Covid-19 Virus

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by Hornet4ever, Jan 30, 2020.

  1. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    We had this slide during the PM’s Sunday night disaster speech a few weeks back.


    But everyone seems to have forgotten it since, probably because formatting it like it’s an equation was complete cobblers. The number of actual infections is key too though.

    From what I’ve read, if you have 10 cases a day one week and 20 cases a day the following week, your R becomes 2. That’s a very basic understanding. But the number of infections is still very low and if only 6 of the 20 are in the community (with the rest in care homes or hospitals), it’s even less useful as a measure.

    The BBC website makes a good point. “This is why it is always important to look at R as part of the wider picture of what is happening. An R value of 1 when there are 100 cases a day is a completely different picture to an R value of 1 when there are 100,000 a day.”
  2. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    "From what I’ve read, if you have 10 cases a day one week and 20 cases a day the following week, your R becomes 2"

    If R is 2 it means an infected person infects 2 more? So if you have 10 cases total in observation 1, presumably it would be 30 total in observation 2 to get R of 2? And then 90 and then 270.
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  3. a19tgg

    a19tgg Reservist

    One place, the south west, has an R between 0.8 and 1.1. Although this is the first time the government have published the figures themselves they’ve been widely available if you dig around.

    From what I’ve read the R value is derived from 13 different reports, so the worst of those 13 reports had the SW at 1.1, however the rest or at least the vast majority may well be below 1, and obviously the average of 0.8 and 1.1 is less than 1 anyway.

    So although it might be above 1 in one area it probably isn’t.

    Last week it was the NW that might have been above 1, because the worst report had it at 1.01, but that’s back down again now.

    If you look at the ONS data published every Friday, that has shown a consistent almost predictable downward trend with little sign of the R at a national level changing at all. The key thing with the ONS data is it’s just a study of the general population, it excludes care homes and hospitals. So if the virus is consistently trending downward with an R comfortably below 1, it’s clear if regionally or locally you have a higher R it’s very likely down to figures from hospitals and care homes, not the general population.

    Also the SW has a very low number of cases, so the R potentially being 1.1 there is not really an issue.
  4. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Yes, my maths was wrong.
  5. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Going back into work on Monday; my employer decided the time was right to bring everyone back onsite.

    When they told us to work from home, there were ~200 cases in the state. Now we have 20,000, and are setting weekly records for new infections. And apparently, this means it's a great time to bring everyone back into the building.

    Meanwhile, 14 US states post a 25% spike in the last week.

    It's an absolute ******* shitshow over here.
    davisp2 likes this.
  6. luke_golden

    luke_golden Space Cadet

    Fake news m8. Covid hoax innit.
    The undeniable truth and Arakel like this.
  7. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    Well, thank fark for that!
  8. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Restaurants, Cafes, Hotels and Bars opening from July 3rd in NI.

    Numbers currently low here:

    0 deaths today (same as yesterday)
    5 in ICU
    38 in hospital
  9. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    When will the bookies open, my Belfast based client doesn't know.
  10. I coughed without thinking in Sainsbury’s, you will never see an aisle clear faster. One guy was almost in a panic waving his arms around.

    Perhaps I should find other shops to cough in?
  11. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I think they are already open, a few guys in my football team work in them and I think they possibly opened today.
  12. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Are they not offering odds on the date?
  13. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Corals did!
  14. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    Strange, I was talking to a guy in the race room at Toals and he said they were still waiting on the devolved government's approval. I pointed out that by already having screens betting shops were in a good place for staff to be safe from the virus.
  15. StuBoy

    StuBoy Forum Cad and Bounder

    This could probably now be classed as a schoolboy error.
  16. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    Looks like China is having another serious outbreak.
  17. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

  18. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    It's good to know what I need to stockpile.
  19. The %'s are too low to stockpile....
  20. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I’ve decided to treat Mrs UEA to a Covid test at the local army mobile testing station this morning. Shh, don’t tell her, it’ll ruin the surprise.
  21. lm_wfc

    lm_wfc Squad Player

  22. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    Wait for Who Wants to be a Millionaire to restart
  23. I'm waiting for Thames Water to come and unblock my drains. I'll ask themt o complete a Cv19 sewage test while they're here. I'll report back :).
  24. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Quite a seamless experience. In these straightened times with many attractions still closed, I’d give this one a Trip Advisor score of 4 out of 5. Hopefully Mrs UEA doesn’t get used to being addressed as Ma’am.
  25. So do you know yet whether she needs to be put down or can be spared ?
  26. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    It's a 48hr ish wait for a text message / special forces extraction unit apparently.
    nascot likes this.
  27. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Turns out it was a 27 hour wait. Negative.

    Very efficient I must say.
    wfcwarehouse likes this.
  28. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Bloody teenagers. Our 16 year old basically decided that lockdown was pretty much over once the rules were relaxed. She has only met people outside and (unlike many of her peers) has not been allowed to have anyone stay the night at our house, nor has she been allowed to stay elsewhere. However, when out and about, she and her pals have pretty much ignored social distancing - hugging, staying close to one another, etc. This morning, we get a phone call from the mum of the 16 yr old’s best friend. She is tested weekly for Covid, as her work takes her into hospitals. Today her test came back positive, although she has no symptoms. Because my daughter and hers have been in close contact, our whole family now has to self isolate for 14 days, just as we’re all getting out and about more. V annoying.
  29. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Maybe I'm reading the rules overly literally but I'm not sure you need to self-isolate for 14 days. Your daughter has been in close contact with the infected person's daughter, but not the infected person presumably? I think you're one step removed and so should be able to carry on for now. At least until and if the 'world beating' NHS Contact Tracers get in touch and tell you otherwise.
  30. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I rang 111 (or rather 119) to check what we needed to do. Rather naively I was hoping they’d say our 16 year old could get a test, that she’d test negative and then we’d carry on as we were. If the 16 year old and her friends had been keeping to the 1m/2m rule, we’d be fine. But because they haven’t, we all have to self isolate.
  31. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    I think I agree with UEA, I don't think you have to self isolate at this stage.

    Maybe just be extra careful when going out? Obviously lock the daughter in the shed, though!

    PS, just seen your update. That's a blow.
  32. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    I'm going to lock my daughter in the shed at 16 years old as well but for different reasons!
    zztop likes this.
  33. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Interesting. And frustrating. Because I'm such on contrarian on all this I admit I'd be inclined in your shoes to call 119 again just to see if I got the same answer twice. Ultimately they're common sense guidelines so maybe just do as zztop suggests and be cautious rather than sealing yourselves away completely for a fortnight.
  34. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    More encouraging figures in NI.

    The latest figures (for yesterday really)

    0 deaths
    1 positive test (1,027 people tested)
    'Only' 3 people in ICU
    'Only' 33 people in hospital

    For the equivalent day last week (10th)
    16 positive tests (1,231 people tested)
    Deaths: 0 (we get quite a few days of 0 deaths now, although the 11th had 2 deaths)
    9 in ICU
    61 people in hospital

    Only 1 hospital admission from Sunday onwards too.
  35. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Good idea. The only thing is, the woman I spoke to took my details and put me on hold for ages while she checked with someone, as she said she wanted to make sure she gave me the correct advice. Of course now the 13 year old (who is the polar opposite of her sister - a much more risk-averse character who still hasn’t been out since lockdown; in fact, ironically, I had persuaded her that she should go and see a friend in their garden this weekend for the first time) is now saying she has a tickly cough and thinks she has the virus. It’s like that scene in Airplane with the food poisoning....!
    zztop, Otter and UEA_Hornet like this.

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