This is so much better than working out how many points do we need to stay up. So who will finish 7th this season? 7th Wolves 43 points Chelsea (a ), Arsenal (h ), Man Utd (h ), Burnley (a ), Southampton (a ), Brighton (h ), Watford (a ), Fulham (h ), Liverpool (a ) 8th Watford 43 points Man City (a ), Man Utd (a ), Fulham (h ), Southampton (h ), Huddersfield (a ), Wolves (h ), Arsenal (h ), Chelsea (a ), West Ham (h ) 9th West Ham 39 points Cardiff (a ), Huddersfield (h ), Everton (h ), Chelsea (a ), Man Utd (a ), Leicester (h ), Spurs (a ), Southampton (h ), Watford (a ) 10th Everton 37 points Newcastle (a ), Chelsea (h ), West Ham (a ), Arsenal (h ), Fulham (a ), Man Utd (h ), Palace (a ), Burnley (h ), Spurs (a ) 11th Leicester 35 points Fulham (h ), Burnley (a ), Bournemouth (h ), Huddersfield (a ), Newcastle (h ), West Ham (a ), Arsenal (h ), Man City (a ), Chelsea (h ) Right now it looks like a straight shootout between us and Wolves, but there are always twists and turns, so here are the clubs I think you have to say are in the running. Watford and Wolves have similar looking fixtures. We both have 4 top six clubs to play. Our home match with them could be hugely significant. Of the others, West Ham have to make up 4 points and have three very tough away games against top six clubs. Everton have to make up 6 points and have 4 top six clubs still to play. Leicester have a slightly easier looking run-in but they have to make up the most points, being 8 points behind us. From what I can see, I would say we should be favourites to get it. 5 home games in the last 7 is significant. Put it this way, we probably won't have a better chance to do it than this season.
Looking at those fixtures Leicester would have to get way past us considering before their last 3 fixtures.
I find it quite incredible that we have been almost a mirror of Wolves in results looking at the table. They have done incredible in their first season I do think personally its between us, Wolves and Spam. Everton are too inconsistant, and I feel Leicester have too much ground to make up. Its going to be an exciting end to the season thats for sure.
Just fast forwarding 2 matches, it's easy to predict that West Ham will go above us. However, their hard matches a further on, so I suspect we'll overtake them again after their match at Old Trafford. So if West Ham do overtake us, there's no need for concern. It's all budgeted for
I think whoever gets a "freak" result in the top 6 games will do it. Very exciting set of fixtures there especially having to play both teams around us. Personally I think we'll fall just short and finish 8th, as I fancy Wolves to beat Arsenal at home. Plus years of always, always falling short...
Yes you could be right. However, Watford are extremely consistent at getting results against teams outside of the top six. Where we've failed is we've lost 7 out of 8 matches against the top six, so that's where our problems lie. We seem to fall well short against these sides. So of our 9 remaining matches, 4 are against the top six. I don't fancy our chances of getting anything in any of the away games, however, Arsenal won't fancy coming to Vicarage Road. If we consider 5 are very winnable, and one is a potential upset, that should be enough. But we do have to get those wins against all the other sides outside of the top six. A tall order, but you don't qualify for Europe by getting poor results.
My thoughts exactly, if we can win those two games, do well in the rest of our home fixtures, we could almost write off the away matches as long as we don't get thrashed by anyone. I think we are capable of getting at least 15 points from our remaining fixtures, assuming 6 pts from our home games with Wolves and the Spammers, which as I said will be the key games. Therefore providing we win those games I would expect Wolves to get a possible 14pts and Spammers a possible 15pts. which would see us finishing in 7th spot providing no one else goes on a 9 game winning streak and over hauls us all.
As I mentioned previously, I think there will be some twists and turns along the way. I can see West Ham overtaking us in the next two matches. After that, I believe we have a better run-in than any other club. We have 5 of the remaining 7 at home. We have to play West Ham and Wolves, so it's up to us to see if we are capable of doing it. I don't see a challenge coming from Everton, however, Leicester could go on a very good run. Their next 5 are all very winnable, however, their last 4 do look difficult which may just derail them at the final hurdle. Personally, I think Wolves will drop a few points. I don't see them getting anywhere near 14 points from their last 9 games. I think West Ham will be our biggest rivals, and it could mean our final game is a big match. Watford v West Ham and the winners will get to Europe.
So difficult to predict but I would say I don't think Leicester will be in the running. 8 points to make up on both us and Wolves I think is too much. I think it's between us, Wolves and West Ham but god knows who will get it. You're right though HB1, this us far nicer than looking games to win to stay up, not that I thought we would go down at any point in the last 4 seasons.
I think we will go and beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. We've been fairly close the last three seasons and Hazard apart were not far off in terms of quality. By the time we play them their season could be over.
This would be my prediction of likely results:- 7th Wolves 43 points Chelsea (a ) 0, Arsenal (h ) 1, Man Utd (h ) 0, Burnley (a ) 1, Southampton (a ) 3, Brighton (h ) 3, Watford (a ) 0, Fulham (h ) 3, Liverpool (a ) 0 = 11 Final points total 54 8th Watford 43 points Man City (a ) 0, Man Utd (a ) 0 , Fulham (h ) 3, Southampton (h ) 3, Huddersfield (a ) 3, Wolves (h ) 3, Arsenal (h ) 1, Chelsea (a ) 0, West Ham (h ) 3 = 16 Final points total 59 9th West Ham 39 points Cardiff (a ) 3, Huddersfield (h ) 3, Everton (h ) 3, Chelsea (a ) 0, Man Utd (a ) 0, Leicester (h ) 3, Spurs (a ) 0, Southampton (h ) 3, Watford (a ) 0 = 15 Final points total 54 10th Everton 37 points Newcastle (a ) 1, Chelsea (h ) 0, West Ham (a ) 0, Arsenal (h ) 0, Fulham (a ) 3, Man Utd (h ) 0, Palace (a ) 0, Burnley (h ) 3, Spurs (a ) 0 = 7 Final points total 44 11th Leicester 35 points Fulham (h ) 3, Burnley (a ) 3, Bournemouth (h ) 3, Huddersfield (a ) 3, Newcastle (h ) 3, West Ham (a ) 0, Arsenal (h ) 1, Man City (a ) 0, Chelsea (h ) 0 = 16 Final points total 51 In this scenario we could probably draw against Wolves and West Ham and still come 7th. However, if we lose to just one of them it could provide the points swing which stops us.
I like these predictions. I think the toughest game to predict, though, is our home game against Wolves, which is also arguably the fixture that carries the balance in all this.
I think some on here are not giving Wolves record against top 6 sides enough credit. I’d suggest they are far more likely than us to at least nick a point or two against them in their remaining games. Liverpool will probably be totally shot by the time that last game rolls around.
Just as a quick aside on the subject of Wolves. The love in reached new heights a few weeks back when the question was asked, “are they the best team to have been promoted to the Prem?” A few options were put forward such as Sunderland and Newcastle, but you know the whole thing is a load of smoke blowing ***** when they completely ignore the Reading team who still hold the record points tally and went on to finish 8th in their first season. A few down my neck of the woods were a bit miffed and for once I didn’t blame them.
If we finish 7th, is it too late for us to be labelled Team of the Teenies and become everyone's second favourite club?
Personally I think Gino should do a dodgy with the Sheikh at Man City.... Let them batter us 20-0 and improve their goal difference immeasurably for the PL in return for letting us win the cup. That being said, they’d probably say no and beat us 21-0 anyway.
That Reading team was terrific but of course didn’t have the exotic Portugueseness of Wolves that the media fawn over.
HB1 I think you overestimate both ours and Wolves results which are likely to be effected by a potential run in the cup. I do see West Ham as a danger as they seem to raise their performances against better opposition. While I hope we can win 5 of our last 9 I just don't see it happening. I suspect we will finish on 54 or 55 points which may be enough to finish 7th anyway.
Always worth remembering that some of the relegation-threatened teams come up with incredible results, as they get more desperate, as the season draws to a close.
4 wins and a draw would get us to 54. I agree that this, while far from certain, could very well get us 7th - especially if one of the wins was Wolves. Anything above 54 points and I think 7th is a near certainty. All the clubs have tough run-ins.
I don't want to get 7th otherwise progression next year will mean we have to go for Champions League - I'm not counting the Europa League as you lose money.
In the next 2 or 3 games west ham could quite easily sit in 7th. Then West Ham have some trickier looking games. It will "to and fro" all the way to the end. Personally think if we can beat fulham and get anything out of Manchester we'll be half way there.
I honestly hope we do a Bournemouth against Man City, well a part from lose. Park the bus, shut up shop, play a 6-4-0/5-4-1 and frustrate the hell out of them. At this point in the season with Europa League a realistic possibility, and GD could come into play, no need to go there and play an open game. Take a point. I think we can definitely finish 7th but as others have said, I think the 2 games that define that, will be Wolves and West Ham.
Have you got a source for that? Prize money is not too shabby now. €260,000 for playing in the second qualifying round (which is where a team qualifying via finishing 7th would start). After that, another €280,000 + €300,000 for the next two rounds. So even if a club didn't make it to the group stage it's hard to see how they'd lose money. Perhaps there'd be hefty bonuses for the players for qualifying for Europe but there's still some income, and that's before gate and TV money. It's then €2.9m just for playing in the group stages, with €570,000 for each win and €190,000 for a draw. So, although the qualifying rounds are not especially lucrative, reaching the group stage and managing a couple of wins and a couple of draws would bring in approximately €5.2m. That's roughly what the team finishing second bottom in the Premier League gets. Not the riches on offer in the EPL but I think the notion that playing in the Europa League sucks up money is a fallacy.
Three points against Southampton who are battling to save their Premier League status? I think that is optimistic. Personally I think we will do well to get another 11 points from 27. Three wins, two draws and four defeats.
