Premier League 2016/17 Relegation Watch

Deja vu?

 

You really think so, do you?

 

We're basically already relegated.

 

At present yes, if weren't to sign another midfielder we'd be seriously lacking in this department. We have great strikers but we can't rely on them to single handily keep us up again; plus as great as Ighalo was at the start of last season, that is clearly not his consistent level. Beyond that, it'd be foolish to think we have any particularly creative outlets in that team; Capoue, Doucoure, Watson and Behrami are by trade more defensive midfielders and Berghuis is wholly unproven at number 10. Don't get me wrong I think we'll make the signings needed to offer both creativity and flexibility, but at present our squad would probably go down.

 

We start planning for life in the Championship

 

Looking at the last five or so seasons of relegated teams, the pattern is pretty clear and often sadly predictable - teams that go down usually fall in one of three categories: (a) newly promoted (b) have been struggling badly and only just scraped survival the last season or more (c) finished the previous season very poorly. The hardest ones to predict tend to be the newly promoted teams (who would've predicted, for instance, that Wigan would do so well in 2005/06, and although there was always a possibility they'd struggle that Reading and Cardiff would go down so lamely in 2012/13 and 2013/14 respectively)? Very occasionally there's a high flyer from the previous season that unexpectedly gets dragged in, but the teams that fall in this category and actually go down (like Ipswich, Reading 2007/08 and Birmingham 2010/11) tend to be of the smaller sizes that have been punching above their weight anyway. However, looking at all the teams from 1st-11th, I just can't see any side that is likely to do that (Stoke are a slight possibility, but as long as they keep Mark Hughes, even that looks very unlikely).

I think I'm the first to pick this combination (if not the individual teams) - so, here are my choices + brief explanations:

18. Palace (you can't ignore their atrocious second half of the season form despite - or maybe because - of their FA Cup heroics, and unless they get a decent striker, I can't see it improving that much. Plus, it's not like Pardew hasn't been embroiled in a top flight relegation struggle before, like with West Ham who would/should have gone down were it not for the Tevez controversy even after the Curbishley replacement.)
19. Bournemouth (but it'll be close. Would've picked Sunderland in either 18th or 19th before being reminded of the Moyes appointment, so unlike Villa, they may, just maybe, finally break out of their rut and finish closer to top 10 than relegation. This is more of a gut feeling than anything but I reckon one of the popular choices Burnley may surprise a few teams, and there have been plenty of teams that get promoted and go straight back down and then go straight back up and survive next time round with largely the same players, having emerged wiser and stronger from the experience.)
20. Hull - no explanation needed

As for us - well, if we get relegated at least we can know who to blame rather than our own team's pathetic efforts when we've had the more than sizable chunk of 33 or so games against easier opposition to get the points we need - but seriously, I can see us being like Stoke in Mark Hughes' first season, looking like relegation candidates to outsiders up to the New Year (but actually for those ITK playing better than the results suggest), but then a much improved second half as the players have fully bedded in and got comfortable with Walter's system, we look more solid and forwards have started converting their chances more regularly.

 

Thanks for your response - although reading it was not good for my blood pressure! This is the best squad I can ever remember us having. Put as much as you can on a top 10 finish. I accept that this will not be an easy season, but we will not be relegated

 

I wholeheartedly agree with both those statements. I'm just stressing we're not the complete package until we reinforce, Lemina and Pereyra (or similar) arrive and I think we'll have a great shot at the top 10.

 

Hull City
Burnley
Bournemouth

And in my dreams Chelsea.

 

Not sure how you can so unequivocally state that. His time in the Championship and start of last season form a greater span of time than the latter half of last season when his form, along with others (Capoue, Nyom et al) all nosedived. Then he had his father's death to deal with on top. I don't know the true Ighalo and neither I suspect do you.

 

I think it was pretty clear that the spirit in the changing room was really poor most of last season. Much will depend on how the new guy turns it around.

There will still be plenty of competition for places so potential disgruntled players all round. How that is handled will be key.

If we play to our potential, then top half, otherwise I think we are in for a worrying season.

Personally, I feel we'll be top half, particularly if we can sign a good attacking midfielder!

 

Ighalo's a great player and I suspect he will score another 10 or so goals this season. But averaging almost a goal a game in the Premier League is only possible for perhaps the 10 elite strikers in the world, never mind someone who had failed to score even close to that regularly throughout his career previously. I just don't think we can be reliant on him to single handedly win us games this year as that run of form would be a purple streak even for the best in the world. I suspect Ighalo's true performance levels fit in somewhere in between the two periods we saw last season.

 

What evidence have you got to suggest that? I thought it was really good up until the Arsenal cup game even when results/performances were steadily declining, admittedly after that god knows what went wrong in the camp for the remainder of the season.

 

Probably only half the changing room ie the half that felt they weren't getting enough game time. I expect the other half were quite happy.

 

Agreed. I think there were 2 things last season. Firstly there was no real competition for places up front so he knew was pretty much guaranteed a start. Secondly because there was no real competition for places he was overused and was probably knackered.

Given the striking options we currently seem to be more blessed with this season, I can see his game as a whole improving. But a drop in form, a drop in fitness and he gets a rest. I'd say he'll get 10+ this season along with Deeney.

 

Muff/EH

Eddie Howe is poor at working with non British players. He does not gel with older players. He likes full control. He was homesick when at Burnley and he did not gain full control of the transfers/players.
Matt Ritchie fell out with him and did not want to stay, even though he was offered improved terms. Bournemouth are gambling again and have spend next season Premier money already.

 

Well it was pretty clear to me, just by watching body language, communication, effort, etc. The sort of thing I look for in teams I have been in and managed myself over 50 odd years, football and non-football wise.

But, no evidence, just opinion. Although I think the terrible run since Christmas is pretty good "circumstantial" evidence.

 

I genuinely think that Ighalo lost his head in the second half of the season following the Man Utd interest (when we supposedly rejected a bid for him). Even if he doesn't hit the heights of the start of last season, I'm confident that overall he should still have a good one in this one now that he's had a chance to recalibrate himself and get some focus back.

I agree with your concern about our continued lack of creativity - but surely with Abdi and Jurado going we have a quality attacking-mid replacement lined up?

 

Do you not think our style of play had something to do with it? Worked in the first half didn't in the second, the fa cup semi summed it up, we didn't have an identity and just hoofed it up to the strikers, no wonder Igahlo went off the boil.

As for next season, well I hope Walter gets the best out of Capoue. The guy is magic but by his own admission he was great friends with Flores even stating they had a "father son relationship" hence he had no competition for his place and seemed content to just see how many nutmegs he could do in a game. If Walter can provide a bit of discipline and actually make him do his job and do it well then I think we'll be fine. We'll have a stronger defence and decent midfield and a stringer attack.

 

If we don't buck our ideas up we are

 

Going down

Today, We could not score again.
We are most fans/pundits favourites to go down.
I hope not, but it does not look good at all.
WM may get his P45 by Christmas

 

As good as down after today

 

If we don't VASTLY improve on today's performance we are :dismay:

 

Watford in the mix with 6 others.

 

Think this has been the first time I have felt we have had a negative transfer window in 4 years. Still time to put it right of course but it doesn't bode well to me that the line up today had Nyom at centre back, no real room for Success and a team really struggling to get to grips with the formation. I think we are really in a scrap this season. At present I would say the most likely teams to go down are us, Burnley and Hull.

 

I think we are all in for a nervous week ahead, as we continue to check out every report and rumour, until we finally get confirmation we have signed at least two creative players that most of us know will make all the difference and complete our squad in time for the big kick-off.

I'd say we are about 80% of the way there to having a squad to keep us up.

 

Not as much as Abdi's loss to us.

 

Completely agree. Their best & most important player IMO. He'll take some replacing.

 

I think we will, along with Burnley and Hull.

 

I would have thought Sigurdsson would be the bigger loss - he pulled the strings in midfield for a side that often struggled to score goals (especially when Monk was still in charge) and it's no coincidence that once he started scoring regularly they climbed from the relegation zone to midfield safety.

Don't be fooled by the fact he's played for a lot of clubs (as I was) - he's quality, easily one of the better Iceland players of Euro 2016 among players of (as you'd expect from a nation of their size, in fairness) very limited ability.

 

2 points off Hull, Swansea and WBA already

Worrying

 

I think Hull are potential champions. We won't see them much in this thread.

 

https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/252/Tournaments/2/England-Premier-League

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man U and West Ham all in the bottom six ... amazing!