I'd feel a lot happier if we had already lost to Chelsea but two games to erode our goal difference against two teams that can turn it on, worries me
     
  30. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Well said that man.

    Sometimes it takes another poster to step in and say the obvious. UEA probably has the most invested in this, as he knows he's been completely wrong over his stance, yet he will continue to defend his position as admitting he's wrong he thinks makes him weak.......actually the opposite is true.

    Will we go down? Probably not, but have we been smug and too complacent over our safety in the Premier League? Absolutely yes.
     
  31. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    The thing is, I've not plucked out "we will lose our last 6 games without scoring a goal, or we will lose 9 of the last 12 games" out of thin air. It's because I read the game quite well and have a gut feel for things, which has stood me in good stead in the past. I back my judgement over events.

    I could see we were very likely to nosedive, because of how the side was performing. Others apparently could not see this. My predictions have turned out correct (so far) because of my reading of the game.

    Now this is only one side of the coin. I consider my knowledge over Watford is very strong, but I have a judgement on other events based on my experience in the game. I looked at Swansea and Hull and knew the dog would wag it's tail a bit. I saw us a dead in the water, but I saw them as rejuvenated. Both had a good managers who would get positive results for them.

    Put that all in the melting pot and the conclusion is, we will be dragged into a scrap right at the very end of the season. This is where I'm coming from.

    Didn't Blackpool get relegated on the final day of the season, after spending absolutely no time in the relegation zone for the entire season? So this type of thing can happen.

    I'm not Nostradamus, but I see things clearly, based on strong logic and trends.

    Others put far too much emphasis on probability and the bookies odds. It's what an addictive gambler does. He has lost the last 20 goes on the fruit machine, but convinces himself he must win the next time because of probability and odds in his favour, but the next try is a loss also.

    Sometimes you have to see something for what it is and use your intelligence and intuition, rather than mathematical equations.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2017
  32. The PozzMan

    The PozzMan Squad Player

    This thread is awful.
     
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  33. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    HB1 is the forum anti King Midas.

    Everything forum post he touches turns to sh1t.
     
    onion8837 likes this.
  34. jw-

    jw- Reservist

    No. They were in the relegation zone with 2 games left on 36 points and 9 wins.
     
  35. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Did you know it's the posters with the losing argument that insults those that are stronger than them? So keep those cheap shots coming and I thank you for your comments.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2017

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