Is it our turn to go down?

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Manatleisure, Aug 9, 2018.

  1. PotGuy

    PotGuy Forum Fetishist

    Rodwell was a free agent, we took him on trial and didn't want him

    What does that have to do with doucoure? You literally have pulled that connection from your bumhole.

    We were looking for cheap cover in midfield because we still have injuries there and don't want to take on a full signing, as they will recover and then we have too many players. Exactly like that guy from Sunderland lady year.

    We couldn't find anyone to come on loan, so we will deal with it until the players aren't injured anymore.

    It is completely logical
     
  2. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    A fair post. But what frustrates me is they should not be extending the contracts of garbage like Britos, Prodl and Holebas. Let them go. Free up wages. Back the scouting model to identify upgrades.

    We have had significant player sales. It is not feasible we don’t have the resource to fund Dawson at the level you mention above, irrespective of the utter garbage floating around on 10-30k per week.
     
  3. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Well, when you look at the wage bills across the league over the past few years we've always been lower mid-table level spenders. If the money isn't there, it isn't there.
     
  4. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    This, alongside the medical debacle, is really where the most legitimate criticism of the owners lies.The new deal for Holebas (3 years I think) was completely inexplicable. Britos 1 year is probably not making much impact on the budget, especially when looking at new signings on 3/4 year deals. And, in my opinion, it's unfair to tag Prodl as garbage. He's younger than the other two and perfectly capable and willing backup for that position. You could argue keeping him was prudent rather than without any merit at all.

    But I suspect it's the invisible players who are having the biggest impact.
     
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  5. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    How do you get rid of deadweight that no one wants to buy?
     
  6. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Really? We only see a snapshot publicly but there have been loads of loans out which have come to nothing. Presumably someone somewhere is crunching the numbers and has deciding cutting our losses completely and paying them off isn't worthwhile. So it has to be a transfer. Given Gino can't physically force another club to take someone off our hands I don't see what more can be done. If we're holding out for unrealistic prices then yeah, criticism would be justified.
     
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  7. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    Fine, but then it is legitimate again to criticise the recruitment system, isn’t it - we shouldn’t have bought them in the first place if there was no chance of moving them on.
     
  8. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    exactly. which is why perhaps this year the club have done the right thing by not panic buying similar types of players?
     
  9. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I’m sure they weren’t bought as deadwood but sadly that’s what they ended up as. Every club has them and because they earning so much money it is difficult to move them on. Holebas and Zeegelar for instance are hugely unlikely to get paid anywhere near what they currently get anywhere else so you have to hope the desire to play football outweighs the money. The reason for Holebas extension was to make sure that we didn’t leave ourselves short at left back but a 1 year, possibly 2 at most, extension would have made more sense. Britos again as cover in case we couldn’t get who we wanted.
    I think PotGuy has nailed it in his posts
     
  10. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Plus, Luke Dowling was relieved of his duties after the end of last summer's transfer window. He was an integral part of our recruitment team and clearly copped some of the blame for too high a failure rate.

    There's been a clear commitment to change.
     
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  11. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Which is why the fact we've not bought this week may not be the worst outcome. It also explains all the "try before we buy" loans the Pozzo's currently favour.

    Sometimes a no deal really is better than a bad deal!
     
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  12. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    I’m not sure anyone is disagreeing with this. The concern is that specific areas of weakness, which have been evident for a while, have not been addressed. They shouldn’t be “panic buys”. Gino et al ought to have been aware of the weaknesses and making plans to deal with them for several months, and if that meant finding a way to get rid of the deadweight to afford it, then so be it (are you seriously suggesting that no club anywhere would take them?). We’re often told about the supposed strength of the Pozzo scouting network, so surely this should have been feasible.

    It is plausible, in respect of the need for a striker, that we are waiting on Penaranda and Hernandez and just ticking over this season, as someone suggested on another thread. If so, I guess you could call that a plan to deal with a clear weakness. But it is a risky one, especially this season.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
  13. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    fine then lets talk about the weaknesses:

    central defence: we are limited beyond our first three players Cathcart, kabasele and prodl. However last season we barely had Cathcart. I would argue him and kabasele are our best centre backs, prodl is a decent backup. who could we really have signed that is a) better than Cathcart or kabasele or b) happy to sit on a bench behind those two and wait for injuries to get in the team and c) is affordable. there is no one this market that I can think of who premier league clubs have signed that we could afford or would want to come to fit those criteria. So we signed Wilmot (young and talented) and Navarro (young and talented).

    centre forwards: many argue this is our weakest area of the pitch. the club kept gray and now have a fit deeney. anyone who saw him against sampdoria says he looks a vastly different player. a fit troy is a starter in our team. we then have gray and okaka, one of whom is a club record signing and on big bucks the other of whom no-one wanted to buy because of an injury. very few clubs in the premier league have more than 3 or 4 strikers in their squad. add success and penaranda to what we have got and we have a long striking line up. im a firm believer that you don't buy players until you have the space for them. we cannot afford to have players like gray sat in the reserves of 75k+ a week.
     
  14. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    OK. Well, as your username suggests, you take a more positive view. I hope you’re right. Personally, I was really pleased at the signing of Gray last year so I hope it comes right for him too. But there is undoubtedly risk there when you consider how few goals the back-up strikers have scored, and in light of our injury record. I just think Gino is seriously gambling this season.
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2018
  15. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    Not sure whether we will go down. What I do know, is we always do better when we have been written off and expectation is low.
     
  16. If you recall the interview Gino gave on the fiscal site I think at the end of year 1, he was very clear that pozzo clubs never broke their operating budget.

    Income like the richy money is exceptional income, it doesn’t adjust a business budget (which in football will need to have a 3-5 year forward projection).

    It will come onto the P&L of this FY and be absorbed.

    I’m sure there is budget for extra players, but I doubt there is budget to pay £30m and £80k a week or whatever Alcacer et al are claimed to be earning.

    Yes I’m disappointed we didn’t sign the striker we badly need, but for me the number one priority must always be operating within a budget so we never again end up in the mess of the 00s.

    The higher up the football pyramid the fewer players there are that will improve the team and the more expensive they are.

    Premier years 1 & 2 we assembled the team by buying value for money experienced players who could hit the ground running.

    In the last 18 months you can see a visible trend of now buying and assembling a pool of prospects and younger players: Chalobah, Hughes, Deulofeu (only 23) Wilmot, Penaranda, Success, Chuco, Estupinan, Quina... whatever each of us might do differently if it were our train set, I cannot see the pozzos breaking their model and spending £30m, £40m or whatever on a star player.... because in 25 years they never have.

    And no, don’t be so bloody stupid of course we are not going down.
     
  17. Stuey

    Stuey Reservist

    4th season we have been written off as relegation fodder. 4th season in the Prem. Says something about these so called experts.
     
  18. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    and if we are, we won't.
     
  19. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    Palace had a good window. Kept Zaha and signed a quality German international on a free transfer.
     
  20. sydney_horn

    sydney_horn Squad Player

    Top post. I am glad the Pozzo's are business orientated first and foremost.

    I would hate Watford to become the plaything of a rich oligarch who just walks away once they become bored and leave us in the sh1t.

    We are operating within our means and have a long term future even if the Pozzos move on thanks to their structure and financial discipline.
     
  21. Heidar

    Heidar Squad Player

    Paul Merson says Amrabat was our best player last season. Says everything you need to know!
     
  22. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    A "decent" squad isn't good enough to stay up. Hopefully you mean an "excellent strong squad" ?
    We didn't waste our money on a forward who will do nothing all season, true. We already have 3 of those. Sadly we didn't spend money on a striker who WOULD do something this season and make a difference to our chances.
     
  23. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Send them to Udinese
     
  24. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    You're not one of the 800 accountants on here are you ? If we budgeted to sell Richie for £50m and spend half of that on signings then correct, we stick to the budget. If as you say it was "exceptional income" then absolutely you do deviate from the budget as you have more to spend than you had thought when you wrote the budget. Budgets are guidelines. If the situation changes, you don't just stick to a budget written in the past, you change too.
     
  25. Burnsy

    Burnsy First Team

    Final post for a couple of weeks...

    Firstly, I’ve enjoyed ‘debating’ with everyone over the last couple of days as regards to transfers, seasons prospects etc - certainly shows we are all passionate about th club one way or another! I certainly don’t hold it against anyone who has the opposing view to myself. Sad the club couldn’t buy me a CF or a CB as a wedding present but c’est la vie!

    The season starts tomorrow and I’ll be behind Javi and the boys as much as anyone, Alcacér or Okaka, Varane or Mariappa. If anyone believes I’ve been overly negative these past few months about lack of required transfers or Gracia staying or whatever, you have my apologies! Hopefully you read enough of my input to know it isn’t always that way, honest!

    But for now, I must finish my pint, go and find my bloody wife and stop her spending in the departure lounge and get out of here for our honeymoon! Seychelles will certainly beat Watford High Street!

    Here’s to having 6 points on my return!

    GRACIA OUT!!!...

    ...only joking. COYH!!!
     
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  26. Oscar calling

    Oscar calling Squad Player

    We are reportedly paying a combined wage of £170k per week on Deeney and Gray, neither of whom are good enough.

    To upgrade the strike force and keep within a reasonable budget in terms of both transfer fees and wages we would have needed to get rid of one or both of our strikers. Deeney's value has dropped dramatically, because who is now going to offer a 30 year old a long term contract on £100k? There would also be limited interest from Championship clubs for Gray due to his wage level and the effect on FFP. If we could have sold both, the combined fee we could have got would be £20m at most, which isn't enough to buy one decent goalscorer, let alone two.

    I believe that is the reason it was decided we have no option but to stick with those two and hope we have enough to stumble over the line. Playing with one striker also doesn't help.
     
  27. No not an accountant. A former business director who has spent half his life around accountants before reassessing work-life balance at 40 and choosing a quiet life in the West Country.

    “I have a pocket full of money so I can go spend it” is why clubs like Sunderland, Portsmouth etc are where they are.

    If we buy player x for £30m and pay him £4m a year for 5 years, those costs (should) get written into an operating budget for FY18/19, 19/20, 20/21 etc etc. Now do the same for every player. Now do the same for staff costs. And building and land costs etc etc. Don’t forget to include the cost of debt, it’s often the torpedo which sinks failing business.

    Now overlay our income, which will consist of the guaranteed balance of the existing tv deal, forecast of game day revenue, sponsorship, etc

    None of us know what any of that looks like, Scott D isn’t going to tweet it any day soon, but the profile of income, expenditure, cliff edge, and appetite for risk is the basis of budgets, not cash in the pocket.
     
  28. The undeniable truth

    The undeniable truth First Team Captain

    ?? Of course they will have done that. They would be negligent if they hadn't. I'm not sure what your point is. Your original point was you have a budget operating cost, stick to it even if you get exceptional windfall of £50m. That suggests it wasn't in the budget (though what you're describing sounds more like a business plan rather than a budget) which presumably balanced so should mean more funds than originally budgeted are available to spend now to retain our status in the prem.

    Business planning for a club like ours must be a nightmare. Getting the balance right between strengthening the squad and being able to cut future costs when needed is a tough call. I wonder if "relegation clauses" may well put us at a disadvantage as other clubs may be able to dispense with them.
     
  29. hornet boy

    hornet boy Academy Graduate

    If I recall correctly the most recently agreed TV deal was actually less than the previous one, so perhaps the tide is turning.

    Maybe Gino is being cautious as the transfer fees may be paid now, but high wages on long contracts would need to be funded from the new deal.
     
  30. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    I think it was less, but then might have ended up slightly more when the final package was sold.

    Either way it’s certainly platued compared the last few deals, I can’t see how it’s sustainable for Sky and BT to have to pay much more than they currently are going forward. You therefore have to hope that player wages will also settle down and not keep growing exponentially out of hand, as if they do sooner or later we definitely will be relegated.
     
  31. Since63

    Since63 Squad Player

    Of course, we don't know the structure of the extended contracts. It is possible the players concerned took a wage reduction for the security, knowing it's still likely to be higher than they'll get in a lot of other countries. A bit of a safety net approach by the club in case the upgrades we were willing to consider did not become available.
    Some of the approaches for CMs were transparently so stop-gap in their nature that the players concerned were not interested. Why would Arter swap being a back up at Muff for being the same with us?
     
  32. cpm82

    cpm82 Academy Graduate


    Who was the Liverpool striker again? Mind has gone blank.. was it Ronny?
     
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  33. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Rosenthal
     
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  34. Optimistichornet

    Optimistichornet Penguin Assassin

    Brighton could go down. Looked terrible.
     
  35. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Palace lost, what, their first 7? without scoring a goal last season.

    There are lots of twists ahead.

    3 points banked but we need another 35 odd.
     
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