The Championship 2020-21

Exactly this. The boys will know they are nearly there after tonight’s results. We have an 8 day break after Reading before we play Lut*n. No need to worry about recovery. Got to go full steam ahead against Reading and leave exhausted. We must press them, bully them and fight for everything.

No excuse for our boys to not be fired up now.

 

Norwich need 5 points to clinch promotion, so if they win their next two then they are already up by the time we go there.

For sure they will want to beat us to make sure of the title, but equally they could all be a bit hungover, metaphorically or literally!

 

Danger Mouse, Cosgrove!
In one way or another I am a am a massive Brum City fan.


Blast!

 

Having few accomplishments worrying about Watford is one thing I do well.so I shall continue!
I must confess to feeling a teensy bit more comfortable tonight,especially as I have now thawed out from the snow at 7.30pm on court!
I would like to claim a small part in Brum's point. I wore blue underwear and blue socks today ( plus other garments too!)
It had to be done!

 

Honestly the way Brentford and Swansea are going we could probably get away with being promoted with another 5 or 6 points. They're both playing horrendously.

 

Deeney.

 

Let’s be honest, the results for us and our rivals in the last few weeks have been beyond our wildest dreams.

It’s not over but we are in a far better position than we could have ever imagined.

 

Good Grief!

 

I would like Brentford to go up in play offs, but would prefer if they dont so we may have a chance of buying Toney ,although the chances of Gino forking out £30 mill is not great.

 

Its because its a **** league.

The fact that the dross starts from 3rd place shows you how utterly nonsensical our dire drab defensive ivicball was in the first half of the season. Had we played with a bit of dynamism at all we would have walked it and Norwich would be chasing us.

 

I said a point away at ‘Boro is always a good point. It looks a helluva lot better now!

Birmingham City Football Club - I doff my hat to you this evening. Giving us a morale & goal difference enhancing three points the other week, before taking points off both of our promotion rivals. Superb work. Good luck for the rest of the season.

On to Reading now. Let’s try and sew this up prior to playing our closer competitors.

Worst case scenario, we are now 6 points clear with the better goal difference, and 6 to play.

 

In fairness, as it stands, if it comes down to goal difference, Brentford would have the advantage, would be nice if we could pick up an 11-0 win somewhere, be even nicer if it comes at the Kennel!

 

Brentford won't make the play offs. Swansea are out of the running for top 2. Nobody is catching us. Enjoy!

 

Worst case scenario is we lose at Brentford and if we do the goal difference swings. We have to be 90% to go up though. There's too many variables that need to happen for it to be possible we don't.

 

Why would Brentford have the advantage in regards to goal difference when they're 4 behind us?

 

Is the assumption that if Brentford catch up with us points wise, they will almost certainly overtake us in terms of goal difference.

 

If they win game in hand minimum 3 behind. If they beat us 1 behind. If they win and we lose another game (meaning they go level on points) they would by virtue of catching us have better GD. Unless we tonk someone along the way.

 

Not necessarily. Could quite easily be that they scrape a few 1 goal wins and we go and beat someone 3 or 4. It's not a given that if they were to catch us on points they'd automatically have a better goal difference, but it'd certainly be close.

 

Just put the figures into the hornpete supercomputer...

Chances of Brentford beating Watford.... 24%

Chances of Brentford winning thier game in hand....38%

Chances of Brentford bettering our results in the other 5 games by 3 or more points.... 20%

Chances of beating our goal difference should the above occur... 87%

So as you can see. Only a 13% chance we are going up (100-87). Hopefully Deeney will be fit soon.

 

Zero chance of us buying Toney. Too expensive and he'd want to go to a better team, not one that would be odds on to be relegated.

 

Yep. He'll end up somewhere like West Ham, Villa, maybe Wolves.

 

Toney is too expensive, besides other PL clubs will be sniffing when Brentford fail to go up. I saw it mentioned elsewhere, here (?) and thought Giovanni Simeone was a good shout at the sort of striker we might go for.

 

Spot on.

The contortionist calculus we're getting sucked into distracts from the spectacle. When on a roller coaster, best to enjoy it and judge it in hindsight than spend the whole ride calculating the likelihood of the ride falling apart.

 

Toney absolutely screams West Ham mega-bid

 

Toney would be way to expensive for us (Unless Elton buys him, but that would put quite a hole in EJ's personal fortune)

 

I've been one of the biggest worriers on here, going through all the permutations but tonight was Brentford's big chance. If they'd won tonight, it really could've flicked a switch on for them but they can't see this than anything other than an enormous opportunity missed. Now let's put our proverbial foot on their neck and dispatch Reading, then it really will be job done.

 

Would be a huge psychological blow for Brentford.

 

I'm feeling excited and rather nervous about the season right now.

Both are feelings I was certainly not expecting to have at the halfway point of the season.

In itself that's good as a fan and a pleasant surprise; achieving promotion from the position we were in would be fantastic.

Just a shame we won't be at the games to see what happens.

 

Why? It might mean Bournemouth get into the playoffs!

 

Let's start chalking them off one by one. These are the teams that could still mathematically overhaul us, with the maximum points tallies they could achieve:

Brentford: 91 points
Swansea: 90 points
Barnsley & Bournemouth: 89 points
Reading: 84 points

Watford's current total: 79 points

Current requirement: 4 wins, 1 draw to be mathematically assured of promotion.

 

Great Gino . Thanks for leaking your transfer strategy on the forum .

 

Or three wins and three draws will be enough, because that will mean Brentford will drop points and will only manage 88/89 points max, and Swansea won't catch us either.

 

I think people are over estimating how desirable a top s championship striker is to EPL club .

Ollie Watkins only went to Villa who at the time were amongst favourites to go down.

Vydra only went to WBA and failed .

Gray only went to Burnley and failed .

It’s quite rare for a top championship striker to succeed at high level in EPL. Bamford I guess but only at the umpteenth time of trying.

Callum Wilson is another , who may well get relegated with Newcastle after getting relegated with The Scum.

Oh and Deeney who has been stealing a wage for several years now .

As good as he has been , it would be a Big step up for Toney if he plays in The Prem after just one good season in the championship .

Gino would never fork out 30 mill for him anyway ,but it would still be a risk.