Coronavirus Werewolf Day 2

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Mar 24, 2020.

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Coronavirus Werewolf DAY 2

Poll closed Mar 25, 2020.
  1. Cassetti's Beard

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. GoingDown

    41.7%
  3. Grrwood

    8.3%
  4. HappyHornet24

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. Horace_goes_up_north

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. hornetgags

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  7. lowerrous

    25.0%
  8. miked2006

    25.0%
  9. nornironhorn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  10. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  11. Squibba

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. steve harrow

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
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  1. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Have people started voting yet?

    Getting rid of me off the back of a clear false accusation would be either very foolish, or plain nefarious.

    Still, we have to get rid of someone. From what I've seen so far, based on their writing and that they've both been laying pretty low, I reckon we won't go too far wrong with either Grrwood or Squibba.

    I also hold suspicions on miked, but it would be higher risk.
     
  2. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    It's obvious already. You'll just be needlessly removing a villager.
     
  3. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Norns logic makes sense to me.

    In typical games, I'd argue to kill lowerrous as it would typically reveal a good player from day 1.

    However, given this kill will tell us nothing (Gags is confirmed Good already) and we know this message is from the wolf, I'd argue the complete opposite.

    Is there a traitor in the game? If so, and you think that LR wouldn't name themselves as Evil, then there's a better chance at picking an evil at random (3/13) than there is that the alpha randomly picked an evil player (2/13).

    Also, there's a chance that the wolf may have worked out who the traitor is by now and the wolf will be trying their best not to take out another wolf, reducing those odds slightly more.

    Given we learn nothing from LRs death, I'm going to go for someone else in the village.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  4. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Who else are people going to be voting for though?

    I'm concerned some may foolishly still vote for me, in which case the remaining votes can't afford to be too scattergun.
     
  5. Surely the right logic is to go with the named player just to confirm everything we "think" so far regarding the messages.

    A random confirms absolutely nothing unless we get very lucky. Lower confirms a lot of unverified suspicions.
     
  6. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Your "logic" will just be following whatever the wolf wants you to do, and they probably have a reason for picking on me to be killed...
     
  7. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    There is nothing that will be "confirmed" by killing LR.

    We know Gags is the Gunslinger. The Gunslinger (I'm assuming) is a good role, therefore Gags is confirmed Good.

    Gags tells us that when viewed by the seer, he will be viewed as Evil. As message 2 today viewed Gags as good, we know that message 1 is from the seer and message 2 is from the wolf.

    We have more chance at finding an evil player, by looking at villager which has not been named as evil by the alpha.
     
  8. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    We haven't had that confirmed though. Only Gagsy has said that. Moog thought the complete opposite this morning. Both experienced players saying completely opposite things? Questionable at best.
     
  9. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    I'd be tempted to go for someone who is contributing very little but my only fear is that we accidentally lynch the seer who is maybe purposely trying to fly under the radar
     
  10. The wolf probably doesn't know if your good or bad unless both wolves gave managed to communicate this to each other and we've all missed the signs.
     
  11. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The only players that need to lie are the Evil players. There is no reason for Gags to lie now that he is confirmed Good, cannot be killed at night and won't be lynched.
     
    wfcmoog likes this.
  12. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    This could be my inexperience at this game, but why would it benefit the seer to fly under the radar?
     
  13. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    If HG is correct that he would show up as evil when viewed, then the 2nd message today is from the wolf.

    If the 2nd message is from the wolf, then LR is statistically less likely to be a bad character than any of the rest of us, as he's at least not the wolf writing the messages.
     
  14. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    If you hadn't been named good already I'd be voting for you as the traitor tbh.
     
    miked2006 likes this.
  15. Otter

    Otter Gambling industry insider

    One hour to go villagers
     
  16. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    I asked the question. It's nothing to do with experience, more to do with Otter's own rules.

    Are you just sewing confusion for the sake of it?

    Why would HG lie about it? If he's confirmed good, he would be leading us to believe something very damaging for team good.
     
  17. wfcmoog

    wfcmoog Tinpot

    Because otherwise the wolf will kill them.
     
  18. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    The seer needs to stay alive as long as possible for team good to win. The best way to stay alive in this game is to not really contribute in the opening days.
     
  19. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    But then won't people just pick on them instead for not contributing?
     
  20. Lynch lowerous and you'd probably find out!!! :)
     
  21. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    Why? The Wolf has no more idea than we do who’s good or evil.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.
  22. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster Staff Member

    I agree that I don’t think lynching lowerrous will tell us that much. But on Day 2, and in the absence of any concrete clues, I don’t see who else to vote for.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.
  23. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    Usually a player or two calls them out on it but it rarely would lead to a lynching. It is usually a good tactic to survive the first few days.

    The player also doesn't tend to get 'noticed' as much by the wolf.
     
  24. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The traitor will try to communicate with them. Plus the wolf won't be making obvious accusations or logically trying to work things out.

    From memory, I've worked out the other evil players whenever I've been the wolf relatively quickly.
     
  25. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    2 in 10 chance of a lowerrous being evil (assuming he isn't the alpha naming himself).

    For the other 9 in my previous list, there is a 3 in 10 chance that those players are evil.
     
    miked2006 likes this.
  26. I agree. I'm not trying to confuse things. But in these games logic always says go with a named player unless there is a really sufficient reason not to.

    Even mike above said the same thing, that in other games you'd normally go for the named player.
     
  27. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    There's an hour to go and it doesn't look like anything else will be revealed.

    I've decided on who I'm going to vote for based on the following logic/ guesswork:

    I agree with Norn that the key suspects are:
    Cassetti's Beard
    GoingDown
    Grrwood
    HappyHornet24
    miked2006
    nornironhorn
    Optimistichornet
    Squibba
    wfcmoog

    When reading the write up, I thought the word 'character' seemed out of place when describing the wolf (everywhere else they are referred to 'the wolf' bar one 'the creature'). Given Otter likes leaving clues in his write up, I'm most suspicious of the following who are based on characters/ have characters in their name:

    GoingDown
    Optimistichornet
    wfcmoog

    I think Moog genuinely forgot about the game on day 1.

    GoingDown
    Optimistichornet

    My gut tells me the alpha is more likely to be inexperienced, as not giving us a name on day 1 seems a bit of a rookie move.

    I'm therefore going for GoingDown
     
  28. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    Except usually you don't know who the wolf is. If the message started with 'Hi I am the wolf' as it has essentially done in this game, then the logic doesn't apply.
     
    nornironhorn likes this.
  29. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    I don't see how any of those three really count as characters? How would they could, but squibba or grrwood not, for instance?

    I really don't think the main wolf is GD, not to see he might not be something else.
     
  30. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    Which is why it'd be good for the wolf to call my name out so soon,
     
  31. Why is lowerrous not even named as a suspect though, unless you're sure the evil all know each other? Are you genuinely sure the wolf has picked a guaranteed good and put them in the firing line?
     
  32. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    He is 100% a suspect for evil. No-one is disputing that.

    But he isn't as strong as suspect for the alpha wolf as those other 9 players.

    So when deciding who to lynch, we should go for someone who has a potential to be the alpha, beta or the traitor.

    We cannot assume he is good though.
     
    Horace_goes_up_north likes this.
  33. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

    The Moog is a TV character.
    The other two have characters in their picture.

    Like I and a few others have already said.

    If we pick at random, we have a 3/13 chance of getting an evil.
    Given we don't think LR will have picked himself as evil if he was the alpha, we think there's a 2/13 chance that he's picked an evil.

    I'd prefer to go for the option which has slightly more favourable odds.
     
  34. GoingDown

    GoingDown "The Stability"

    There's a stretch and then there's this post. What characters are in my name?

    Considering this post and the fact that you've pushed this weird character theory earlier as well, smacks of desperation when it's not required.

    I think I'll be going with you.
     
  35. Ok fair enough. But let's not leave him off the suspect list completely though.
     
    miked2006 and nornironhorn like this.
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