Covid-19 Virus

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by Hornet4ever, Jan 30, 2020.

  1. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    Not necessarily for a number of reasons. China only confirmed human to human transmission was possible on 21st January, prior to that it wouldn’t really have been on anyone’s radar not even the WHO. If everyone believed it was only transmittable from animals to humans then nobody outside or China would’ve been worried, that would represent virtually zero threat to us. Yet in reality it was spreading like wild fire in China at the latest from December onwards. We had no travel bans from China until mid February yet the Xmas New year period is when people move around the globe in huge numbers. So in the UK in January or even December would a death from something that seemed like pneumonia in an elderly or already ill patient have been picked up?
     
  2. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    I get your point, but this disease is fairly easy to transmit, if a few people up and down the country were dying of pneumonia in December/January it wouldn't make news, but since lots of people are dying of it now with an infection incubation period of 5-14 days, this would have been happening sooner, it would have been queried if a large number died of the same respiratory infection in the same area in a short amount of time.
     
  3. Robert Peel

    Robert Peel Reservist

    Reading some of the stuff here about it being here earlier makes you wonder. Mid-Feb I had all the symptoms in one go (fever, cough, chest quite tight, low energy), which lasted about 5 days. I work in London and there were loads of people off in my office at the same time. Covid-19 or a very similar virus?
     
  4. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    A quick google and apparently 30,000 people die in the U.K. of pneumonia every year, which is about 80 per day and roughly the amount of deaths were getting from CV per day at the moment. 5/10/20 extra deaths per day from ‘pneumonia’ spread across the whole country in January would’ve surely gone unnoticed for a little while?
     
  5. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Fair point again as I don't know the figures. I am a little sceptical however that lots of people are saying that they had symptoms in January, some may have, some may not have. I think once research, tests on current cases and tests on antibodies increase to the point that it is clear we are past the worst as in there is intrinsic herd immunity and the worst possible cases of people with underlying conditions have passed then we would see a relaxation of the current shutdown.
     
  6. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    Just reading more about Pneumonia which might be common knowledge but I didn’t realise it anyway, is that the most common trigger is flu. So a lot more people die from getting flu and then getting pneumonia, so flu is a lot more dangerous than the stats suggest on its own, but the cause of death is technically pneumonia if that’s what ends up killing you. Apparently 45,000 people die from sepsis every year as well, which again apparently is quite common for people with pneumonia to get. So maybe the stats on Flu are a little misleading as by the sounds of it getting it carries a much greater risk than just looking at who dies from it directly.
     
  7. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    The only counter-argument is, assuming the Chinese account is completely truthful, what first raised their medics' suspicions was the form of pneumonia the infected were suffering from did not respond to the normal treatments.

    I suppose it depends how we treat people though. Folk in old people's homes pretty much short-circuit the death certification system as long as they've seen their GP in the last fortnight. Which of course most of them have. The best guess of what killed them goes down on the record and the world keeps turning. So it would likely need a batch of younger victims to get hospitalised, end up in ICUs and then curious enough (and not run completely ragged) consultants to notice the inconsistencies and start investigating further. I love the NHS but wonder if it has the capacity to do that in these straightened times? That said, even if we didn't, surely a modern heath service somewhere else would have done it sooner?
     
  8. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    I did think that because that’s what led to the government there trying to silence some of the Doctors who tried to raise the alarm about a series of mysterious pneumonia cases.

    That said Wuhan was the epicentre of the entire outbreak so they would’ve had the largest number of cases pilling up to cause them to spot it in the first place. A few cases dotted randomly around the country here probably wouldn’t have been anywhere near enough to raise that level of suspicion.
     
  9. They are planning for a massive increase in hospital admissions, as you'd expect, and a temp drop in the nurse patient ratio from their best practice, in order to help cope.
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020 at 5:55 PM
  10. I think they are trying to heighten awareness without creating a massive national panic. I personally think a little more panic would be a good thing.
     
    Arakel likes this.
  11. Burnsy

    Burnsy Squad Player

    I agree.

    The caveat to that however is I think a collective ‘panic’ for the nation might be a good thing just to hammer home the social distancing/isolation factors needed. But we would need to be careful of that panic filtering to some individuals who struggle with mental health issues who will already be suffering hugely with the crisis.
     
    cyaninternetdog and Arakel like this.
  12. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    One thing some of the videos released recently have been emphasising is that "mild" doesn't mean you're basically not sick. It means you're not hospitalized. Even the "mild" cases tend to be really, really unpleasant.

    I found this video quite useful:

     
    Maninblack likes this.
  13. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Agreed; my only minor nitpick would be to say "fear" rather than "panic" (including fear for others, which is highly important). But like I said...minor nitpick.

    Fear has an important evolutionary purpose: to cause us to protect ourselves.
     
  14. Thanks. That has just scared the **** out of me.......
     
  15. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Sorry, mate. Wasn't my intention to add more stress to your plate.

    Rooting for you and Mrs. TuT right now.
     
    The undeniable truth likes this.
  16. Maninblack

    Maninblack Reservist

    Very sobering. Thank you for sharing.
     
  17. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Government has a solution for that. It’s just added off licences to the list of essential businesses!
     
    Maninblack, Arakel and Filbert like this.
  18. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    Bloke on the BBC just said Imperial college now reckon we should stay within the NHS’s tolerance and peak of cases in two/three weeks
     
  19. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Provided people stick to the restrictions I assume.
     
  20. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    Is this annoying anyone else or just me - people constantly referring to quarantine/being in quarantine, when they aren’t in quarantine they’re just staying home like everyone else who hasn’t yet had or got the virus.
     
  21. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

  22. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Quote in here along the same lines from Chris Whitty too:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52035615

    And while I know the worst is yet to come, this puts some of the current media hysteria into context:

     
  23. Hornet4ever

    Hornet4ever WFC Forums Last Man Standing Winner 2018/2019

    This made me laugh. Got this email from Rightmove the property portal today. I think it's an early April Fools.

    How to look after yourself when working from home
    Rightmove has teamed up with Campaign Against Living Miserably (CALM) to offer some advice on mental well-being for people at home in lockdown.
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  24. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    Right just finished work for the night.

    Remember that social media is a bit of a negative echo chamber. The kindness I have seen from fellow NHS workers and members of the public FAR outweighs the occasional little ***** who are hoarding, stealing NHS supplies ( really guys?) and not listening to common sense advice.

    Here is my take. We are going to get a “surge” of cases in the next week or so. Reach peak. Stay around that level. Just about cope resource wise, we have just about enough ventilators. Then mass testing will come in. We will find many have had it without symptoms. We gradually relax these restrictions

    If you want my advice. See the next 3-4 weeks out strictly then it will improve. But do it strictly please - I know it’s boring.

    sorry not posting more at the moment, there are plenty of NHS people on here, I know a few, you’re all good people
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020 at 10:21 PM
  25. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    I’ve literally heard today of people stealing masks and paracetamol from wards for old people in my trust. Where do you think you and your elderly relatives will go when you are seriously ill?

    what is wrong with you?

    we need those masks to treat you and your parents you ******* idiots.

    but again in WW2 we had spivs and profiteers. I will personally take pleasure in reviewing cctv cameras when this is over and take the time to make sure you go to prison you utter ... I’m not going to say anymore sorry been a long day
     
  26. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    My greatest ire is for those who think we can cope as a society without the NHS.

    there were people here on this forum who thought we should all have private healthcare.

    You are just as wrong now as you were then. And I hope you’ve learnt from this that life is more important than money. When my friends and colleagues die for you, as they will, all I’m saying is think again. Money is not that important
     
  27. Moose

    Moose First Team Captain

    That’s the NHS’s new tolerance, highly upscaled with the public at home?

    That’s good news and if the lockdown holds, within a month or shortly after the position could look quite different. Restrictions could be relaxed if contact tracing is in place.

    But it’s fragile and the ability to cope may atrophy if people don’t keep their distance and the NHS staff attrition rate is too high.
     
  28. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    The surge is coming within the next week. That is what we are planning for. Forget 2-3 weeks
     
  29. Filbert

    Filbert Leicester supporting bloke

    A big, sloppy kiss to you and all your colleagues. Or an elbow bump, just in case like.
     
    The PozzMan, sydney_horn and Cthulhu like this.
  30. Worzel Wetherspoon/Thundercat is now saying that they are not going to pay rents or ANY of their suppliers.

    What a piece of work. I hope people remember when this is over.

    (Note to Hooter. The bloke is a ****. Just because he is a brexit' gobshyte doesn't make him not a ****)
     
    wfcwarehouse and Happy bunny like this.
  31. We have plenty of neighbours who cope well without an NHS

    Having lived and worked in Germany my own experience is the quality of care there I received there when needed was far beyond anything I have ever experienced here

    I'm not arguing against having an NHS, it's a good thing, just disagreeing with your statement
     
    Jumbolina likes this.
  32. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior Staff Member

    and that is absolutely fine, I welcome the disagreement. You are right.
    Many of our European neighbours have very fine healthcare systems. they are usually though slightly socialised, as in more so than the usa
     
  33. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    Yes that with all the extra measures they’ve put in place to make sure they’ve got as much capacity as possible. Although it’s worth highlighting the quote that UAE picked out from the BBC article “At this point in time, as of today, there is not enormous pressure on critical care compared to a bad or even normal winter's day," he said.” I don’t know if that is also based on all the extra measures or capacity as well, but it’s positive none the less.

    Either way, a lot is often said about how we’re only two weeks behind Italy etc etc, however by the time they called for nationwide lockdown they already had 800 deaths which is double what we have now. Things are obviously going to get worse here and the NHS could well reach its limits, but it’s seems like we’ve had a relatively long time to prepare the NHS and tool it up as much as possible compared to Italy, where it seemed to overwhelm them before they know what was happening.
     
  34. Cude>2<

    Cude>2< First Team Captain

    To those of you in the NHS on here - Thank you. Couldn't do your job personally, wouldn't hack it, but I have a huge respect to those who can and do.

    Thank you to the other keyworkers as well like Supermarket people, delivery staff, and the others. The one I want to point out as they appear to be missed are the companies changing their production lines to make the ventilators - such as G Tech, Formula One, Rolls Royce and Dyson to name a few (and there are others). These people seem to be largely missed off the credit list. These companies could be saving thousands by producing ventilators for the NHS to use and their staff have been working around the clock to adapt their "BAU".

    One thing I'd "like" to know is the stats of what underlying health conditions have been most fatal. Thoughts to all the families who've lost loved ones, but seeing these youngsters pass before their time does open eyes, and I'd be interested as to what the conditions were to ensure those in the same bracket are taking the correct precautions (E.g 12 week lockdown). Are there any stats on these?
     
  35. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    I can't remember anybody on here saying that. I think this forum has been very pro NHS and there is no need to feel under siege from posters on here. You have everyone's support.
     
    Jumbolina likes this.

Share This Page