Prediction League

Discussion in 'Last Man Standing' started by Otter, Oct 14, 2020.

  1. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    As I mentioned in the other thread last week, I will launch a new competition starting from this weekend, the round numbers will align with the match numbers from the league so the first week will be labelled as Round 5 and so on. The competition rules and explanation is as follows, it will work a bit like Last Man Standing:

    1. All participating players choose a team from the current week's fixtures.
    2. If your chosen team win, you will accumulate points based on how many consecutive correct outcomes you get.
    3. If your chosen team draw or lose, you will get 0 points and your accumulator resets.
    4. If a match involving your team is abandoned or postponed, your accumulator will remain in tact however you cannot choose a match that is highly unlikely to take place due to FA Cup/weather or Covid likely to postpone it unless it's been pushed to the midweek immediately following a weekend.
    5. During the remainder of the competition you must choose each team at least once but you cannot use a team twice until 16 rounds have passed since you last used them. There are 42 rounds left but it's likely that there will be fewer rounds than that played, if you choose a club in round 5 you can't use them again before round 21.
    6. To enter the competition simply make a selection in any week, I'll do this in a separate thread, if you miss round 5 it doesn't matter you can start round 6 on 0 points.
    7. If you are running late, you can enter provided there is at least one remaining fixture not yet started in the round involving a team that you have not chosen. (i.e. if this weekend you don't enter until 1pm on Saturday, you can't choose our match or the 12:30 kick offs but you can choose any of the 3pm kickoffs).
    8. If you forget to enter a round your accumulator automatically resets to zero.
    9. The winner will be the person with the most points and have at some point chosen all 24 teams.
    10. I'll include midweek fixtures when there's a round of them.
    11. Everyone will get two "draw insurance" chances, you can use them in any week but it would be wise to use them when you are well in to an accumulator, it means that if your chosen team draw their match you accumulator stays in tact.
    12. Those who got past round 2 of the first Last Man Standing will get some bonus points in recognition of their achievements, team selections for the remaining players in that competition is independent of this new competition.
    13. A weekend round of fixtures starting from a Friday or a Saturday will be posted by the Wednesday, a midweek round will be posted by the Sunday. This will limit overlapping of rounds but that may not always be possible later in the season.
    The points accumulator will work like this:

    If your team wins you will accumulate the square of the number of consecutive rounds correct, when you choose a team that doesn't win your accumulator returns to zero but you keep the points earned, they get added to your season total.

    Example:

    Round 5: Team A chosen, win = 1 point.
    Round 6: Team B chosen, win = accumulator is now 4 points.
    Round 7: Team C chosen, win = accumulator is now 9 points.
    Round 8: Team D chosen, lose, you keep your 9 points, but your accumulator resets.
    Round 9: Team E chosen, win = accumulator is now 1 point, but season total is 10 points.
    Round 10: Team F chosen, win = accumulator is now 4 points, but season total is 13 points.
    Round 11: Team G chosen, lose, you keep your accumulated 4 points plus the first set of 9 points, but your accumulator resets.

    The draw insurance, you must specify when you want to use them when you have any available.

    Round 5: Team A chosen, win = 1 point.
    Round 6: Team B chosen, win = accumulator is now 4 points.
    Round 7: Team C chosen, win = accumulator is now 9 points.
    Round 8: Team D chosen, win = accumulator is now 16 points.
    Round 9: Team E chosen but you specify the draw insurance, draw = accumulator remains at 16 points.
    Round 10: Team F chosen, win = accumulator is now 25 points.

    If your draw insurance team wins your accumulator will go up anyway, if they lose your accumulator resets.


    If you have any questions or requests then let me know ASAP as I will create a thread this afternoon for Round 5.
     
  2. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    This is the state of play as we go in to the international break:

    upload_2020-11-7_17-9-53.png

    Had @Knight GT and @Teide1 used a draw insurance today they would have protected their accumulators.

    Thanks for everyone taking part. As for duplicates please try you best to not select a team you've had before, twice this has slipped under my radar. In both cases their choices lost anyway, but going forward if you choose a team you have chosen within the previous 16 rounds your choice will automatically lose.

    The current top 3 are:

    Carpster (40)
    KnightGT (36)
    Teide1 (27)
     
  3. Have those of us who chose derby only had 15 choices so need to pick one of the remaining 9 rather than being able to choose anyone?
     
  4. Dreadnought

    Dreadnought MMC 2010/11 Prediction league 3rd 2011/12

    According to the week 21 thread it counted as a non choice so you can only pick one of the 9 you have not currently picked.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.
  5. @Otter - quick question.

    Once we've chosen 16 teams which most of us have now, can you effectively choose the same team every week (including the fact that at some point you need to use the other 8 teams at least once at some point)?

    So for example with approximately 24 games to go I could choose Norwich for 16 of those games if I wanted to with the other 8 being the final 8 teams of the 24.

    Not that I'd want Norwich every week. But basically as long as at some point I use the other 8 teams, the other 16 or so can be teams used multiple times?
     
  6. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    No, once you have chosen 16 teams you can choose any of the teams you haven't used yet plus any team you chose 16 or more rounds ago. To make things easier in the last few days I have been making another list that tells players who they can choose from and listing the teams not yet used by those players, remember all teams must be used by round 46.

    upload_2021-1-1_16-0-23.png

    The teams in red are chosen for the current round, I will update after each round.
     
  7. Ah I get it. There has to be at least 16 rounds between using the same team twice.
     
  8. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    After the current round, I'm going to make minor changes to mitigate against postponements:

    1) If there are fewer than 6 matches surviving in a round due to postponements, the entire round will be scrapped so all choices will be voided.
    2) In case of a late postponement, when choosing your team you can choose another in brackets which is your backup. This will not apply if the primary choice is abandoned having started their match.
    3) If you apply the above you can set neither, one or both for draw insurance.
    4) You don't have to choose a backup
    5) If your primary choice does play it does not stop you from using the backup the following week.
    6) Rearranged fixtures (such as Bournemouth v Millwall match on 12/1/21) are excluded from this competition.

    Update 2:
    Example: Barnsley (Birmingham if postponed)

    Update 3:
    Example 1: Barnsley + draw insurance (Birmingham)
    Example 2: Barnsley (Birmingham + draw insurance)
    Example 3: Barnsley + draw insurance (Birmingham + draw insurance)

    In example 1, if the Barnsley match is postponed you don't lose a draw insurance.
    In example 2, if Barnsley do play then the draw insurance for the backup is not applied and you don't lose it.
    In example 3, you will only be using one draw insurance.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.

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