Final Points Total

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Otter, Mar 23, 2021.

  1. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    We have reached 75 with 8 to play and in decent form. Looking back at our previous highest points tallies (adjusting for 3 points for a win prior to 81/82 season), these are our best 10 seasons:

    1. 77/78: 101, Division 4 champions (was 71 points as 2pts per win)
    2. 68/69: 91, Division 3 champions (was 64 points as 2pts per win)
    3. 14/15: 89, Championship 2nd place
    4. 97/98: 88, Division 2 champions
    5. 81/82: 87.6, Division 2 runner up (was 80 points in 42 matches, adjusted to 46 PPG)
    6. 78/79: 84, Division 3 runner up (was 60 points as 2pts per win)
    7. 05/06: 81, Championship 3rd place, play off winners
    8. 88/89: 78, Division 2, 4th place, lost play offs
    9. 98/99: 77, Division 1, 5th place, play off winners
    10. 12/13: 77, Championship, 3rd place, lost play offs.
    Obviously we can't beat our best as 99 is the most we can reach, although we can beat our actual best without adjustments, what position do you think we will finish in our all time best tallies?

    To equal 9th, two draws.
    To equal 8th, one win/3 draws
    To equal 7th, two wins
    To equal 6th, three wins
    To equal 4th, four wins and a draw
    To equal 3rd, four wins and two draws
    To equal 2nd, five wins and a draw
    Outright 2nd best, six wins or five wins and two draws.

    Personally speaking, I think that with our best team available we can get to 93 points.
     
  2. SkylaRose

    SkylaRose Reservist

    Suspensions, injuries and the return of Captain Fantastic aside - we are more than capable of eclipsing our 14/15 finish. That is a massive task in itself though. However, many of said we do have the best side in the division when we play to our strengths. Nobody this season has thrashed us. We only lost to Swansea by one goal, and we should of beaten "we score for fun" brentford. Norwich couldn't handle us either. Realistically though, anything over 85 points will see us up I feel. Nine games doesn't sound like much but it seems like a lifetime away for fans and players' who are aiming for one real goal.
     
  3. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Good research. I would be extremely disappointed not to beat our 6th place record. If we do, going by your table, it's produced a promotion every time. This is comforting news.
     
  4. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    I'm backing us for 97: 7 wins, 1 draw. The squad are playing very well right now and the team spirit has kicked in at the best possible time (when others are flagging due to a long season).
     
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  5. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    On the predictor thing I had us to get 90 points so sticking with that.

    What is the highest number of points to not win the league?
     
  6. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I had us 91 points on the predictor, although I think it will be anything between that and 87.
     
  7. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    I can see us possibly getting at least 5 wins and possibly not losing any of the other games at all, but lets say we do lose 2 of those games and draw 1 that would still give us 91 points, but if we manage to draw all 3 or even win 1 of those games and still lose 2 we would still get as many as 93, and I reckon either of those point totals could well be enough for automatic promotion.
     
  8. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I can't see either Brentford or Swansea getting 7 more wins each out of the 9 matches they both have. I think 88 or 89 points will be enough for second place, however it doesn't disguise the fact that we must get a win v Wednesday.
     
    Bubble likes this.
  9. Harrybassetthater

    Harrybassetthater Academy Graduate

    My prediction is 5 wins and 4 draws giving us 91 points which will be enough for 2nd place especially with our goal difference .
     
  10. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    That is a bit difficult as we only have EIGHT games left ;)
     
  11. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    I’m kind of sick of going round in circles thinking about it and all the different permutations (thanks international break) but I reckon we almost need to break the 8 games down in to two lots of four. Boro and Reading won’t be easy, but in theory Luton (I think the Derby aspect is completely nullified without fans) and Wednesday will be.

    If we can push ourselves to the limit in these games to scrape as many (hopefully all wins) as possible, then we’ll be pretty much home and hosed with those final four harder games to go.

    3 wins and a draw in those first 4 puts us on 85, leaving us needing probably only 5 max from those final 4.
     
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  12. Leighton Buzzer

    Leighton Buzzer Reservist

    I have a bit of a feeling that both Swansea, and Brentford will be more scared of us than we are of them.
    The way we are playing, both games are winnable, but of course it is very important to win the games which on paper, look easier.
    Norwich is a different matter, we are capable of winning but it will obviously not be easy.
     
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  13. Chiswell

    Chiswell Academy Graduate

    Another way to look at this is the old maxim of a win at home and a draw away is promotion form.
    On our pitch and with our home form, 4 wins at home is a real possibility. Then, say we grind out 4 draws away which I would settle for right now as I think those fixtures will all be pretty tough. So, 4 wins and 4 draws is 16 points and a total of 91. Almost certainly enough to get second place as 4 wins at home says we beat Swansea and 4 draws away says we don't lose to Brentford.
     
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  14. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    I think 90 points will secure second place, so 4 wins, 3 draws and a defeat would suffice. Being Watford we will probably achieve the target with some, random, unexpected results....
     
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  15. Supertommymooney

    Supertommymooney Reservist

    I think at least 75.

    Any more than that would be even better.
     
  16. Harrybassetthater

    Harrybassetthater Academy Graduate

    Senior moment. Meant to say 4 wins and 4 draws but the predicted points total would still be 91 points.
     
    The Voice of Reason likes this.
  17. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    The bizarre thing is we could win all of our remaining games and still not be champions with 99 points.
     
    wfc4ever likes this.
  18. Bubble

    Bubble Wise Oracle

    I said when we had 11 games left we had to win 8 of them to likely go up in 2nd place.

    On track for 5 of the last 8.
     
  19. miserableoldgit

    miserableoldgit Reservist

    A lot of people getting carried away on here

    The same people who wanted to sack the manager / fire half the team are now taking 90 points as a given

    I was mid 80's at Xmas and see no reason to be more optimistic

    We have had a great run after a bad one - who is to say what Watford the next 8 games will see
    I see 3 or 4 losses - Norwich / Brentford Luton and one we never saw coming and a similar number of wins
     
    PowerJugs likes this.
  20. Bubble

    Bubble Wise Oracle

    Your name is very befitting.

    Let's not forget, those that wanted Xisco sacked (I wasn't one of them BUT I definitely thought he was out of his depth) had a fair point as the performances, lack of direction and then constant desire to play players out of position (anyone playing Will Hughes on the wing in a 4-4-2 needs their head examined) was very concerning! Fair's fair, he switched the system to 4-3-3 and played Hughes in his best position BUT if Deeney wasn't injured would he have been dropped for JP? I doubt it. He has got lucky, but he's made it work for him.

    Anyway, back on topic, I think amassing only another 9-10 points from a possible 24 would be a disaster. Swansea and Brentford won't fancy playing us at the moment so don't know why you're so worried about them!? Sh*t Town will get a schooling, no worries, there are levels.
     
  21. brumhorn

    brumhorn First Year Pro

    Pointless exercise, but doing the points predictor I inputted all of the results that you'd "expect" (in the loosest terms) to see - draw against a rival, win against lesser opposition and a loss against a stronger team.

    As we all know it won't go like this, so all this really does is show strength of schedule (to borrow a term from american sports). It also doesn't represent teams who are in bad form (for example Swansea, who with their schedule I have down as not losing another game, which is unlikely to happen for anyone, let alone a team not playing their best).

    Anyway, here's the results (GD not properly estimated, all scores 1-0, 1-1):

    upload_2021-3-25_12-42-35.png

    So based on who they play, Swansea should do it. I'd say though that 5/6 wins would put us over the edge, putting us in at 2/3 on the list from the OP
     
  22. davisp2

    davisp2 Reservist

    Assuming we do ok with injuries I think we will get 5 wins, 2 draws and a defeat so 92 points which will be more than enough.
     
  23. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    I'm much the same, to me this looks like a great run of form against mostly awful sides, even if we are also playing much better. In that run we lost to Bournemouth, and had real scares at home against Derby and Forest. The win at Cardiff was wholly down to an absolute howler from the keeper. Performances are chalk and cheese, but we've also had a slice of luck.

    Xisco is doing a fine job but these last 8 fixtures are pretty grim. I see 3 losses in there even at our improved levels. Talk of remaining unbeaten or rivalling Norwich is very premature and a huge ask of the team. Brentford have what will end up a 35 goal striker and Swansea seem to have even easier fixtures than we just did. Their form can switch just like ours did and still could.

    We have a good shot at second but lets not get overconfident. It's going to be incredibly close.
     
  24. Cassetti's Beard

    Cassetti's Beard First Team

    99 points, no bother.
     
  25. Since63

    Since63 Reservist

    Who've you got us winning only 2 matches against? Obviously Wednesday, but then that means you've put us down as only beating Millwall or L*t*n after that. To be honest, if we can only get 12 points from our last 8 games, then we definitely won't deserve an automatic place.
     
    UEA_Hornet, wfc4ever and jackwfc like this.
  26. Discos 442 with chuckle brothers up top and Hughes on the wing wouldn't make 80 points from where we are now

    Discos 433 is finishing well over 90
     
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  27. miserableoldgit

    miserableoldgit Reservist

    Norwich will need a win to secure the title
    Luton have a grudge the size of beached tanker in the Suez
    The game will be Brentford i think - I am less worried about Swansea

    I think 88 does it and 87 probably will
     
  28. brumhorn

    brumhorn First Year Pro

    I had us drawing up the road, just reflecting that it's a difficult trip and not a given (although easier without fans). Takes us to 89 with a win as I'm sure you can work out.

    Obviously beating a rival produces that points swing (a real 6 pointer etc. etc.), but again I know this isn't anything new
     
  29. Siohmy

    Siohmy Reservist

    Even though they may be struggling for form, Brentford’s and Swansea’s last game showed that you don’t always get the results your football deserves. Brentford really should have beaten Forest with the chances they had and Forest scored with their only shot on target.

    No matter how well you are playing you are always at risk of being picked off because you left your shooting boots at home or the other team did a good defensive number on you or simply they were better on the day. It’s not like we’re Man City!

    I would like to think 5 wins, a draw and even 2 defeats will be enough but that maybe no good if those two defeats are against the two above.

    Someone did post elsewhere, which some disputed, but it can often be far tougher to get across the line when out in front then it is to chase down. Mindsets can change when you feel a draw would be a good result going into some games for example.

    Hopefully Xisco will not let the tempo drop and go for the wins.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  30. Johnny Todd Sings

    Johnny Todd Sings First Year Pro

    Agreed. There is too much over-confidence on here. I hope the team are more grounded. A draw against Wednesday will fill this place with despair again. Obviously I'd rather be in our position than that of Swansea or Brentford but all sorts of things can happen between now and the end of the season,
     
    miserableoldgit likes this.
  31. a19tgg

    a19tgg Squad Player

    Don’t you regularly pull me up for saying pretty much this?

    Edit: Sorry, I think I’m confusing you with WatfordTalk.
     
  32. YellowKicks

    YellowKicks Squad Player

    Haha yep definitely not me!
     
  33. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Another great round of results. For automatic promotion we need 16 points from the last 7 matches: 5 wins and a draw! Hopefully this is done and dusted before the final two games.

    Norwich only need 10 points from their last 7 matches, I actually think that one more win for them may be enough as I can't see either Swansea or Brentford reaching 87 on current form.

    In a mirror of the 97/98 season, where we achieved promotion at Ashton Gate and then pipped Bristol City to the title on the last day, it would be great if we can achieve promotion at Carrow Road and then take the title on the last day.
     
  34. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    Be positive!
     
  35. Forgive me if I'm being a bit dense, but how can we achieve 16 points before the final 2 games?
     

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