I'm fully prepared to be proven wrong by events next week but I just don't see it happening. Sunak's had a week of big ticket announcements that appear to be the reheated same old rubbish they always are. Was this really he prelude to launching a general election campaign? If so it's not really made much of an impression. Though I see Harry Cole in the Sun today is trying to puff Sunak up after this week and pretend he's turned a corner and that an election campaign in the summer where he could pin Starmer in a debate about cancelling a plane taking off at that very moment would be very effective. Seems like wishful thinking several times over to me.
Yes, but if the results are poor, Tory MPs in danger of losing their seats would surely prefer to wait just in case things get better. There’s enough of those to put significant pressure on the leadership. And if the results turn out better than expected, Sunak could conceivably call the election next week. Either way the rational choice seems to me to be to wait until after next week. Still, when has politics ever been rational?
I don't like the current person so I'm going to vote for someone even worse is an interesting tactical vote...
I'm not sure that the Tories have got on the campaign bus yet, Labour on the other hand have been actively campaigning really well for at least two year. So far they have been pretty faultless, using key paraphrases, Zombie Government, Run Out of Ideas, 14 years of failure, Party of high taxation, Hanging on, Squatting in No10, Using the union Jack as a back ground in press conferences and on leaflets. Its been really well orchestrated and well planned. Sunak would be mad to do anything before the May locals and while its kicking off in Scotland. He must know his going to take a kicking north of the boarder and if they are forced into an Scottish election up there, it will give him a real indication of just how much of a kicking and how split the voters are when it comes to the ballot box. If he calls it sooner rather than later with out a decent campaign than the blokes panicking.
A big problem for Sunak is that the Party members and conservatives more widely can’t bear him, so few will talk his initiatives up. In fact, many want him to fail so they can usher in a new dawn of real conservatism of the Farage/Truss variety, because, y’know, it’s what the Country is crying out for alongside National Service and the return of Lyons Tea Houses.
Tories grasping at straws and hoping to claim a victory this week in two mayoral contests: https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49269-west-midlands-and-tees-valley-mayoral-voting-intention The swing in Teeside towards Labour if that was the final result would still be huge, but not enough to win. I find it curious Baron Houchen of High Leven (for it is he) is allowed to stand under his normal name of Ben Houchen. He accepted the ermine from Boris, he should be forced to wear it at all times. I have a feeling his vote share would plummet if his full title was on the ballot paper.
I think there’s concern over a potential heat wave up there, so him not wearing ermine is a health issue.
It's getting interesting North of the border with Dumza Useless callign it a day. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1225498/scotland-holyrood-voting-intention/ Even with the investigations into financial irregularities and woeful managment of public services and contracts, the SNP are still hanging on by the skin of their teeth but the gap is narrowing.
This may be an outlier but it it doesn't make good reading for the Tories..... CON 18 (=) LAB 48 (+4) LIB DEM 9 (-1) REF UK 13 (-2) GRN 7 (-1) YouGov for The Times Fieldwork 7-8 May It'll be interesting to see what the polls say after the Elphicke defection.
I don't think defections move polls. Maybe a Farage from Reform to Conservative type thing would but a backbench MP who only nerds like us really know moving over isn't going to make a ripple I'd have thought. That poll is awful though and at this point I really can't work out what Sunak's strategy is. He has a right to hold off an election until January 2025 and see out the 5 year term, as various of his predecessors have done when they know deep down they'll lose the next GE. And if he's an optimist I'm sure he's hoping for a miraculous turn of events which reverses his fortunes. At this point though his base is noticeably eroding and public sentiment is so sour on the government that I think the longer he clings on, the more inclined people who were previously agnostic or apathetic about it will be to pile on to vote against the Tories. Surely he'd be better off binning it off, holding the GE, losing and then the Tories and their client media can immediately pivot into throwing faeces from the sidelines and spinning their 'things would be better if we were in power' fairytales?
I hope you are right but there is a lot of unrest about the Elphicke defection amongst "Labour supporters" online. I've read many posts claiming this is the final straw and they will now vote Green/Libs/Workers Party etc. One thing that this poll indicates is the "Rayner scandal" and Rwanda policy "progress" has not turned the tide for the Tories one iota!
Yeah, though I suspect a lot of these people have claimed the final straw several times over already! The big thing that works in Labour's favour is last week showed people are voting Labour again in serious contests and they're winning close ones, like the West Midlands and North Yorkshire. Floating voters generally gravitate towards the winning side and seeing Labour win elsewhere gives those people 'permission' to join the bandwagon. I think that effect will result in a far bigger net gain for Labour than anyone lost at the other end by Elphicke joining for 6 months.
I agree. The biggest threat to Labour now from these big poll leads is complacency and/or "protest votes". I think that's what happened with Brexit. People assumed it would be a Remain win so didn't bother voting or even voted Leave as a message to "the man". I can see some left wing Labour supporters, in particular, staying at home or voting WP or Greens because they assume Labour will get a landslide. That could end up with a LibLab coalition government which isn't a bad outcome imho anyway!
I agree the risk is complacency but as long as Rishi and his chumps keep talking up the chances of a hung Parliament they're really playing right into Labour's hands on that front. Coming out after the local election clinging to one bit of dubious prediction work by Sky was a really odd strategy.
I'd caution you to be somewhat sceptical about what you read online in social media - the paid Russian troll farms have been trying to manipulate elections for years by engaging in mock outrage, pretending that something is a step too far. So far that they are switching their vote to a non-entity party, in fact! I'm not saying that aren't legitimately people who might feel that way, just that I think they're relatively few and far between.
Plus these days the algorithms are so aggressively tuned that if you click through to one of these reactions it suddenly starts putting a load of similar ones in front you too.
It's somewhat terrifying how easy it is to fall down an extremist rabbit hole with the slightest erroneous or morbidly curious click.
What is the date for when a GE has to be arranged? I cant see Rishi or the Tories calling for an early one themselves anymore, they will just cling on for as long as they can in the hope something happens.
Rishi to start WW3 or order in some bat soup to avoid a GE? They would all be safe in a bunker somewhere either way.
And if they stick to the Thursday convention, which obviously they're not obliged to, 23 January will be the last opportunity. I still think back end of October, just before the clocks go back.
All the concern about AI…it’s the algorithms that are the real danger. I think we’ve seen evidence of the rabbit holes to which you refer on this very forum.
Whatever autumn date is most inconvenient for students, so maybe 19 or 26 September when students will have just left home and won’t be arsed to go home to vote.
That could be a factor. However, I think that if they go for the autumn it will be November. The last Thursday before the clocks go back is 24th October. The Tory party conference ends on 2 October and there is a mandatory 25 working days notice required in advance of the GE, so if RS announced it at the conference it would not happen until early November. Of course there is another election scheduled for early November!
They might and then my Nan could have had balls and could been my Grandad. Lazy feckers can barely turn up to your lectures, let alone register to vote at two addresses.
