November Werewolf - Day Two

Pretty confident that is the wolf's message, unless our back-up seer is for some reason trying to copy the seer's style.

 

Heading off for a bit (although will be pretty early to the funeral so can maybe catch up on my phone).

Will be back with plenty of time to vote, contribute, etc.

 

wait for a second message. Surely we have a back up seer this early in the game.

 

Second message:

Konnichiwa villagers,

No doubt we're all reeling from the nights activities but I'm your new seer.

I've decided not to copy the rhyming style of yesterday as that will only confuse matters but waited a little later to let the EVIL wolf play their hand first.

Based on one of nismans last few posts yesterday I decided to view Cassettis Beard to follow up on his theory.

Cassettis beard is GOOD.

Good luck my fellow Villagers.

 

As I see it

We have Two messages today one naming Burnsy as Evil, one naming CB as good.
We have a second Seer.

Probably going to be lots of theories as to which message is which.
In my mind Nisman (Seer) was the first nursery rhyme message yesterday as he questioned the validity of the second message. Also for some reason I had a strong gut feeling when I read it that it was Nisman

Today first message is a rhyme (but not quite as literate as yesterdays) I feel this is the wolf attempting to say he gave the first message yesterday. I don't think that is true.
The second message has given a some reasoning and produced a GOOD - seems more likely to be the new back up seer
The back up seer copying the rhyming style would have been confusing

I think the wolf has named Burnsy
But in these situations where one person is named good and one evil you almost always know where the voting is going

I still think its the young grimey music people we should be going after

Also what about the solitary vote for noniron yesterday?????

 

I think first message is the wolf. If it was the seer, the wolf would probably name another random player as evil to try to deflect attention from Burnsy. There is one thing I wish the back up seer had done in their message today that would have confirmed it for me. It’s something that is missing from first message and I thought, if it appeared in second message, would confirm that message as the seer’s. It’s not a clue but just info that is useful. Won’t say any more than that.

 

Ok, now we have both messages I can share the 'clue' I noticed.

Yesterday's first message:

When nisman was being killed, he said:

I'm pretty confident then that nisman wrote the first message yesterday saying moog was good.

This means the wolf probably missed that clue and they decided to try and follow the 'seer's' style by writing in nursery rhymes. This is exactly what I wanted to happen and why I decided against discussing this clue earlier.

So, based on the above, I believe moog is good as is CB.

Burnsy has been named as both good and evil by the wolf, but all we can take from that is that he is unlikely to be the alpha. The alpha won't know the beta or traitor (if there is one) so burnsy is not in the clear.

 

Any thoughts @Horace_goes_up_north ?

Very quiet so far today.

 

I'd be pretty confident he isn't! Could be beta or traitor though but I don't believe he has been viewed.

 

I'm going to have to vote before 4pm today

 

Ahh well I have to admit I missed that, but it does back up my view that yesterday’s first message was nisman’s. In which case moog is good. I agree that the second one is likely the seer’s today.

I don’t really want to lynch Burnsy today as I think, although he is not cleared, he is more likely good than evil and, if we are right about the wolf naming him, he is certainly not the alpha.

 

Very flimsy logic but I'm going to have to vote early and I'm going for Cthulhu.

I'm confident the message yesterday from the wolf was the one that included the Stormzy lyric. It was Cthulhu who then started to go through people's ages and suggest it was a younger poster that wrote that message.

There is a chance he may have written it himself and was trying to plant a seed that the wolf was one of the younger players.

As I say, paper thin logic but I have nothing else to go on.

I don't think CB/Moog are evil based on the write-up clue.

If we have a traitor, I think there is a 2/9 chance Burnsy is evil as I don't think he is the alpha.

The rest of us have a 3/9 chance of being evil so I'm ignoring Burnsy for now.

 

Noniron has voted for me.

I can’t see a reason to vote for me.
I am of course the one who is suggesting we go after a younger player

 

Right back at you noniron. You’ve been slinging a lot of mud today.
You fit my wolf demographic, J’accuse

 

I also drew attention again today to the fact you had that solitary vote yesterday noniron. Is that the reason to try to bump me off?