The Final Games

Not when teams are fighting to stay up they aint, therefore two of those games could be real banana skins for them.

 

Wycombe are gone, Sheffield Wednesday probably will be by then, Millwall are 10th and have sod all to play for.

 

What are Norwich's fixtures? That's the only club I'm looking at.

 

Just had a look. Norwich's fixtures are arguably tougher than ours.

Bournemouth are great against top teams, us three days later, then Reading, then away at an in form Barnsley on the final day.

 

Yellow and black? Just cruising...

 

Oh please let this be! Add to that, Swansea have stuttering end to the season and our team made up of largely U-23 players beat them on the final day and they miss out on playoffs. Only downside may be that Bournemouth get in as a result.


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If we go up, I'd actually love to see Swansea go up with us, would be one relegation spot nailed down before the season starts

 

Very true. Not convinced by VAR yet but it would put an end to their cheating ways.

 

Are we really going to stoke up an artificial rivalry with Swansea now to follow the one with Bournemouth?

 

Well it’s possible the Bournemouth one may be coming to an end. Depends if we get promoted and if Swansea join us I guess. If we don’t go up the old rivalry is back and next time our town will get wrecked so no need for this pretend rivalry.


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Well let's look at the one with Bournemouth, artificial as it may be, there's been lots of needle between the two of us, feisty games, a title race which went to the final minutes of the season, and generally being very close to each other for the past 7 years. What do we have against Swansea? OK, we're in a battle with them now, but there hasn't been anywhere near as much needle, and let's see how our league positions pan out at the end of the season

 

The Run In: -

I am going to estimate the points as I type to try and get a realistic outcome.

WATFORD
Boro away 1pt
Reading home 3pts
Luton away 1pt
Norwich away 1pt
Millwall home 3pts
Brentford away 1pt
Swansea home 3pts
TOTAL 13 points

SWANSEA
PNE home 3pts
Millwall away 1pt
Sheff Wed away 3pts
Wycombe home 3pts
QPR home 3pts
Reading away 1pt
Derby home 3pts
Watford away 0pts
TOTAL 17 points

BRENTFORD
Huddersfield away 1pt
Birmingham home 3pts
PNE away 1pt
Millwall home 3pts
Cardiff home 3pts
Bournemouth away 1pt
Rotherham home 3pts
Watford home 1pt
Bristol city away 3pts
TOTAL 19pts

If this scenario were to happen, and I think it is not an unreasonable scenario in fact I think if anything I have been generous to our opponents in some cases, then the final points for each team would be: -

WATFORD 91 points (current GD + 30)

SWANSEA 86 points (current GD +15)

BRENTFORD 87 points (current GD +26)

THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT THE FUTURE IS YELLOW​

 

In your scenario we will be on 88 points and Swansea will be on 86 before that last match. That is going to be one nervy game if it does come down to a winner takes all!

 

Personally I can’t see everyone going unbeaten until the final day.

 

Swansea to win 5 of their last 8? They're in dreadful form and don't score many at all. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if they end up in a battle for 6th.

 

13 points over 7 games is one less than our overall running rate, However we are on form and achieving much more than first part of the season having just won 10 out of 11, I think it unlikely we will only win 3 out of the next 7!

 

Personally think we’ll beat Luton. No crowd and they really aren’t that good. Sure if they can get up for the “big M1 derby” this time they may pose a problem but they’re already in the nothing to play for position. Norwich are head and shoulders the best team this season. Yes, they’ve dropped points recently but if they have their shooting boots on I think they beat us, possibly quite handily as well (Hope not obviously).

Sheff Wed will beat Swansea if they play like they did yesterday. Decent passing team and had two great chances to score against the tightest defence in the division.

Will be interesting how the games pan out though. Never confident of predicting myself and certainly don’t want to jinx it!


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Impossible to predict from week to week but promotion firmly in our hands now

 

I don't want to attempt to predict individual games as I think just about any Championship game is competitive and can go either way.

What I really hope though is we are still in second place come the last day and Swansea are too far behind but are safely in the playoffs.

If we do need points in that game it will be helpful if they are resting players and not too competitive because they are saving themselves for the playoffs.

 

We’re in a great position but a lot can change especially with a run 5 out of our final 7 games being against much better teams than we’ve beaten on our good run. If Brentford win their two games in hand (big if obviously) then we have a 3 point advantage over them and still have to play them. They’ll catch us by beating us and matching exactly what we do, so it’s far, far from over yet.

 

We'd have a 4 point advantage.

 

Yes, apologies.

I still think it’s a long way from over though. Last season Brentford had a run of 5 games without a win, then won 8 on the bounce scoring 20 in the process, to then lose their final 2 when it really mattered in games that would’ve seen them promoted. They’ve had a 21-game unbeaten streak this season and beaten Southampton, West Brom, Newcastle and Fulham in the cup, so they’re absolutely no mugs and more than capable of putting a a run together and taking advantage of any slip-ups that we might have along the way.

 

Thanks for that Mr Jelly.

 

I think yesterday showed that no game will be easy for any of the teams chasing promotion. We could have easily dropped points to a poor Wednesday team and Swansea lost to an even worse Birmingham team. I wouldn't like to predict any of our results from now until the end of the season but if Swansea and Brentford could lose a few that would be a great help!

 

I actually agree, but I was trying to allow for anomalies. I think we will can afford to lose two games and still get promoted especially if Brentford do not win today.

 

Head and shoulders? Completely disagree. Norwich had a team with stability from the start of the season that's why they have a lead on us nothing more. There isn't too much between the sides either way, certainly not 'head and shoulders'. If you were going to create a best 11 from the 2 sides it would include at a minimum Sarr, Hughes, Chalobah, Kiko, Sieralta and JP.

I can see us being within 3 points of them and it going down to the final day.

 

Oh I don’t know. Yes we are vastly improved as a team and many of our players may make up a lot of a mixed 11 of the two teams but Norwich tend to control games and create a lot more. Not sure how much they’ve used a settled 11. The one thing always said is our squad, when fit, is the strongest in the league which I think is fair but Norwich have a great first 11 and play great attacking football. Quite how they didn’t win by 3 or more yesterday is anyone’s guess. Nerves, lethargy, off day?

Most times I’ve watched they’ve looked very good and even though we’ve eaten into it they’re still 6 points clear at the top and on course to get promotion with something like 5-6 games remaining.

We are still a bit hot and cold although can’t argue much with the run we’re on. Will be a tough game. Not saying we cannot win it or that we are that much poorer, only that Norwich are a level above pretty much the whole division.


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Norwich fixtures
HUD (H) day after us
Derby (a) day after us
Muff (h) later ko same day
Watford (h)
QPR (a) same time ko
Reading (h) ko is same time as of now but I guess potential to be moved for tv
Barnsley (a)

Ours
Boro (a)
Reading (h)
Scum (a)
Norwich (a)
Mill (h)
Brentford (a)
Swans (h)

Looking at that these next 2 games could really benefit us with the earlier ko as puts pressure on the budgies if/when/once we’ve picked up max points.
Our derby fixture same week they have a tough one home to muff both games could go either way. But realistically muff harder game than scum.
Could be very interesting by the time we play each other and then similar games against play off hopefuls for last 2 and a mid table team a piece.
We can do this.


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They start after us in the first three fixtures you list. Can they start after us in the fourth one?

 

Can everyone just **** off with all this Brentford and Norwich are far better than us nonsense. Honestly.

 

Not sure anybody has said that especially not about Brentford

 

The only thing that could probably derail us from this point is losing key players.

My top three we don't want to lose are: Hughes, Sierralta and Chalobah. We need to wrap these three guys in cotton wool for the final 7 games.

 

Yes I agree. I would add Sarr to the list though as he puts the wind up the oppo before they even get on the pitch.

The Borough game would be great to win as that then leaves 3 very winnable games which with a couple of draws would see us over the line..