Points progress 19/20

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Davidmsawyer, Aug 19, 2019.

  1. Sahorn

    Sahorn Reservist

    Liked for the mere fact you’re bothering to put the effort into doing this David, Thankyou.

    A bit soul destroying although the ‘1 point better than after the last game’ comment really cheered me up :D
     
    Davidmsawyer and PowerJugs like this.
  2. Aberdeen

    Aberdeen Academy Graduate

    Pre-empting David's next graphs we are now 14 points worse off than last year (5 v 19) and 5 worse against comparable teams (5 v 10). Better news though is that in the next 6 games last year we only took 2 points. In games against comparable teams last year we took 8 points. If we could repeat that it would narrow the deficit against last year.
     
  3. StuBoy

    StuBoy Forum Cad and Bounder

    Will this be discontinued when we're in the Championship?
     
  4. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    I guess we could compare points to our promotion winning season ...

    Well unless we do a Stoke !!
     
  5. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    As long as I'm alive this thread will continue! Will try to update it tonight...
     
  6. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I was thinking
    (1) Average Pozzo 2nd flight
    (2) Average Watford 2nd flight

    Comparable fixture would have to be dropped for one season.
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  7. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Okay...

    Not a disaster, but not what we wanted...

    The current position is:
    • 14 points worse than this time last year (5 vs 19). This is 2 points worse than after the last game.
    • 5 points worse than the comparable fixtures last year (5 vs 10). This is 1 points better than after the last game.
    • 6 points worse than the '40 point' line (5 vs 11). This is the same as after the last game
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
  8. Caskey

    Caskey Brighton Bloke

    After 11 games last season the 3 bottom teams all went down. Just saying.
     
  9. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    What's the opposite of being Arsenal's 'invincibles'?

    Are we going to be the first team with zero wins all season... the unwinnerballs?

    The unmentionables?
     
  10. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Finally!

    The current position is:
    • 12 points worse than this time last year (8 vs 20). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
    • 5 points worse than the comparable fixtures last year (8 vs 13). This is the same as after the last game
    • 5 points worse than the '40 point' line (8 vs 13). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
    • 3 points worse than the 'adjusted 40 point' line (8 vs 11). This is 1 point better than after the last game.
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
  11. Sahorn

    Sahorn Reservist

    Wow, look at that sexy 45 degree curve, haven’t seen one of those since spring.
     
    PowerJugs, Davidmsawyer and LutherB like this.
  12. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    I thought we weren't bothering about collecting points this season?

    Thought we were just interested in artistic expression.
     
  13. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I think we’re losing on that too
     
    Supertommymooney likes this.
  14. Aberdeen

    Aberdeen Academy Graduate

    Five points less than last year against comparable teams. Three of those in the first game So since then we have "dropped" two points in 11 games. Not the disaster it seems to have been and if we beat Burnley we would be just that one Brighton game behind. Cause for optimism?
     
    Happy bunny likes this.
  15. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    We are still tracking 84/85 - P12 W1 D5 L6 = 8 points

    In 84/85 our 13th fixture was a 3-3 draw at Portman Road, we then won 4 consecutive games and finished the season in the top half on 55 points (42 games).

    Other parallels - we started the season with a cup final defeat hangover and Norwich City were relegated :)
     
  16. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Nice stats!
     
  17. cyaninternetdog

    cyaninternetdog Forum Hippie

    We're gonna finish 5th, believe.
     
  18. Aberdeen

    Aberdeen Academy Graduate

    Pessimist
     
  19. onion8837

    onion8837 Reservist

    IF you believe that norwich and soton are worse than us, that leaves only one more team to catch. West Ham currently look **** and their reserve keeper is in until Jan, so they could get dragged further down in the meantime.

    Not sure who else we should be looking at : Villa ? Brighton ? Newcastle ?

    I think we will be safe. Just.
     
  20. onion8837

    onion8837 Reservist

  21. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    Forgive me - three points for a win was introduced (Jimmy Hill) in 81-82?
     
  22. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Yes it was England.
     
  23. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    Nope 17th

    Against Arsenal
     
  24. Sort of OK

    Sort of OK First Year Pro

    Interesting but some rather strange numbers there, if we have had the 4th hardest start and have the 4th hardest next 5, how can we still have the 7th hardest remainder of the season? Leicester have had the 11th hardest start, the easiest next 5 and 16th easiest remainder. Don't we all play each other??

    Appreciate that it takes league position into account so most of our games will be harder for us than Leicesters are for them but it's a bit odd.
     
  25. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    ffs m8 its a straw to clutch at
     
  26. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    The update you have all been waiting for...

    I have silver lining for us all, we are on target to beat Derby's record lowest points record of 11! A win and one draw is all we need to make sure we don't take that mantle from them, or share it. Too boost our morale I have added this line to the graph until we beat it.

    We are though a bit behind not breaking our own record points low of 24 points. At our current run rate we would only get to 22 points.

    We are 6 points below the run-rate to hit 40 points if you adjust for the difficulty of teams we have played - basically the number of points we are behind 17th place at the moment. To get to 40 points we would need to win one, draw one, and lose one in every three games. That is 8 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses. At the moment 40 points looks like the target, but of course, unless one of the teams outside the relegation zone has a dip in form.

    Basically we need some Mullins Magic.

    The current position is:
    • 12 points worse than this time last year (8 vs 20). This is the same as after the last game.
    • 7 points worse than the comparable fixtures last year (8 vs 15). This is 1 points worse than after the last game.
    • 7 points worse than the '40 point' line (8 vs 15). This is 1 points worse than after the last game.
    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
    CarlosKickaballs and hornmeister like this.
  27. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    The Derby line is a great addition.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  28. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    So what is our lowest ever points total ?
     
  29. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    24 points in 99/00. It was a record at the time. I think I'm right in saying Sunderland then "beat" it - before Derby smashed it.
     
  30. WillisWasTheWorst

    WillisWasTheWorst Its making less grammar mistake's thats important

    Sunderland actually ‘beat’ it, then beat their own record (!) before Derby took the title.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  31. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    We can't even get in the top 3. Losers.
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  32. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    The current position is:
    • 12 points worse than this time last year (9 vs 21). This is the same as after the last game.
    • 9 points worse than the comparable fixtures last year (9 vs 18). This is 2 points worse than after the last game.
    • 8 points worse than the '40 point' line (9 vs 17). This is the same as after the last game

    Some other stats:
    • Our worst start to a top flight ever
    • Our joint second best uplift in points over one game this season!
    • In our last 11 games we've failed to score in 7 of them, I repeat 7.
    • A small grain of hope is that in the 29 games before that we failed to score in 7, and we basically have the same attacking force (plus now Sarr who looks rather nice).
    • In our last 11 games we've had 4 clean sheets.
    • I'm not sure if that's good or bad, but for context it is the same as Man City, 2 better than Liverpool, and Leicester have 7 #impressive
    • Our attack is the problem

    [​IMG][​IMG][​IMG]
     
  33. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    • Our attack is the problem
    Yes, but a much better team performance today.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  34. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Undoubtably. I still hold out hope. We played well today. But we missed every chance we created again. Unless our midfielders pick up their shooting form of last season, we desperately need a new half decent striker in January
     
    WillisWasTheWorst likes this.
  35. LondonOrn

    LondonOrn Reservist

    Another grain of hope is that we are only one point worse off than Leicester were after the same number of games under Pearson in 2014/15. Hopefully the disadvantage that he clearly has a weaker squad to work with, will be cancelled out by the positive that he has learnt from the mistakes that Leicester fans have mentioned that nearly sent the Foxes back down.

    With the same run of form that Leicester put together in 2014/15, we will end up with 40 points - will that be enough? Well, one of the many plus points about Pearson's management is that his teams are hard to beat and don't capitulate whoever they're playing, like ours do too easily when things don't go our way or when we're playing top teams - his Leicester side never lost by more than two goals in 2014/15. Whether we stay up or not, inevitably we're going to lose a fair few, but if the other teams at the bottom lose some games heavily like Bournemouth and Burnley did today and we keep it tight, then we could overtake them on goal difference so we won't need that extra point if there's a danger of us finishing level with one or more candidates for 17th place come the season's end.

    It's still a very tough proposition, and it's a cliche, but we need to look at it one game at a time, only concentrating on the upcoming match. When we are overly fixated on a run of "easy" games and how many points we need to pick up to get in touch with those above or get out of the zone, we are in danger of losing focus on the immediate job at hand. That's what likely happened to us at the close of last season and cost us 7th place, and what happens to teams that look forward to the final whistle with a few minutes to go, before losing focus, panicking and conceding a late equaliser or winner to the oppo.
     
    Davidmsawyer likes this.

Share This Page