Comparing Promotion Squads

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by folkestone orn, Sep 20, 2020.

  1. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    There has been some debate about whether the current squad is good enough for promotion. I thought it would be interesting to compare it with the previous Watford squads that have been promoted in the EPL era.

    Obviously in 1998/99 and 2005/06 we massively upset the odds by getting promoted, so you would think the current bunch would be better (on paper anyway). I think we were probably one of the favourites in 2014/15, so this is more like the benchmark we should aim for.

    Let's compare those sides:

    GK

    98/99

    Chamberlain
    Day

    05/06

    Foster
    Chamberlain

    14/15

    Gomes
    Bond

    20/21

    Foster
    Bachmann

    CD

    98/99

    Page
    Palmer
    Yates

    05/06

    DeMerit
    Carlisle
    Mackay

    14/15

    Angella
    Ekstrand
    Connolly
    Bassong
    Hoban
    Tamas

    20/21

    Wilmot
    Kabasele
    Cathcart
    Sierralta

    LB

    98/99

    Robbo

    05/06

    Stewart

    14/15

    Pudil
    Motta

    20/21

    Femenia
    Stevenson

    RB

    1998/99

    Gibbs

    2005/06

    Chambers
    Mariappa

    2014/15

    Layun
    Parades

    2020/21

    Ngakia
    Navarro

    CM

    1998/99

    Hyde
    Johnson
    Iroha
    Bonnot
    Easton
    Hazan

    2005/06

    Mahon
    Spring
    Bangura
    Blizzard
    Diagouraga

    2014/15

    Abdi
    Toszer
    Andrews
    Watson
    Guedioura
    Munari
    McGugan

    2020/21

    Chalobah
    Quina
    Cleverly
    Phillips
    Garner

    RW

    1998/99

    Wright

    2005/06

    Eagles
    Mcnamee

    2014/15

    Anya
    Murray

    2020/21

    Pussetto


    LW

    1998/99

    Kennedy

    2005/06

    Young
    Devlin

    2014/15

    Dyer
    Fabbrini

    2020/21

    Sema

    F

    1998/99

    Mooney
    Noel-Williams
    Ngonge
    Smart
    Rosenthal
    Lee

    2005/06

    King
    Henderson
    Bouazza
    Grant

    2014/15

    Vydra
    Deeney
    Fessi
    Ighalo

    2020/21

    Pedro
    Gray
    Murray
    Perica
    Sinclair

    This is pretty much a worst case scenario squad for us this season. I imagine we'll add some depth, if not quality. So how does it compare with the previous squads?
     
    cyaninternetdog and SkylaRose like this.
  2. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    I would say we are equally strong in goal as in 05/06.

    The CBs are the strongest out of all of them. Would take Angella from 14/15, but that's about it.

    Wing-backs we can just about get away with. Clearly need more depth though. Would maybe take Robbo instead of Femenia. Layun was too good for this level anyway.

    This is where we fall apart imo.
    The sheer depth in midfield in
    2014/15 was amazing. With games so thick and fast we need similar depth this year.
    Think we are arguably stronger than 05/06, but that's about it. Hyde and Johnson would both have improved this team, as would Abdi, Toszer, Guedioura and Watson. We need at least 2 players who are better than we've already got imo.

    Wide positions may not be relevant. Actually really hard to compare. Ash was a cut above, but much of muchness otherwise. May be able to get away by adding a little more depth.

    Forwards. Another major issue.
    05/06 and 14/15 lot piss all over this lot. Not even close. In 1998/99 we had players with great desire and God as manager. Needs major improvement. Reckon Perica will score a few. Gray too, when fit. Need one more, that is a cut above these.

    Conclusion-
    We need 2 quality midfielders and 1 quality striker, 1 or 2 backup wingers and another left-back for depth.
     
  3. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Midfield and strikers much weaker now. But as you say this is worse case scenario.
     
  4. Shaun

    Shaun Academy Graduate

    How can you even compare , the promotion squad was full
    If exciting takent last time and no mercenary’s Don’t even compare it
     
  5. simpleMASH

    simpleMASH Reservist

    Really underines how important it is to keep (at least) one of Hughes or Capoue and one of Sarr or Suarez. If we do that and bring in a left back (and add Troost-Ekong at CB) then I think the squad is there. It’s not good enough to walk the league, or to win regardless of how they’re set up, but Ivic will have the tools at his disposal to succeed.
     
  6. Bwood_Horn

    Bwood_Horn Squad Player

    The '14-'15 squad was the result of some 'tweaking' as it was the 3rd attempt to get promotion? And the '05-'06 squad was Boothroyd's that was based up a prolific strike rate of Marlon King who subsequently was out injured virtually season?
     
    folkestone orn likes this.
  7. simpleMASH

    simpleMASH Reservist

    Yep, that’s right.
     
  8. You've missed out Tom Del Bashiru and Will Hughes, Will changes the comparison significantly and is arguably the best CM in the division this year imo. You've also missed out Femenia and Janmaat.

    I put the 05/06 and 20/21 GK combo equal top.

    I'd pick the 20/21 defence.

    With Will Hughes on the list, I'd also pick 20/21 midfield.

    I'd pick the 14/15 strikers, on the proviso Sarr and Suarez aren't in the 20/21 squad when the window closes.
     
  9. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    I've deliberately missed out those players as they may well leave! Like I said- worst case scenario. Agree Hughes is a game changer. Still think we are one Midfielder away with him included.
    Dele-Bashiru won't be ready to start regularly, maybe useful to rotate.

    I agree, if we add Hughes, Capoue and Sarr to the squad. We will get promoted.

    TBH I didn't realize how strong our defence was until laying it out like that.
     
  10. Hughes isn't playing because he's recovering from an operation, not because he's one of the obvious want away's. Yes he might leave but there has been nothing of substance on social media so I don't think you can leave him out and have a fair comparison. Even if TDB is a rotation option you can't leave him out either, not if you're including Andrews. McGugan went on loan that season didn't he?
     
  11. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    I forgot about Dele-Bashiru. Hughes has been linked with a move to Spurs. Entirely possible that he gets sold.
     
  12. Relegation Certs

    Relegation Certs Squad Player

    98/99 would beat any of the others.
     
  13. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Comparisons like this are always very difficult. Generally speaking people are unable to make allowances for the difference in quality between leagues. A player who performed well for us in the championship will always be held in higher regard than one who performed badly a league higher, even if that player is actually a better player. This will always skew people’s perception.

    Take our last promotion midfield:

    Abdi
    Toszer
    Andrews
    Watson
    Guedioura
    Munari
    McGugan

    Watson is really the only one of that lot who really even featured as a prem player then sunk back down again. Abdi and Gueds were fantastic championship players but looked a shadow of themselves a league higher.

    Then you look at our current midfield, Cleverley has played at the top level most of his career, as has Chalobah. Quinoa certainly has the potential to be better premier league standard, Garner obviously is.

    Objectively they’re all better players, but most people will never be willing to see it that way.

    This is also where the ability of a good manager is underestimated.

    You could take a bang average championship team and a good manager would get them promoted and a bad manager would get them relegated.

    As disappointing as our current squad is, a good manager is more than capable of doing with them what our last promotion squad achieved. Obviously the more of the better players we can keep the better it will be, but we definitely didn’t have them the last time.
     
  14. He might well be sold, but there is no inertia to that story that I can see on social media, forums, newspapers or ITKs so i dint think you can leave him out in this exercise.

    so

    Abdi
    Gueds
    Toszer
    Watson
    Munari
    (Andrews - fired)

    v

    Hughes
    Cleverley
    Chalobah
    Quina
    TDB
    Garner

    Personally I’m still going for the current midfield
     
    folkestone orn likes this.
  15. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    With the likely arrival of T-E today, I think most people will be content with the central defence and goal keeping options for this season. We certainly should be good enough in this area to achieve a top 6 placement with those players.

    The areas of weakness are now midfield and up front.

    We still have players on our books to improve both of these areas and it's something we really need to do. Adding Hughes and Garner to Cleverley, Quina, Chalobah and Dele-Bashiru maybe enough, but we don't really know how effective Garner is going to be, and Chalobah/Quina's form has not really been good enough yet. For now, I'd like us to also keep Capoue. If we did that, we'd have a good enough midfield for sure.

    Finally the forward options. I really believe we have to keep Suarez and Sarr. If those two guys go, we'd only be left with Murray, Perica & Gray. That would mean we'd have to keep either Deeney or Welbeck, but it would be a little lopsided with three of those players being out and out target men. I'd much prefer the balance of Suarez/Gray and Perica/Deeney (or Welbeck). It already looks as though Murray may have been a mistake.

    So, before doing a comparison over promotion squads, we've got to ensure this season we have a promotion squad in the first place. Right now, we're not using enough of the quality to be considered a team expecting promotion. The players we've been using so far, whilst looking solid, they are nothing more than functional. The club has to really nail down what they want to do this week and start using all the players that "could be" part of the set up once the transfer window closes.
     
  16. lowerrous

    lowerrous First Team

    It's still too soon for this given the state of flux our squad is in.
     
  17. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Transfermrkt had him at a 50% chance of going to Spurs. Either way, he is good player who may well be subject to offers.

    Take Hughes out of the midfield and it isn't strong enough. I think we can agree on that.
     
  18. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Of course it is. I'm just bored and thought it would be interesting to compare previous squads. I'm a little disappointed that there appears to be so much agreement about the areas of weakness!
     
  19. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    If we keep Hughes, Capoue, Suarez and Sarr I'd expect us to comfortably finish top 2. I expect Murray would be far more useful coming off the bench on 75 mins, than starting games.
     
  20. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    If you construct something as "worst case scenario", that's probably inevitable.

    The squads you're comparing to were complete. We still have a month of the window to go. If you were to compare our current worst case against an equivalent worst case for the other squads when they had a month of the window to go, the picture would be rather different.
     
  21. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Yeah, I get that. Just thought it would be useful to compare to previous squads and try to make myself feel a bit more positive about things! Also gives an insight into where we can afford to lose players v where we cannot.

    Edit- also a useful way of seeing whether Gino is giving Ivic the tools to achieve promotion. It's safe to say that the squad will need reinforcements in order to be in that position.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2020
  22. Arakel

    Arakel First Team

    What I find interesting is that despite our squad still having a month of the transfer window left, we still compare quite favorably when you look at the individual areas. We're already objectively better in some areas, and the areas where we trail other squads are almost certain to see reinforcement based on current patterns.

    Whether that reinforcement is the players currently under contract or new signings remains to be seen. I think it's fairly obvious that retaining the likes of Capoue, Sarr and Suarez should push us over the top, though.
     
  23. folkestone orn

    folkestone orn Squad Player

    Completely agree. In defence we look stronger than I thought Vs previous squads. I think it also takes away the excuse of us being skint, if Pozzo fails to retain/sign the couple of quality players to push us over the line.
     
  24. a19tgg

    a19tgg First Team

    Another way to look at it was imagine our only frame of reference was actually Aidy and GTs premier league seasons. Both our lowest points total by far. How would we view those players if our only frame of reference was purely a season rooted to the bottom of the league and not even getting 30 points, rather than with the benefit of a positive championship season to skew our perception.
     
    folkestone orn likes this.
  25.  

Share This Page