Do we have any chance whatsoever?

I had some spare time on my hands so decided to look at just what chance we actually had of staying up.

I’m hoping to achieve the following from this post:

• Be called a happy clapper
• Generally be abused for wasting my time
• To be called out as we actually have a 0% chance of staying up

If you care, at the end of this post I’ve given a little summary of how the analysis works. Basically it takes our current position and predicts our final points and position a thousand times to a come with % likely outcomes.

The reason it useful to take this approach is that whilst some of football is predictable, it is also a very random. Whatever the exact number, we have lost points to VAR the season – regardless of how well we played in a game. Who would have predicted Man City would have picked up one point against Norwich and Newcastle? This is compounded by the fact that statistically there is not that many games to consider now, 24 games left, so even a few random results could have a big impact.

So here is the outcome under two scenarios

Same current general form

Let’s assume as a team we generally perform as we have now. I’m not talking about extrapolating our points, but generally performing as we have. Not surprisingly it doesn’t make happy viewing.

• We have just a 6% chance of staying up
• And over a 60% chance of finishing bottom

This should come of no surprise. We would need to be very lucky to stay up if we don’t have a big change.



We pick up our form to be top of the bottom half

Okay, but what about if we pick up form to be as good as the teams at the top of bottom half (think Bournemouth/Newcastle)? What does that do? I chose this metric as some have said we need to have champions league qualifying football to have chance of surviving, so I thought it would be interesting to try this small step up, to where we have previously performed. I guess I assume this is the best we could expect from a new manager coming in and getting us to perform at a good, but not unrealistic, level.

• We have a 47% chance of staying up
• Finishing bottom is still the most likely outcome

How it works
Every remaining premier league games is predicted (not just he Watford ones). Obviously how good the teams are is built in. Also a home advantage, assuming a similar benefit from the 5 premier league seasons is built in. Finally, a random factor is added - to reflect real life improbability. Then - it is all repeated 1,000 ti
mes (aka Monte Carlo analysis)

 

That's a 'no' then David?!

 

A probably no! Unless we get a half decent manager

 

Oh bother!

 

It will still be a shock if we go down as we've got some of the best players we've ever had in our history in the squad.

Amazing the owners have ***qed up so badly really.

 

It really wouldn't have taken that many good decisions to keep us safe. Sadly they didn't take them.

 

True, but neither did the VAR refs.

 

Sure we do. There are a few final throws of the dice and we have to start getting them right, the new coach and new signings. We also need a little luck.

But it wouldn’t have taken much to get a few wins out of those last games and it only takes a few wins to be competitive again. Will we is another matter.

 

Agreed. If we pick up to average form it is 50:50/ I'd take that right now!

 

We've been shafted - but we have also been crap.

 

What worries me more than our form is that all the teams we need to do badly seem to be picking up points against supposedly top teams. It's infuriating.

 

Well, we have some players with good skills, so maybe the trick is to apply those skills in the correct way - and that requires attention from both those players and the coach, whoever it turns out to be. The owners might also consider whether their own modus operandi enables the coaches to work to their full abilities.
We also have players with skill-insufficiencies. Which ones? Reading this forum quite often, I don't believe there is a single player in the squad who has not been rubbished here, often frequently, often in utterly scathing terms and often foully. Some of this criticism is justified and quite a lot of it is utter rubbish.
I suspect the ***q-ups have been many and varied, but that, this season, too many of them have come together all at the same time, creating a 'perfect storm' of failure. In all probability we could have a load of perverse fun trying to itemize them.

 

There is such a thing as 5th season syndrome after all.

All very sad really. Club have fallen to absolute bits, lowest point in recent club history.

But I say this as a man born from his mother, if the club & players are reading this & you can somehow pull it off, against all the odds, I will stand at the alter & believe in god, because it would have been sent by GT in heaven.

 

Yep. But the analysis I did does help to show we don't need to worry about other teams if put our own house in order. I didn't post the graphs of the points we would pick up as I thought it was too much info.

But it does tend to always even out over what we have seen over the last 20 years. 40 points and we are basically safe. 36 points and we have a good chance.

The question is can we, with a new manager, reach that target.

 

See who they get in and what we do in January, I dont think all is quite lost yet, like I said depends who they get in first of all. A lot of neutrals still believe we will get out of trouble which is a good sign.

 

I'm too dim to fully understand statistical analysis, but your 47% survival chance feels about right to be. Obviously a couple more defeats in a row will change matters quite a bit... If only we'd hung on v Southampton

 

Possibly, I’d need to check out the underlying data. I’d assume the model doesn’t predict too many points vs Leicester. So this game won’t determine our our season.

I’ll do some digging to see what we would likely need from our next 4 games to have a chance of survival (as the next four games are tricky).

But you are right, every defeat now ratchets up the difficulty of keeping in touch.

 

I've asked Richard Hendricks of Pied Piper to run an algorithm. After hours of number crunching, he came back with a total of 33 points.

 

There's no doubt a chance, a slim chance I may add. Get Big Sam in with a massive incentive on survival. Back him in January. It's honestly the only way I can see it happening. The guy is a winner and that's what's needed. A gamble yes but s h I t it's not my cash.

 

We need to win at least 10 of the last 24 games

Crystal Palace H W
Man Utd H W
Sheff Utd A W
Villa H W
Wolves H W
Bournemouth A W
Villa A W
Everton H W
Brighton A W
Palace A W
Burnley A W
Southampton H W
Norwich H W
Newcastle H W
West Ham A W

In my opinion there is 15 winnable games left. With our squad and the right appointment we can survive. It’s all about the right appointment.

 

During commentary on the Soton game it was mentioned that only two clubs had survived in the PL in 27 seasons from the position we are in - actually I took encouragement from this - I would have guessed it was zero......

 

if they pick the wrong guy we r fuct. so much is riding on who they choose!

 

Big decision time for Mr. Pozzo. We really can’t afford to get it wrong. It has to be someone that will inspire the players and give them a kick up the bum.

 

I cant see any way of getting out of the hole we're in- these players don't have the fight in them. Gerry D and Bobby P are already wondering how much a Chinese mansion will cost. Sarr's therapist is already trying to convince him this is all a bad dream. Doucs and Capoue are spending their spare time making kissy faces at Moshiri outside his condo. We're down and I think we're probably ****ed.

 

Yes, we'll survive with ease.

 

The fabled new manager bounce is a bit of a myth, it only works in certain circumstances, if the players had completely stopped playing for Quique then we might see it, but I don’t think that was the case.

Any manager we bring in now may take 5-10 games to turn it around and start picking up half decent results on a regular basis. You can’t really expect any new manager to make an immediate positive impact, therefore based on knowing our owners I’d say we are all but doomed.

There are only a few exceptions to the above, BSF is one of them, but they won’t go for him.

 

Agreed that the new manager bounce is not that true. But of course a good choice of new manager can have an impact. I think it is unlikely the Pozzo’s will pick/find someone that will bring us up to the level we need. Shame they stuffed it up by re-hiring QSF - then half decent pick would have given us the edge to stay up.

 

The board has made this club what it is today, but they've also derailed it with their shambolic handling of this season. So many amateur mistakes. I never thought I would ever be critical of them, but their clever and insightful approach has just evaporated right in front of my very eyes.

1. Not investing correctly in out problem area, defence
2. Spending all summer chasing Sarr and blowing the entire budget on him.
3. After sacking Gracia, hiring a previous failed coach in Flores.
4. Now after sacking Flores, they are clearly struggling to find another coach. Maybe finally, the reputation of hire and fire has caught up with them. Nobody of any worth seems to want to work for them as they know they'd get virtually no understanding or time after the first bad run of results.

I'm sure more things have contributed to this, but these are the key events that come to my mind. Sarr of course may come good, and what I saw of him in the first half against Southampton was promising, but the transfer fee of £30-40m was sheer lunacy. He's got to improve a hell of a lot before we make any money back on him.

Who thought an aging defence, which was always poor in the first place, could get away with another season? Why didn't they look at the facts, look at the results and form. Why couldn't they see the problem?

Who in their right mind thought Flores would be the answer. Sure, I thought he did a great job in the first season, but only for the first 20 games. After that, we fell off a cliff in terms of form. His method was sussed out for the second round of games and it was a relief when he left in the end. So why on earth did they think time was a great healer? It was another ridiculous decision. When you're in trouble and the team need kick starting, you need a personality to create a reaction, not another nice guy.

For this season, the board, owners have been completely inept and are reaping the reward for failure. This is not Gracia's fault, it's not Flores' fault, the blame lies firmly at their door.

 

So if we do survive, it will be one of the greatest survival acts in Premier League history. Well at least that would be something to brag about. I predict thirty points in the bag with five games to go . Meaning we need two wins and two draws before our final game against Citeh. It will be the hope that kills us in the end!

 

I really wanted to disagree with this but unfortunately I can't.
In tennis I wonder on a daily basis how people come to their decisions,they are inexplicable,so too it seems with Watford.
Many warned of the frailties and now they have been proved correct.
It is very unedifying and needs to be arrested immediately.
Merry ****ing Christmas everyone!

 

Yep; the Burnley game was always losable but the Southampton defeat was a killer - poor performance and a disastrous result. After that (those substitutions!) QSF had to go. But, if only he had gone after Burnley, maybe Mullins could have got a win with them; Saints were a desperate shower and there for the taking.

 

In a nutshell.
They were all over the place in the first half,their fans were fighting amongst themselves I'm told and the atmosphere was putrid.
That is when you put the knife in,3-0 game over.
That game has extinguished all hope I'm afraid.

 

The only way out for me now is to create an environment where the players are told they have a chance and take up the challenge to fight for every point - and do it trying to win with a smile instead of a slow death grind. QSF clearly didnt believe in them and didn't give them the belief in themselves.

If that changes (and quickly) we have a chance, we also have players who could pull it off if they find some form.

 

I agree that they're all mistakes (apart from perhaps Sarr), but I do think mistake number 1 (not investing properly in the defence since... well ever) was the first domino that knocked over the rest to get us to this point today. Javi had us playing some decent football, the team liked him, he seemed to work well in the structure, he should have been our manager for some time to come. Everything however was undermined by the inadequacy of our defence. The leaking of goals leading to bad results shredded our confidence and it was all downhill from there. We were still attacking fairly well under Javi, just not having the confidence / composure to put the ball in the back of the net.

Of course under Quique it was a whole different set of problems, mainly imo to do with his tactics.

But I can't help but feeling that if the Pozzos had just invested in, say, two good defenders over the last couple of years, all of this season's woes could have been avoided. I do think it boils down to that. Yes there's a few other things that could have helped too (I've felt that we've been missing mentally strong characters in general from the squad for years), but defence was the one that did it for us.

 

We were linked with Maguire. We were linked with Rose. We were linked with Kim-Min-Jae. We were linked with Todibo. We were linked with Ozan Kabak. We were linked with Webster.

Yet we still roll out Mariappa, Holebas and co every. week. It’s f*cking embarrassing. Where the club has gone wrong is blindingly obvious. Every other mistake since leads back to that and compounds it further.

Don’t get me wrong - I’m glad we found out the nature of Silva’s character. But I honestly think the whole thing can be traced that far back. He knew exactly what the squad needed. And Gino and Giraldi thought they knew better. And still do. They are reaping what they’ve sown.