The Championship 2020-21

Yes. Beat Luton and Millwall and we should be ok. Don’t beat either and I expect one of the other 2 will catch us. Let’s see what happens. Exciting eh ?

 

I for one completely understand what you’re saying, I won £500 betting on us to go down last season and that was after the Newcastle game because I never felt we’d stay up with the fixtures we had and the way we’re playing. I think the current expectation from most is similar, it takes into account recent form and the points gap, but it doesn’t seem to price in the fact we have our toughest sequence of 5 games all season.

 

yep at least we are playing for something , obviously prem football is what the club needs to thrive and survive but get to 40 points and the season is pretty much over, the next 5 games are worth a lot to the club

 

What amazing run of results was that? The first few games under Pearson?

I assumed beforehand you were referring to the home games against Norwich and Newcastle (the only games we won after the 3-0 against Liverpool) after which many thought we wouldn't be caught. Still, the situations aren't comparable at all. Norwich were rock bottom, all but relegated and in the middle of a ten game losing streak and we were the only team they managed to score against and they missed a sitter near the end to make it 2-2 and against Newcastle who were pretty poor and had nothing to play for we needed to come from behind to win after a very poor first half performance. Before those games we deservedly lost against midtable Burnley and Southampton in two miserable performances. We were never convincing after Liverpool so it wasn't surprising we got relegated after the other teams finally started picking up points.

Now, while I'm not saying recent performances are great by any means (apart from two moments of magic from Sarr and Sanchez's performance against reading) they're still significantly better than they were at this time last season, bearing in mind the teams we have been playing, what they have to play for and the team we have now. Not only is the points gap bigger, but we only need a minor improvement in performances to get the points we need to stay over the line, whereas last season we needed a huge upturn to stay up with the opponents we had left.

 

Anyone's bum squeaking?

 

Richard Gere

 

By the way, looks like it was a pretty feeble performance from a Wednesday side in a must-not-lose game for them (as realistically they need to have picked up at least ten points between the QPR and Derby games and Warnock is well known to be a Sheff Utd fan and he would delight in helping send them down) - only one shot on target at home against a side who have dropped points against plenty of poor sides, including in the reverse fixture which was a 1-1 draw. This time it really looks like they're doomed, and to be relegated to the third tier for the third time in less than twenty years is an absolute disgrace for a club their size - what excuse do they have now that they have a wealthy owner and their debt has been cleared?

 

Sorry, I had beans on toast earlier

 

1 Game at a time.

 

One thing is for sure - this neverending stretch of 8 days between games is a blessing for the players, and a dreadful curse for us forumites. We'll all have succumbed to the madness long before the medical team reach us.

 

I just have no idea why some people seemingly expect us to capitulate simultaneously alongside Brentford and/or Swansea becoming unstoppable. They both still have an absolute mountain to climb and every single one of their fans would swap places with us in a heart beat.

It's a case of bad memories (last seasons relegation situation really, really isn't comparable for a number of reasons) and "nothing ever goes right" over logic, form and statistics. Brentford and Swansea effectively have to go from crap to almost or completely unbeatable for another 5-6 games and we have to go from unbeatable to crap. I imagine the truth will end up sitting somewhere in the middle, and our current 6/7 point cushion will see us over the line by a good 3 or 4 points in the end.

We aren't being chased by Man City. We're being chased by two sides who thus far haven't been good enough or consistent enough to get within 6 points of us with almost 90% of the season having been played, and who have both proven themselves well capable of drawing and losing games even against the poorer sides in the division.

Put paranoia aside and focus on logic. Is it impossible they'll catch us? No. Does sensible logic dictate that it's pretty unlikely and that it's slightly ridiculous and nonsensical to assume there's a good chance it'll happen? Yes.

 

Wayne Rooney’s Derby County looking precarious after Rotherham’s win tonight.
(Stop sniggering at the back.)

 

For me, it's entirely the "nothing ever goes right" angle. I know we are in a great position, I know it would require a collapse from us and for other teams to suddenly turn their form around. But that's exactly what happened last year. Villa hadn't won in ten games, we were home and hosed with four games to go. Then they took eight points out of the last four against better teams than them and stayed up. It's very much once bitten, twice shy - probability and logic don't really come into it.

 

The thing is, we were never "home and hosed" last season at all really. It was completely different. We went 6 points clear of 18th after beating Newcastle but with Villa having two games in hand and with us having to play City and Arsenal, two teams both astronomically better than us. This season we sit 7 points clear of Swansea having played the same amount of games, and 9 ahead of Brentford with them having just one game in hand. The difference in quality between us and them is marginal but with us arguably proving ourselves to be the stronger side thus far, and the difference in points and games played is also a completely different situation to last season.

We absolutely, 100% should be beating both Luton and Millwall. That is very simple. They're both much worse football teams than us with far weaker players, and certainly in Millwall's case almost nothing to play for. In the case of s**t town they have something to play for in terms of rivalry (not that I image many of their players actually give much of a f**k about that when it comes down to it), but we have that exact some motivation AND the motivation of being promoted. Norwich and Brentford are pretty much both 50/50 games and Swansea we will probably be favourites to win, being at home. We likely won't win all three of those, but equally likely won't lose all three either.

 

And we have Foster in the squad who is the only player amongst both squads to have played in a derby with fans.

And WTE would know something about the rivalry having been a fan when younger.

 

Just watched the cycling GK and Pedro’s insta story. We’re winning on Saturday. The boys know what to do and are up for it. Team spirit is amazing.

 

I'm not saying we're up, I'm as nervous as anyone, but there's a big difference between this season and last season, and that's that we have such insane individual quality for this division that means that we are always capable of winning even when playing below our best, could you really say the same for last season? Besides, Brentford have won one in the last 5 and looked distinctly average in the four draws. I'd be very surprised if Swansea and Brentford win all their games too, the one big advantage we have over them is that our squad is deeper and we haven't run our players in to the ground, Brentford have one more game to cover than us, without their two best players

I think Villa only had one game in hand on us, but we were always at the mercy of them and Bournemouth, a surge from them from some much kinder final fixtures was always likely to put us in the **** given we had such a difficult end to the season. We were kind of in a false position being so clear at that stage, apart from Leicester on the first fixture back, I don't think we played well after the restart (and their form after the restart wasn't much better than ours) too, we never looked convincing whereas now we've had some great performances to go with the ground out wins

 

They played two games between our game against Newcastle and the one at West Ham, beating Palace at home and drawing at Everton, thereby turning a seven-point gap into a three-point gap, likewise Bournemouth made up three points on us from two games in the same period. But as you say, we were in a false position, because Villa and Muff just matched our result from the previous day in the same round of fixtures and played ahead of us in the next round. But it seems because of the timing, their largely unexpected results and the surprising nature of them (eg Muff only lost narrowly at Man City, where most were expecting them to get hammered), we crapped ourselves going into West Ham. (Of course, we might have still capitulated if results had been more favourable, because even in those wins, we weren’t playing with much confidence, but we’ll never know that for sure, and I believe the above circumstances were a major contributor to the first half collapse at the London Stadium and the ensuing defeats and seven goals conceded that saw us relegated.)

 

I know we have it our hands, but it cannot be denied that our last two performances have not been that great even though we beat Reading 2-0 we could just have easily have lost that game and as for our draw at Boro, that could also just as easily have been a defeat.

The only way either Brentford or Swansea are going to overhaul us is if we **** it up, but that's exactly what worries me, we might just do that unless we play a lot better than we did in our last two games

 

Brentford’s next 5 games are also Saturday Tuesday Saturday Tuesday Saturday. We’re the final game of that run. With so many minutes under their belt in such a short space of time, we’re the last team they will want to be playing.

We have a week off before we play them. They play Rotherham the Tuesday before us. They won’t be able to focus on us until Wednesday. Plus they might pick up a few knocks or injuries or suspensions in that game. You just never know.

 

Hard to tell how many goals we’ll concede over this upcoming tough run of games but we’re on track in terms of goals conceded per game to have one of the best defensive records in Championship history.

So far we’ve conceded 27, with five games left to play.

If we somehow concede only 2 (or fewer) goals, we’ll have the best defensive record in Championship history (I.e. since the EFL’s top division was rebranded as the Championship in 2004)

If we concede 3 goals, we will equal the best defensive record achieved in Championship history (PNE in 2005-6)

If we concede 4 goals, we will equal the best defensive record in the Championship since PNE in 2005-6 (Aitor Karanka’s Boro in 2015-16)

Only four teams in Championship history have conceded fewer than 35 goals in a Championship season. The two sides mentioned above, 2005-6 champions Reading and 2010-11 champions QPR. Norwich and or Swansea could also achieve this feat this season.

Our defence deserves more credit - it’s not just quite solid or reliable.

 

When we were sixth or seventh I was thinking that we should still make the automatic spots, even though results nor performances looked good, I felt that we would get it together and play more like our potential, and we did. We turned it around.

If we now only look at retaining our second spot the position is reversed, the odds are strongly in our favour. But we could still drop back, as every game is winnable and loseable - it all depends on the players mindset (firstly), their performance and then a host of factors such as referee decisions, injuries, and fine margins such as whether a shot flies six inches to the right or left as it heads towards a post. At this stage, if feel we could win or lose any of our remaining games, and so could any of the other three teams we are interested in.

We have 15 odd games of interest now, and trying to predict each game with all the factors above is pretty much "finger in the air" and it takes too much nervous energy.

So that is why I don't bother.

For players, excess nervous energy is dangerous. It reduces focus on the task at hand.

And that is why I hope our players and coaches keep their minds on something simple, their individual performance in each game as it comes.

 

It's pressure from beneath which has got Swansea and Brentford winning again. Would be much better if they had been comfortably in the POs with no prospect of being caught and looking at a huge seemingly insurmountable gap above them.
We're still favourites but we need to beat Luton and Millwall. I don't think B&S will both win all their remaining games but wouldn't surprise me if at least one of them did up to the time we play them. Which means we need the points in the bag before then to render those 2 matches meaningless.

 

It is exactly like last year in one way. Our gap looking like it'll be enough and thinking whilst possible, its unlikely the 2 teams below will turn it around.

The difference is we can extend that lead quite comfortably this time.

 

Our players have given no indication that they will inexplicably down tools and not show up for the last few games of the season.

They all want to get out of the championship

While you can't count your chickens and all that, I see no reason to think we won't carry on good form until the end of the season

 

W, D, W is the best we can hope for in our next 3 and should be more than achievable. With Swansea and Brentford winning again it’s likely at least 1 of them might be in with a shot with those final 2 games to play, but we’ll be in a good position if we go into them on 87 points.

 

Playing badly and beating a more than decent Reading team is a positive sign, surely. I don't think our last four performances have been great but in that time we've picked up three wins and a draw.

If we turn it on again we will piss the rest of the season. I don't think we will turn it on again so it comes down to grinding out results. Saturday is a big test of that - a mid table team who will be desperate to stop us, they will waste as much time as possible and play very deep to try and draw/nick a win. A game pf patience is required.

 

That’s put the mockers on that then. 3-0 Scum.

 

I think the last 2 results for Swansea and Brentford's demolition of Preston shows that we are not going to get an easy ride to the auto's. But it was never going to be easy. False security was given over the Brentford and Swansea stumbles and people thought it would continue.

However, we can comfort ourselves with knowing even if we do screw up some of the remaining games, as long as we beat either Millwall or Luton, no matter what we do in the other games, and even if Swansea and Brentford win all their games, we'll still go up if we beat Brentford or Swansea over the final couple of games.(ok Brentford could still pip us on GD in that scenario but they couldn't score more points)

Ideally we'd like to pick up a couple of wins before then and hope they lose at least one game or draw a couple. We're in the box seat for sure, and one little slip up from either of them really hands the initiative to us even further.

Could it go horribly wrong, of course it could, and some fans will already be thinking this way and it's easy to think like that given Watford's ability to royally mess up, but if we don't make it from the position we're in now, then we weren't really good enough after all.

 

That would of course be excellent and as you say is the best we can hope for.
D, L, W also entirely possible and would be less excellent.
I'm not sure why anyone (not you!) thinks the fact we have beaten the likes of rotherham, wycombe, preston, derby, bristol city, birmingham, SW etc in the last few months is relevant to our away game at Norwich or home games to B&C, the 3 best sides in the league other than us. 3 very tough games if there is anything riding on them for our opponents.
Must win on Saturday and vs Millwall.

 

No it isn’t.

But it’s probably the most we will get.

 

The reality is you’ll get lots of reasons and excuses why those games aren’t hard, the most bizarre to me being we beat Norwich twice last season and would be our easiest game next season? The reality is the win and the loss to Norwich and Swansea came in Munoz’s first two games, so you can take about as much from the win as you can from the defeat, in other words not a lot. Brentford absolutely hammered us first half (the best by a country a mile any team has looked against us this season, but to be fair we were much better second half) so again the jury is still somewhat out on that and how we really will perform against the really good teams. The reality is we’re flat track bullies, but the reality is also that teams with a few points less than us or a few points more will be a different proposition altogether.

 

If we get 4 points from next 3 we are still 1 ahead of Brentford when we play them, if they win thier next 4.