A question of probability - help please!

Discussion in 'Taylor's Tittle-Tattle - General Banter' started by zztop, Feb 18, 2019.

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  1. Beekayess

    Beekayess Reservist

    It's like the lottery - you have 6 numbers, and you want to match them (exactly) out of the available set. The probability of picking 6 correct lottery numbers out of 49 is :-

    (49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44) / (6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)

    In this case, the weasel was "sick" on 5 precise dates out of 20. It seems to me that the probability of that happening is :-

    (20 x 19 x 18 x 17 x 16) / (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)
     
    Beekayess, Feb 20, 2019
    #36
  2. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    He was either sick on the dates or not as such it's surely 50/50?

    In all seriousness I'd stay aware from percentages etc as they can be picked apart pretty easily.

    Just state the facts. On 5 occasions his care duties were relinquished due to sickness. On those 5 occasions they were days his football team played (probably in admissable - supposition I watch too much Suits). If you can get team sheets to back up your allegation or testimony from team-mate or opponent then jobsagoodun.

    If it helps the ONS suggests that the average number of days sick is 4.1 per year so at 5/22 weeks he's over twice as ill as the average person.

    Of course best wishes to you and your daughter.
     
    hornmeister, Feb 20, 2019
    #37
  3. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    But that assumes the probability of him being sick and not being sick is equal, ie a 50/50 chance of each. It works for the lottery as the probability of drawing ball 34 is the exact same as drawing ball 12 for example.

    No, that's not how it works, it is not 50/50. If you had a 6 sided die, where one side has the value 1 and the other sides all have the value of 2, then you can only possibly roll a one or a two. The probability however, is not 50/50. The same applies in this scenario.

    The rest of your comment I agree with though. Statistics are often more subjective than people realise, hence why I have tried not to be subjective at all.
     
    nornironhorn, Feb 20, 2019
    #38
  4. hornmeister

    hornmeister Tired

    Nah, you either roll 1 or 2 it's got to be 50/50. It's like winning the lottery, you either win or you don't 50/50 with such a huge sum available for winners I'm surprised Camelot are profitable.

    It's also 50/50 I woosh you again.:p
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2019
    hornmeister, Feb 20, 2019
    #39
    nornironhorn likes this.
  5. nornironhorn

    nornironhorn Administrator Staff Member

    The maths has made me drop my 'woosh guard' in this thread... never again!
     
    nornironhorn, Feb 20, 2019
    #40
    hornmeister likes this.
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