Premier League 2015/16 Relegation Watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Meh!, Sep 20, 2015.

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  1. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Early days I know but we're 6 games in and the table looks a lot different than a lot of us would have expected.

    At the start of the season I'd have picked out the bottom 8 mini league that we'd need to take points off as:

    West Brom
    Newcastle
    Sunderland
    Norwich
    Bournemouth
    Villa
    Leicester

    Newcastle, Sunderland and Villa are all there or thereabouts, but the rest of the teams are performing pretty well.

    BOTTOM 4:

    Sunderland next up have Man City (h), Man Utd (a), and high flying West Ham (h) so could well still be on 2 points from 9 games.

    Newcastle cant be expecting much change out of Chelsea or Man City in their next 2 outings so will be going into October with not much more than their 2 points.

    Never thought Stoke would be pulled in so early with their relatively easy start but they are not looking great and could well find themselves still there come November time - but must be hoping for 4 points from Bournemouth (h), Villa (a) and Swansea (a) in their next three games.

    Aston Villa were one that most expected to hover around the relegation zone for most of the season after last year. They've taken just 1 point from their last 3 vs Sunderland, Leicester and West Brom and have just 4 points from 6 so far with the next three of Liverpool (a), Stoke (h) and Chelsea (a).

    Massively happy where we are and with Palace (h), Bournemouth (a), Arsenal (h) and Stoke (a) in the next 4 we should be hoping for a possible 4-7 points, and you've got to expect Spurs, Saints, Liverpool and Chelsea to pick up soon

    So with the tough games the above 4 highlighted have coming up, you could see a 7 -10 point gap opening up to the bottom 3/4 by October. I know things can change, but the situation definitely looks bleak for these 3/4.
     
  2. UpUpAndAway

    UpUpAndAway First Year Pro

    My relegation 3 would be:

    18) Norwich
    19) Bournemouth
    20) Sunderland

    Both Norwich and Bournemouth don't have the sufficient squads, they look decent now but don't think they can hold up for a full season. Sunderland are just s***.
     
  3. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    In my opinion a league table after 6 games is an irrelevance and, at best, a novelty. I had literally no expectations as to what it would look like now.
     
  4. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I think Norwich have just amount of quality and experience in order to escape, I would agree with Sunderland and Bournemouth going down but alongside Aston Villa most likely.
     
  5. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Bournemouth look really good going forward but are conceding too many and don't have a strong squad past their first 11. If they can pick up enough points before injuries and suspensions kick in, I can see them surviving.
     
  6. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    Don't like them, but I have to agree, unless they pick up a few longish injuries to key players.
     
  7. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I agree. There are far too many teams who are well away from where I'm 100% sure they will end up. What's more important is the rate we are accumulating points. If we can get to 15 points after ten games, then that's a good target.
     
  8. Siohmy

    Siohmy Reservist

    Stoke will improve as will others. 6 games really isn't enough to draw too many conclusions. That said both north east clubs defences are shocking and if you have a poor drfence at this level you need to sort pretty damn quick or you'll be in trouble. For us, certainly a season to genuinely bring back the countdown. Now need, probably, another 31 points for safety from 32 games. Bit like cricket, we need to try and keep the points required below the number of games left for comfort.
     
  9. The PozzMan

    The PozzMan Squad Player

    We need to do well before December, and our games v Sunderland and Norwich are key because of the box of fun that is Lpool, Chelsea, Spurs and City.
     
  10. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I was just thinking that, if we can hopefully be mid-table before Xmas then that would be ideal because the Xmas fixture list is horrific. If we are hovering around the bottom 6 before those games then we'll be in trouble, got to make hay while the sun shines so to speak.
     
  11. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I also agree with what has been said about Norwich and Bournmouth, they are both very light and bought next to nobody in during the window, Norwich are particularly worried about cover in defence as they virtually have none, and Bournmouth essentially went backwards with their squad with the unfortunate injuries they sustained. I don't have any axe to grind with either of them but I genuinely expect them both to fade badly at some stage with what are very weak squads.
     
  12. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    Yes it's only 6 games. Some will get better & some will fade. However, we are already seeing suggestions as to some of this season's strugglers. Toon & Sunderland may well improve but I think they're both in for a tough season.

    Plus we've already put 6 points between us & the drop zone, which is definitely not an irrelevance
     
  13. Siohmy

    Siohmy Reservist

    Maybe a19 but Reading nearly made Europe a few years back with the record point winning team. If you can stay largely injury free you can be OK. You do have to worry about Bournemouth if they get a serious injury to either Wilson or Ritchie but I do not know enough about their fringe players to know for sure.
     
  14. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Don't see why we should look on Liverpool/Spurs as any more difficult than Swansea/Everton really. Both sides are distinctly average by their own historical standards. Forget reputation imo.
     
  15. BusheyOrn

    BusheyOrn Reservist

    There are definitly not just 3 but 5 worse teams than ours. We look solid and well organised. Nevertheless we could still lose all the next 4 games, or win 2 more, who knows! :)
    At least below us will be:
    Sunderland
    Aston Villa
    Newcastle
    West Brom
    Leicester (despite their good start)
    And only one of Norwich / Bournmouth

    I really think all 3 of the promoted teams have a good chance to survive.
     
  16. The PozzMan

    The PozzMan Squad Player

    Because in recent years both tend to have a run of 8-10 games when they play bloody well, and often against the lower placed teams, just a possibility. That and all those games in such a small confined space of time.
     
  17. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    I think each promoted side has some tools available to beat the drop, Bournemouth will punish teams like Sunderland every time. If you play lethargically at Bournemouth, they will punish you, equally they will lose a few but if you can win enough you'll always have a chance. Norwich have a bit of confidence and have a few options in the squad, Neil is looking like it does not faze him, Jerome has a point to prove to the premier league and Redmond/Hooladiver are capable of turning games.

    Then you look at Sunderland, Newcastle and Villa, who have all been struggling in recent years. They show no signs of improvement and you wonder how long it'll be until managers heads roll? Previous seasons you'd have them finding a couple of teams who struggled badly and meant they could stumble through the season, stay up and say "next year it'll be OK". This year, possibly it's not OK. I wouldn't discount a change of manager and a spell of ten games where Newcastle/Villa/Sunderland improve but it's not looking likely.

    Could Stoke go down? I don't rate Hughes much, but Bojan, Shaqiri, Arnautavic (sp) and a few others have quality, like West ham with Sahko and Payet etc. Palace are flying, Southampton and Swansea are pretty decent and would be a real surprise to end up in the bottom 3. WBA I think are in a battle, Berahino probably gone in Jan, they were getting a takeover and investment that never materialised along with the 7 new players they wanted. Pulis could get them fighting for every point and staying up but equally they could go down in poor style with the fans asking questions.

    Nothing to fear is the lesson our players have learnt so far.
     
  18. wfc124

    wfc124 Reservist

    Leicester wont go down this year. Already they have 12 points and have enough good players and a team ethic to stay up
     
  19. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    I agree that they're playing well and have the points on the board but thinking back, weren't Charlton in the top 5 after 19 games once and still got relegated?
     
  20. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Blackpool must be the best example. Their results to the end of December read P17 W7 D4 L6 (including away wins at Wigan, Liverpool, Stoke and Newcastle) They were 8th in the table then.



    [​IMG]
     
  21. Godfather

    Godfather bricklayer extraordinaire

    TBH almost every club has strengthened and has reason to believe they will survive but the 25 man squad rule is an absolute killer for teams that can't attract high quality back up to the big names they have managed to sign and/or the versatility to change things about when key injuries occur. We look like a side that could cope with injuries but more importantly if it does go a bit Pete Tong we will have a far easier time recruiting than our (by then) relegation peers.

    Never say never in this game ... it really is in the hands of the Gods.
     
  22. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    Good assessment. My bottom three: Newcastle, Bournemouth, Sunderland.

    At the beginning of the season I thought West Ham, Bournemouth and Sunderland. There seemed something not right about West Ham off the pitch but they seem to be doing fine on it. Newcastle seemed to be likely to improve with their new players and manager, but the culture of non-achievement is apparently too deeply ingrained.
     
  23. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Any reason why you're all ruling out Villa? Seem to have had an easier start that most and don't have a massively strong squad.

    Would put them in the bottom 4 at best.
     
  24. wfc124

    wfc124 Reservist

    Nearly always ( unless a team is so far adrift that they cannot catch up) a team near the relegation zone who show form in the last 8 games of the season will stay up. Look at Leicester last season. Even Watford in 95-96 were close to staying up in the Championship after a late run at the end of the season when they looked certain to go down. Momentum is very important and we are only 6 games in. People are writing off Newcastle now but I think they have enough quality over the season to stay up - they look a dis organised bunch who are short on confidence. If this carries on they may look for a new manager.

    Sunderland look doomed already but there are no obvious candidates apart from them. People change their minds a lot over a season. Some people were seriously tipping Palace for a top 4 challenge this season a couple of games ago. West Ham were supposed to be a defensive mess after they lost 4-3 to Bournemouth.
     
  25. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Villa being poor has been a constant so far this season. They were battered at Bournemouth in their only win. They are my pick to go down with Sunderland. Not sure about the final place.
     
  26. ForzaWatford

    ForzaWatford Squad Player

    I reckon one of them two will get rid of their manager and bring big sam in and be ok, annoyingly.
     
  27. Jellyman

    Jellyman Squad Player

    Villa and Sunderland are my confident picks. The latter is just a shambles and Villa have an average manager and not a goalscorer in sight.

    The other could be taken by anybody really.
     
  28. Manatleisure

    Manatleisure Reservist

    Trouble with teams struggling now is that if it's still the case xmas time new managers come in and in some cases those teams improve and survive. So it's a false picture in a way.
     
  29. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    He's carved out quite the little niche for himself. Every year there will always be three teams looking to hire him.
     
  30. WFCMICHIGAN

    WFCMICHIGAN Academy Graduate

    Had this as my preseason relegation prediction and sticking to it. I knew Sunderland would be bad, but didn't expect they'd look as abysmal as they have.
     
  31. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

  32. Nnnn

    Nnnn First Team

    Established Prem clubs can usually count on at least 1 or 2 of the promoted clubs being a bit crap & going straight back down. After 6 matches though, all 3 promoted clubs are in mid table & so far look nothing like strugglers. For once all 3 could stay up comfortably. If this continues someone else'll have to get relegated instead.

    Bad news for most of the rest of the division.
     
  33. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Still think any of the following could be down there come the end of the year:
    Sunderland
    Newcastle
    Stoke
    West Brom
    Norwich
    Bournemouth
    Watford
    Villa
     
  34. AshdonWFC

    AshdonWFC Prediction League Champion 2011/12

    Really narrowing it down then - 8 out of the league's 20 teams...

    (To be fair, I agree with those named, although I expect Stoke, West Brom and ourselves will be fine.
     
  35. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

    Reckon you could add another three or four to that list. Six games in no one can say much of anything.

    It's not even for 'once' all three promoted clubs are looking comfortable - as recently as 2013 all three promoted clubs (Swansea, QPR & Norwich) retained their PL status. For this reason alone I'm as confident we won't get relegated as I was last year. Nor would I wet myself if we did secure a top 8+ place. Truth is nobody knows a thing other than the probable top 6...and I bet you wouldn't get fantastic odds for the Top 6 not being City, Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool.
     
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