We paid a lot for him, he couldn't get in the team for half the year, has played really well a few times and been average in the rest. He has a lot of promise, but did at the start of the season which is why we paid a record fee for him. Reckon he's worth much more now in a tough CV19 market based on his form last season? My guess is we will loan him out and sell him in a year if he continues to develop and we don't go up.
I think for all of their faults the “family” (as I think we should now refer to the owners) know how to do business , in fact suspect they might be better at managing commodities than managing the actual football. If they have the money and a decent length on a player contract guess it might make sense to loan rather than sell a number of players , gambling on the market improving by January / next summer. Guess a player can’t force a sale no matter how much the manager wants it unless they have a release clause in their contracts , I also guess that most of the crap we see in the transfer rumours is the manager trying to get another move and another commission payment - bastards
Don't know how reliable this is, but seems plausible: Premier League clubs chasing Ismaila Sarr have been told to forget about it unless they’re willing to meet his £40million price tag. Suggestions are that most clubs hoped to pay around £25million. Talks ongoing, but not looking promising. https://twitter.com/TransferChecker/status/1291130583628865542?s=19
Hope this is true, because a season playing for us will only improve his marketability, plus of course we get the benefit of him helping us to bounce straight back. Then if that were to happen you never know he might just want to stay with us longer still, or if not then we would probably get even more than £40m if we sold him at that time.
Hes at his peak value to sell for us. A year in the championship isnt going to inflate his value from his status as dangerous premier league winger, even if he rips it apart scores 20+ for us. We bought him for 27m as a young prospect and I would say his performances in the premier league substantially enhanced his price tag. How teams think we would sell at a loss is inconceivable.
It's really not. I think his performances just about justified the price we paid and with all teams short of operating cash and relegated teams desperate for cash and facing a buyer's market, prices will be low. Potential buyers will know that he won't be playing in the champ so we will need to exit him at the best deal we can get, whatever that turns out to be. I wouldn't be surprised to see us sell for roughly what we paid for him. Unless we can get a bidding war going we would need to look for a loan which gives us hope for a better price next year but doesn't get us any cash now so increases the need to sell others.
For us he is. His status as a just relegated but decent and hyped future star wont be further enhanced regardless of how well he does or we do in division 2. Might hold at this level, might increase in 3 years if we're back up but for at least 18 months. His value ain't increasing.
So why does anyone want to buy him then? £40m is certainly about the most were likely to get now, which is the minimum profit Gino is willing to accept. Short of that it’s not worth selling him, he may as well keep him/ loan him out and try and get more that £40m for him later on down the line. £40m may be his peak value for us right now, but it’s by no means guaranteed to be his peak value for us if we keep him, it might just take longer to realise it. Gino isn’t daft, he’ll weigh up the profit cashing in now vs potential profit longer term if we keep him. It sounds like £40m is the tipping point at which he’ll take the guaranteed profit now over the risk of not realising a higher profit later on.
Also, the current market conditions are out of our control. They might last, they might not. Gino doesn't have any way of controlling whether clubs will pay 30% more in a year or 2 for players. There's a distinct possibility that fees will trend downwards for some years now, after the bubble of the last couple of windows.
God, I hope we keep him. The thought of one of the most exciting talents we've seen in years being flogged to a sh1t-bag of a club like Palace makes me want to weep
Totally agree. Even in this uncertain market. He's got loads of potential to improve further. He's not just fast, he's smart on the pitch. He can run from a deeper or central position. He can play in others, like Deeney re. Liverpool. His finishing has already improved during this season. Crossing still needs work but no reason why that won't improve. In a better team he'll do even better, we often don't find his runs in behind. Of course other clubs want him now but I still think it'll need some huge bid before we sell, given the remaining time on his contract.
I go along with that. I think the club has to play hard ball with some of the players and their agents. We hold all the cards with Sarr. Of course, the Pozzo's have never wanted to keep unhappy players in the past, but I think holding on to him would be key to the decision making of a lot of other players at the club. They would see that as a statement of intent, However, that said, if an offer for £50m or more comes in, then the club would probably think of selling. I make it we probably only need to sell £50m worth of players, to keep us running as an EPL club. That sounds like a lot, but it's not really once you sell 2 or 3 players and include the wages etc. Selling players like Pererya, Gray & Doucoure, wouldn't have a major impact on the side, but would probably raise the £50m, I hope the club make the decision to run us as a Premier League club for one season next year. I think we can afford to do that, as we'll have saleable assets still on the books if we don't go straight back up, which can be used to clear all other debt. Obviously if we don't go up, then we'll do a lot of business in streamlining the club and starting again, but we're not at that stage yet. We've got to give it a real go this season, and if we keep what we have, I have no doubt we'll go straight back up. It worked for Fulham, and in my opinion, we have a much better squad than them, so it can work for us.
Couldn’t agree more. What I hope happens is we cash in on players who’ve expressed a previous desire to leave, rather than any of those who woke up the morning after we got relegated and started making noises that they’d prefer not to be playing in the Championship. Doucouré has made such noises regularly over the past two years. Pereyra clearly wants out and said as much back in June. Nice of him that as we were trying to focus on our relegation fight. Sarr has never previously been quoted as saying he was unhappy or regretted moving to us, so I hope we keep faith in him and he in us, and we can have a great season ahead.
A hell of a lot depends on the coach. If we can get one who can basically hypnotise Sarr and Deulofeu into staying at least til January, then happy days. Maybe that's why they are taking their sweet time to appoint one. I still see them shipping Sarr off to Udinese if they don't get £50m+ though. Which will show how serious they really are.
It's not just what Sarr's individual value would be, it's the value of getting promoted back to the prem, sell all out top talent and that's short term gain, but long term loss.
In normal circumstances transfer fees creep upwards so to sell Sarr for around what we paid for him would be bad business based on what it would appear he could become. But is there an argument that maybe that same money in the current market is effectively higher? Not sure I've explained / asked that very well - is there a chance that players will go for cheaper fees this summer because of Covid 19 and the financial effects on so many clubs? So what we paid for Sarr then is worth more now? I guess only so if we spend it on players.
It’s not just the value Sarr could reach but it’s also the opportunity to obtain that value. What I mean by that is just because we spend £30m on a player there is no guarantee that they come good, like we know Sarr will. Obviously we’re not in a position to spend £30m on a player now for the time being, but that won’t be lost on the owners. Essentially Sarr is an opportunity to make money which we can’t guarantee we’ll get in the future. Once we sell we’re back to the drawing board and any money we spend has no guarantees of paying off. So they won’t want to rush into a sale if they think they can maximise the opportunity by holding off. Every purchase is a gamble, but Sarr was a gamble that paid off in that we know he’s worth more than we paid. But the next time we do the same it will be a roll of the dice.
You absolutely need to separate out the value/potential of the individual to their relative value/potential to us as a club. There are many scenarios that could be played out and the club will need to make a judgement call on their ability to get the most out of their asset based on the level of certainty/risk of each. 1. We dont go up, Sarr performs (20+ goals and assists - all it does it justify the price we paid, c.£30m, but we now probably need to cash in 2. We don't go up, Sarr doesn't perform (10ish goals and assists) - value drops to £20m, starts looking like a bad investment 3. We go up, Sarr performs (20+ goals and assists) - clearly justified our investment and we don't need to sell,£50m 4. We go up, Sarr doesn't perform (10ish goals and assists) - jury still out on whether he meets his potential c. £30m Other option is we take a gamble on getting back up without him whilst holding onto the asset 5. Sarr performs in higher league, we don't go up - justified his potential but now we need to sell £40m 6. Sarr performs in higher league, we go back up - justified potential and we don't need to sell £50m+ 7. Sarr doesn't perform in higher league, we go back up - potential still higher than when we bought him and we don't need to sell £40m 8. Sarr doesn't perform in higher league, we go up - we basically start again, c. £35m - £40m Club needs to weigh up how likely each is relative to the value of having/not having him in the squad next season and the money on the table. To me, £40m or else a loan feels like the best balance overall.
Ake went for £41m. That’s set the benchmark for any sales as far as I can see. Sarr is nowhere near his peak value for us.
Should also be noted that Liverpool were told Norwich wanted £20m for Jamal Lewis - so Liverpool have played their usual game and bid half of that, angering Norwich. It’s ok to bid whatever you want for a player. But the tactic is obviously to unsettle the players relationship with his current club so they feel obliged to sell cheaper. Yes, we may want between £40m-£50m for Sarr but Liverpool will never offer that. They will start at £25m and then hope it’s enough pressure to upset the player - and then another few million and some vague add ons will be offered - the fact Sarr shares an agent with Mane easily gives them a pipeline to the player that we can do little about too. I think the likes of Wolves, Palace, Everton etc are easily dealt with - they won’t pay what we want and I doubt the player would kick off to join any of them in any case. I expect he’d really want to go to Liverpool though. If they make a formal offer, I think it will become a case of ‘when’ he leaves, rather than ‘if’.
I agree, however the difference is, we do have Gino. As has been proven multiple times, he doesn’t take well when trying to be bullied. He will have no hesitation in complaining about illegal tapping up etc and will drag whoever he can into a long drawn out court process. Every club knows this. He will dig for anything that will result in us getting a few extra mil. So clubs know they have to be careful and respect us. Relegation hasn’t changed the price. Gino has set the price, it’s £40mil+ for Sarr. Any team that bids less than that, will find themselves on the wrong end of the stick. As frustrating as Gino is, one thing that I do admire, is that he has turned Watford into a club that doesn’t get bullied. Years ago clubs would undercut us and we would roll over, take it and accept it because we needed the money. Times have changed, we don’t need the money, yet. Next season, if we’re not back in the Prem, then we will. Until then though, we have the upper hand. Players on long term contracts, keeping them helps us get back to the Prem. So the only way we sell is if the price is right. I’ve said before many times, Man City have set the benchmark in buying Ake for £41mil. Sarr is worth more than that. Doucoure is in the same calibre as Ake so worth around that, although I’m sure we would accept £30mil for him. Can’t see us accepting less unless 1-2 players from the buying club are thrown in. The ball is in our court and so if the other clubs want to play ball then it’s on our terms.
I agree those are the scenarios, and it’s always a question of weighing up risk vs reward. £40m is Gino’s sweet spot where by it’s enough profit to justify selling him against the risk that he ends up being worth less through serious injury or just not reaching his potential. Anything less and it’s not really worth it, the risk remains that they don’t recoup their outlay, but the profit would be so minimal it’s worth taking that risk. I hope it’s simply the case that it’s £40m or he goes nowhere, take it or leave it.
It obviously would be, but you can't assume that having Sarr or not having Sarr will be the difference between promotion or not. Doing so is an extra layer of risk.
Seeing our best young talent linked with clubs the size of Palace is obviously flattering and just shows how far we've come as a club. I'm sure Palace will move onto bigger fish but if Sarr does end up there I'm sure he will go with the blessing of all Watford fans. In fact Palace may become a kind of 'second club' for many of us!
