18-19 Points Progress

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Davidmsawyer, Aug 21, 2018.

  1. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    I’d say the player we have missed most is Ighalo.

    We’re creating chances but not finishing them.

    Ideally Johnston or Phillips.
  2. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    Is this Norwich (Viking name) people have duodecimal hands?
  3. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team

    Ighalo wasn't naturally a good finisher. He was no better than the players we already have on our books. With Ighalo, he had an amazing 18 month purple patch, where every time he took a shot it went in. He was playing like one of the best strikers in Europe at the time, however, that form has been proved to be above his natural level.

    Probably Vydra was technically the best finisher we've ever had under the Pozzo's, although he's not particularly good at sniffing out chances.

    The problem with a club like Watford is that they need to find someone who is reliable or competent in front of goal, but who would be happy staying at the club for a while.

    It's all very well finding a brilliant young player, like Richarlison, but he's will not stay at the club for long. These deals are good for a season, then you cash in for big money, but that doesn't help the team too much long term. What we need to find is a reliable journeyman pro, who will be happy to stay at the club and will enjoy taking the numerous chances the club creates for him. We thought Gray was this man, but we backed the wrong pony on this one and we have to live with that mistake for 5 years, as no one else will take him off our hands for the money he's earning.
    PowerJugs likes this.
  4. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    That's close enough to a natural finisher for me.
    BigRossLittleRoss likes this.
  5. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    Not quite what I'm getting at.

    If you cut out the first 4 weeks results, after that have been pretty much identical. The line trend is the same. So what I'm saying is apart from the first 4 lucky results we've not improved. An improvement would have shown our current line steadily moving away from last season's line. It hasn't, it's maintained the same trend albeit advanced by the first 4 results.
  6. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    The current position is:
    • 1 point worse than this time last year (21 vs 22). This is 1 point better than after the last game.
    • 6 points better than the comparable fixtures last year (21 vs 15). This is 1 points better than after the last game.
    • 4 points better than the '40 point' line (21 vs 17). This is the same as after the last game
    hashiban, RunkleHorn and EB Hornet like this.
  7. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever First Team Captain

    Lets hope we get a better result against a newly promoted side at home in mid December than we did last season!
  8. EB Hornet

    EB Hornet Reservist

    Cheers David, love this thread and your work with this. The comparable chart has cheered me up a little.
  9. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    We were just so close to adding 2 more points:(
  10. Teide1

    Teide1 Squad Player

    We had our nightmare home result of the season already, Bournmouth, can't have another one this season,
    Cardiff won't be easy but score first and we wil be ok!
  11. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    I do get your point, but we cannot get a better result in every game. We could/should of done better, but we still have an improvement. Now 40% more points than the same fixtures last year, how many other teams have a better improvement than us?
  12. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    I think this poor paint job better illustrates my point.

    we were lucky for the first couple of matches. If we take them out of the equation since those matches we've slightly underperformed compared to last year. Our league position is enhanced because of the lucky/good early start and given we only just avoided the relegation battle last year I am afraid of being complacent.
    I work in financial analysis and I grant that this is going to be more interesting to me then to most others, but I'm looking for an improvement year on year. I want to see a line that has a slightly steeper curve than last year, that to me is improvement. Last night's point does of course help and narrows the gap but we are still effectively in deficit (if you ignore the first few matches). Certainly the trend is no improvement at best.
    We want to be comfortably mid table and if our season goes the way it did last year we will again be clenching our buttocks.

    Maybe I'm just being to negative?
  13. FromDiv4

    FromDiv4 Reservist

    Please do the analysis again ignoring all the games we won last year. This should give you a positive result.

    I think you are looking at the data too hard ;)

    As I said, yes we should of done better, but we doing ok overall.
  14. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    Can't help it. It's my job it's a quiet time of year and I'm a sad git.
  15. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    Why remove the first four games?
  16. hornmeister

    hornmeister Administrator Staff Member

    My hypothesis is that they were lucky results and artificially raise our points tally making us look better than we are. Whilst they are useful points, when looking for an improvement on a like for like opponent scale we need to analyse rate of point collection.

    So my point is we've not really improved over last season performance wise but we have a few more points which is the only thing likely to keep us in safety.
  17. Knight GT

    Knight GT Predictor extraordinaire 2013/14

    Brighton was definitely not lucky, neither was Burnley, Palace maybe a draw but you could argue we deserved more in other games, Spurs we deserved. They don't artificially raise our points tally, they were well earned and deserved. I suspect you are removing them to allow your analysis to work
    Rozerhorn and nornironhorn like this.
  18. I'd forgotten just how badly we'd started 83/84 without Luther, before a little (and a big) help from north of the border....Still in the bottom 3 at the end of November.
  19. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss Squad Player

    Classic reverse engineering of interpretation of statistics to fit a pre conceived theory .

    Bookmakers make millions every day out of that fundamental blind spot in the human brain.
  20. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I guess to get your graph, you should also exclude the other teams points points too. I’m not going to work that out.but I agree with others - maybe we overachieved at the start by a couple of of points. But how is that lucky, when by the same measure when we lose points that is the proper form?
    brumhorn likes this.
  21. AndrewH63

    AndrewH63 Reservist

    My hypothesis is that we have had four very unlucky losses so far this season that have artificially suppressed our points total. Which is masking our improvement this year.
  22. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    1 They were good results, we done good to get them.

    2 You makes your own luck anyhow.

    3 No buttocks required clenching. We're comfy.
  23. 18th place Hudds are on target for 23 points. Safe already!
  24. RookeryDad

    RookeryDad Squad Player

    4 teams have a worse GD than number of games played.

    We can declare on 30 points & enjoy a 6 month pre season.
    EB Hornet likes this.
  25. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Sorry for the delay - I left my laptop at work. Here is the latest update:

    The current position is:
    • 2 points better than this time last year (24 vs 22). This is 3 points better than after the last game.
    • 9 points better than the comparable fixtures last year (24 vs 15). This is 3 points better than after the last game.
    • 6 points better than the '40 point' line (24 vs 18). This is 2 points better than after the last game.
    EB Hornet, Sahorn and PowerJugs like this.
  26. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    Something wrong with my code there, here is the comparable graph...
  27. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    I was tracking this too, but sadly Southampton have scuppered this...
    18th place Burnley are on target for... 27 points.

    Sorry people - relegation is back on the table :(
  28. Jimmy Armchair

    Jimmy Armchair Academy Graduate

    I enjoy looking at these graphs each week. But each week I have to remind myself I'm staring at minuscule differences over the last three years.

    Is this the lot of being a mid-table fan? Trying to find a story in the same old stuff?

    Thanks for doing the work, though, David. Hoping to see the differences increase, for once, in the second half of the season.
  29. The graphs start to flatten out around this time in the past few years due to the drops in form. Hopefully this year the gap will significantly widen as we keep up the form we're showing.
  30. LPC213

    LPC213 Reservist

    Play around with the data over at understat.com

    This year we are around two points worse off than our performances have deserved.
    After 17 games in 2015 which appears to be the benchmark, we were around two points better off than the performances deserved.

    We all know what the issues are. We're so much better than under Quique we just can't finish our chances.

    Obviously doesn't include the refereeing nonsense.
    Davidmsawyer and PowerJugs like this.
  31. Davidmsawyer

    Davidmsawyer Statto Statto Statto

    That feels about right to be fair. Not sure how they come with the numbers but they probably aren't far off.

    I assume it shows Cardiff should have about 15 points more this season? Great team. Love their style. Love their manager
  32. Teide1

    Teide1 Squad Player

    These stats always make interesting reading, many thanks for the effort and time you put into them, they are much appreciated!
    Davidmsawyer likes this.
  33. Happy bunny

    Happy bunny Cheered up a bit

    One week I'm suicidal, the next I'm breaking open the champers
  34. V Crabro

    V Crabro Reservist

    Approaching the halfway point and time for quick look at the Pozzo Era Mini League:

    Pos Pts
    10 Watford 24
    11 AFCB 23
    12 Leicester 22
    15 Palace 15

    Looking good - but we have never won this league......
    EB Hornet and Chumlax like this.
  35. Aberystwyth_Hornet

    Aberystwyth_Hornet Squad Player

    Think we've finished bottom every year...

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