Prem 2 - Europe to relegation 2018 - 2019

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by EB Hornet, Aug 11, 2018.

  1. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    As pointed out on another thread (Premier League Analyses) there is some margin between the top 6 and the rest. The chances of victory against the top 6 is around 11% (based on last seasons results). Obviously all 38 games matter, but as also shown on the other thread it's the results against the 13 teams around us this will mainly determine how our season pans out. Below is last seasons table from results amongst themselves (so no games v top 6)

    Prem 2 V Prem 2 table 2017 2018.PNG

    Finishing in the bottom 3 in this mini-league sent Stoke, Swansea and WBA down.

    For those interested I'll keep a running table this season with just the results from games between teams outside the big 6 (Man City - Arsenal).

    I also feel this is where judgements on the team should be made. Because we will take some heavy defeats to the big 6, and unfortunately that's 12 games of the season - nearly a third - which skews the sense of how well we feel we are doing in relation to who we are and what we have.

    Interestingly we were only outscored by 5 teams in this league last season and were only bettered by 6 in terms of goals conceded. Maybe our settled squad isn't as bad as it may seem (but that debate can be kept to the many other threads where it's being discussed).

    For survival we probably only need to win 8 games from this mini league (out of 26) and pick up the same amount of draws.

    I'll do a weekly round up with fixtures and results and keep the table up to date.

    Hope some of you find this of interest as we go on. I'll also do a preview of the teams in this league some time this week, again I don't think things are as bad as some may feel.

    Never thought I'd say this, but here's to us doing a Burnley this season!

    Come on you Hornets!!
     
  2. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Week 1 fixtures - very interested to see how the new teams get on today.

    Bournemouth V Cardiff
    Fulham V Palace -
    Watford V Brighton
    Wolves V Everton
    Southampton V Burnley
     
  3. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

    Muff was an easy prediction win. Cardiff will be in a lot of trouble this year. What's the lowest points total?!

    Palace did well. Not seen ant highlights to show if they deserved it.

    We had a fantastic result.

    Everton were screwed by, imo, a dodgy red card. Did make me laugh.

    Saints are big favourites today. Not sure why. Burley at 4-1 is a big tempter, think I'll put some money on at least a double chance for them at 5/6.
     
  4. I Blame Bassett

    I Blame Bassett Squad Player

    Should Fulham have had a penalty when it was 1-0?
    Foul on Schurle.
     
    Ray Knight likes this.
  5. andrew2209

    andrew2209 First Year Pro

    11 by Derby in 2007-08
     
  6. Moose

    Moose First Team

    Table shows that if we want to progress we need to change our name. A name change to ‘Batford’ would see us rise two places.

    We can slip any existing Batford village team a few quid as compo.
     
  7. Or just beat Huddersfield...
     
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  8. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    2 games in 24 hours is a bit tough on the new leaner Troy ??
     
  9. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Fool! In light of Brexit we need to reaffirm our national and cultural identity Ætford.
     
  10. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Reservist

    You do know that Batford is in Harpenden, don’t you?
     
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  11. Moose

    Moose First Team

    Yes, that's why I said combo for Batford Village. It's between Smallford and Harpo.
     
  12. Stevohorn

    Stevohorn Watching Grass Grow

    By the end of today we could have lost our European qualification spot.


    Disappointing season so far.
     
  13. Guy

    Guy Squad Player

    Good to see we are above Everton
     
  14. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    Typical good start followed the traditional slide
     
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  15. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    Level pegging with Manchester City. If we keep that up we'll probably avoid relegation
     
  16. Sahorn

    Sahorn Reservist

    Is there any make up of ANY table where we are actually above Muff..
    Ever since THAT game (where we could have been Championship champions but f###ed up and the trophy was kept in its box instead of being paraded around the Vic and then deposited in one of the many empty spaces in our trophy room), they have been above us.
    Sick of them and sick of it... it still hurts ..

    (Like the idea of this table btw EB - good work)
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2018
    EB Hornet likes this.
  17. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Cheers....and I'll get thinking on a new twist that gets us above them....
     
    Sahorn likes this.
  18. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    This is how Spanish speakers already pronounce us although with a purr replacing the D.
     
  19. Moose

    Moose First Team

    We are Batford, super Batford.
     
  20. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I've always said that if we finish about man city, Man Utd and Spurs we'll avoid relegation.
     
  21. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Reservist

    Source?
     
  22. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    It's just one of those things that pundits say. Obviously it's not mathematically foolproof
     
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  23. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    I believe it's held true in 15 of the last 18 seasons. Hence the saying, "If you can't get 40 points, at least make sure you stay above Man city, Man Utd and Spurs".
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  24. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    Great post, I'd like to see us finish in the top half of that table this season
     
  25. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    It has long been a dream of mine to see WFC one day top of the Thirteen Teams Around Us League.
     
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  26. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    Sadly no auto promotion into the elite closed European monopoly club.
     
  27. GoingDown

    GoingDown Pizza & Figs

    17th and a brave 8-0 defeat to Liverpool in the FA Cup 3rd Round this season should be viewed as a huge step forward.
     
  28. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Reservist

    If Merson says it then that's enough for me.
     
  29. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Indeed. Only Wigan, Bolton and Bradford have gone down after finishing above those three, but those seasons were statistical outliers.
     
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  30. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I have always looked at the 13 teams immediately below us and been pleased that we've won that specific championship
     
  31. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth Squad Player

    The 3 exceptions that prove the rule.
     
  32. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Reservist

    That's because they didn't get enough bonus points for goal difference iirc
     
  33. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    We're still second in the table to our "new" "rivals*".

    *And I'm looking at their figures with quite a level of scepticism judging by their tiny ground size.
     
  34. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Haha yes I understand the sarcasm towards this thread. For me though it’s not just about winning a mini / fake league. Its for a few reasons.

    When we were a championship club the target was clear and also achievable, yet still very challenging and it made for exciting times. It’s tough being in the perm knowing there’s not all that much to go for. People discuss top half, and yeah that’s great and would be an excellent season but we’re not going to break into the top 6 and challenge for the league, in 5 years time will we really care we came 10th? Luckily 7th place will more often than not get you into Europe so I guess that’s now the big dream / target.

    More than that though is trying to (and I’ve desperately tried to avoid this word as it’s become a bit of an annoyance recently on here) find some ‘perspective’. A third of our games are against the top 6, and the other two thirds are against teams with the same or often more income than us. We will go through a horrible run of results at sometime so where do you judge the side and the manager? For me it’s this mini table where judgements should be made.

    And slightly off topic but still relating to the targets for the season, I’m desperately hoping we can take the cups seriously and get a great draw throughout to give us that one glimps of potential silverware.
     
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