Covid-19 Virus

In my view the reason for the increased rate of infections must be down to decreasing public compliance to measures. It’s OK to expect people to comply with a certain level of ‘lockdown’ for a few weeks, but when it gets to many months things will slip - for a number of reasons including necessity and complacency. This decrease in compliance will have taken place in all settings to some degree, including failing to quarantine after a contact or a trip abroad, less distancing and mask wearing in shops and pubs, more moving around the country and certainly more mixing of households and less care within families. Of course no-one is suggesting this (except when it comes to students), especially not politicians who won’t want to be seen ‘blaming’ the public.

 

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Why not sell alcohol after 8pm? Just a petty bureaucratic power show.

 

It's a weak attempt at stopping people congregate and continue drinking after the restaurants tip out.

Unfortunately due to the moron quota in this country, most can't be trusted but to be honest if hospitality is covid secure then imho it should remain open unless there's a no mixing in private regulation in place also. If anything it's going to be easier to control in public spaces and certainly less economically damaging.

 

There is, isn't there?

 

I'm sure most people feel the same. Back in March everyone was frightened and more than happy to comply. Now we know that for 99 per cent of the population Covid is pretty harmless most people will happily ignore whatever rules are brought in

 

Yep. Further lockdowns are going to be the final straw for a number of hospitality businesses.

 

Unfortunately that won’t help business. So we are going to trash the economy even further and pull kids out of school while on the flip side a sizeable percentage of ordinary joes will if ignore the rules in any case so infection will continue. Worst of both worlds.

 

I don't think school closures are definite, in England at least. This is also why half-term is being touted.

 

It's ok though as two scientists (one on SAGE, one on the Flu modelling sub group) reckon, "between 3,000 and 107,000 deaths could be avoided by January if strict circuit breaker curbs are imposed from 24 October to 7 November"

If I produced a piece of work for my boss that had a range of over 100,000 as a potential outcome, I'd be laughed out of town. Why are these scientists being taken seriously?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-on-england

 

So the scientists tell us that it's either essential to apply a circuit breaker, or utterly pointless to.
"Follow the science".

 

That's right. Which is why some believe any further lockdown or restrictions are utterly pointless. The only encouraging news to come out this week is that Boris ignored Sage's call for another full lockdown. Perhaps the penny is finally beginning to drop

 

It’s laughable. The best bit is they use “could” even though they have produced a worthless figure just in case it comes in different. Can’t be too careful.

 

Hope so. Despite his poor performance so far this is where Boris needs to be strong, especially with Starmer advocating a lockdown.

 

Current list of covid 'interventions' and their various 'impacts':
https://assets.publishing.service.g...data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf

 

Birmingham Council hands out used swab tests to students...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...Covid-testing-swab-kits-mistake-students.html

 

What’s vital is that the Government’s actions to restrict or lockdown are coherent. Probably more important than which one it goes for right now. That coherence has clearly been lost and the new measures don’t seem sufficiently clear to restore it. There shouldn’t be any doubt left in people’s minds what the measures mean for them, their jobs and their businesses.

But is your position to keep restrictions or lift them? And if it’s the latter what do you think things will be like mid-winter?

 

Agree 100% on clarity and the government has been useless on that.

My position is that another lockdown would be completely unacceptable for the economy and for mental health. We can’t hide forever on and off waiting for a vaccine that may never come.

However, we absolutely need prudent sensible restrictions on high risk activities and personal responsibility - masks, hand washing, social distancing. And as you say that message must be crystal clear.

 

How closely do you think people will follow these new rules, norn?

 

Listening to a guy on the radio last night about NZ's approach. Everybody arriving quarantined 14 days, tested 3 times - if you test +ve, off to hospital until you are better/dead. If you drive to flout lockdown, first time you get caught £fine, second time car crushed. They only had to crush 5 cars. This weekend there will be a capacity crowd at Eden Park.

 

Every positive case goes to hospital? How on earth would that help not overwhelming the NHS!?? Ridiculous idea.

 

Exactly. We put every positive case in hospital for the first few weeks but soon had to abandon it.

 

I wonder if there's an updated one of these, just shy of 20k new cases reported today, so the reality is about a week behind Witty & Valance's statement.

 

The Whitty/Vallance scenario is off the Y axis. We’re closer to cases doubling every 9 days since the government found thousands down the back of the sofa last week.

The Twitter handle of the guy who does these and lots more bedsides is top right of the graph by the way.

 

99%?