DAY 1 - Werewolf 2018

Discussion in 'Werewolf: The forum game' started by Otter, Jun 4, 2018.

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Day 1 Lynching

Poll closed Jun 5, 2018.
  1. Cassetti's Beard

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. cthulhu

    5.6%
  3. Daft Row

    5.6%
  4. Diamond

    38.9%
  5. domthehornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. HappyHornet24

    5.6%
  7. Harrow Orn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Meh

    5.6%
  9. miked2006

    5.6%
  10. nornironhorn

    5.6%
  11. NorwayHornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  12. Optimistichornet

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  13. Phillipine Orn

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  14. PowerJugs

    11.1%
  15. Squibba

    11.1%
  16. steve harrow

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  17. Steve Leo Beleck

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  18. wfcmoog

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  19. With A Smile

    5.6%
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  1. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

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    Difference of opinion here. What's more suspicious?

    A) A few posts from an individual about their character role/ asking pointless questions/ excuses that aren't consistent?
    B) No posts at all?
     
  2. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

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    Lol what?


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  3. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    Are these pointless questions???
     
  4. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

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    Don't feel comfortable voting for Norway until we see a pattern in the messages in another day or two's time when you can more reliably validate them. As I've said already I'm inclined to think Norway is Good and Diamond is unknown until we can start to disseminate posts based on current knowledge and logic.
     
  5. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    Only based on the fact you turned up pretty damn close to the second message which I personally am assuming is the wolf's.

    It's a very tenuous link.
     
  6. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

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    Well all I can say , is I think message 2 is our wolf , on that assumption ,then I am the only one that is good (with some sort of evidence), diamond is probably good as well if we are playing the odds! If second message is the seer then wolfs message was a random guess and the odds are with me being good the same as any other !
     
  7. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

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    Hmm fair enough.

    Logic behind the other two you named? Have they not posted yet?


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  8. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    Daft row no. SLB only posted after we mentioned him.
     
  9. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

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    Neither message gives a compelling reason why we ought vote for Norway or Diamond. One of them at least is definitely good. It's possible it's not, but for now I believe the second message is from the wolf. If so it virtually exonerates Diamond as well as Norway. Not that Diamond is showing himself much to be a player for team good so far, but that can be said of others too.

    So let's look at quiet posters, especially old players. Squibba is perennialy quiet...sometimes wonder why he signs up to play! Miked...he is playing differently. He has played in every game I have and was always active from memory. Time is running here for me, unless somebody points out something I'm not yet seeing Mike has my vote.
     
  10. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    When I played the Alpha my tactic was to post a medium amount (too little and being too mouthy is suspicious) and avoid anything controversial, generally saying bland things, occasionally asking questions and let the group eat itself through suspicion.
     
  11. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    Also was a good tactic to generally agree with the prevailing mood once this was relatively certain.

    Not much help for today but we need to think about patterns over the next few days
     
  12. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    Id be most worried about those who are not silent but quite quiet, in the background, uncontroversial, average
     
  13. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

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    Exactly why I think it’s not Daft Row @Meh


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  14. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster

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    I agree that there is no reason to vote for Norway or Diamond - one is definitely good & the other has most likely been picked at random so could be either. I agree miked has been quiet but my worry is that, if we lynch him and get it wrong, we lose a very good (& usually active) player from team good.
     
  15. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

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    Careful, you were my second choice!!!
     
  16. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    True, but I never buy into this "I forgot" excuse. I mean, who is that busy they forget? Put it in your diary if you're that forgetful or busy FFS. It only comes around once a bloody year (Apologies to those with genuine reasons!!!)
     
  17. Harrow Orn

    Harrow Orn Squad Player

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    Why would you vote for a player who you think is "probably good"?
     
  18. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    I agree. Miked maybe quieter than usual but I'd give him another day as may be busy. Benefit of the doubt for miked for today as he is an asset for team good if good.
     
  19. miked2006

    miked2006 Premiership Prediction League Proprietor

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    You’re saying somebody who isn’t posting is more likely to be guilty. Squibbs is saying someone who doesn’t post at all is less likely to be guilty, as this arises greater suspicion. I personally think it's more suspicious to be silent, as those players are very likely to be booted on day 1.

    A question trying to work out a rationale on which to vote isn't pointless. One saying: 'what time does the tavern open' or a basic gameplay question to the mods by an experienced player is.
     
  20. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

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    Because as things stand it’s better than a stab in the dark. I’m saying that it’s a possibility they’re both good but I think Day One is too early to be voting for people based solely on message frequency.


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  21. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    Further based on what we know for certain.
    If we divide the village into two groups (Norway and Diamond in one=a) (The rest of us in the other=b)
    We have 3? evil players

    1 from group a is certainly good, the other is a wolf guess and the other has a chance of 15/18 of being good

    From group b we have 2 or 3 (so close to 3 statistically who are evil) from the remaining 17 therefore

    We shouldn't vote for either of the 2 named.
     
  22. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

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    One myth I always see is that quiet players raise suspicions. They don't. Every single game we have quiet wolves and time and again the named people get whacked while the quiet ones move into the latter part of the game. Let's try something different this time?
     
    Cassetti's Beard, Cthulhu and Meh! like this.
  23. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

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    Pointless train of thought. He/they are also an asset for team bad if that's what they are this game.
     
  24. Daft Row

    Daft Row Reservist

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    Hi All. Apologies for being out all morning, been a busy boy. Reading through each page now and will come back...
     
  25. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    Couldn't agree more. As I said voting for you or Norway isn't the right course of action. We would have more chance today picking at random from everyone else than one of you two
     
  26. Meh!

    Meh! Pre-Dictator

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    He's bad and we don't we have another chance. He's good and we do he's gone.

    I'll play the odds and not vote for him yet.

    You're assumptions are only based on theory as much as anyone elses.
     
  27. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster

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    I agree Cthulhu but who the heck do we vote for? I'm swaying towards voting for an inactive player; purely because, if we get it wrong (as we probably will with so little to go on), it will be less of a loss for team good.
     
  28. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

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    Hate the first day or two, it's either wasted votes which almost always kill off a Good or vote for inactive players who will get killed by the organiser anyway.
     
  29. Cthulhu

    Cthulhu Keyboard Warrior

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    I don't. and I don't think anyone has an answer.
    We need to remember under the radar players later in the game though when we get caught up in other things
     
  30. Steve Leo Beleck

    Steve Leo Beleck Squad Player

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    It doesn't help much but a Wolf who is actively playing wouldn't post nothing at all as these people always get lynched on Day 1. And if they are a wolf who's forgotten about the game, they'll be eliminated anyway for not posting.

    In my mind, a vote for a totally silent player is a wasted vote - it usually takes out an innocent non-player and allows two kills.
     
  31. Norwayhornet

    Norwayhornet Squad Player

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    Until we get more intel ,then i think its a good idea to vote off a no show and save otter the hassle of doing it, at least those bothering to play get an extended run by one day .
     
  32. HappyHornet24

    HappyHornet24 Crapster

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    Who would you vote for then?
     
  33. PowerJugs

    PowerJugs Doyley Fanatic

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    I agree it's the safest option to, it's just frustrating that you can't go for another option without potentially jeopardizing Good.
     
  34. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

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    Conveniently posting as soon as quiet people are showing up on the radar?
     
  35. PhilippineOrn

    PhilippineOrn First Team

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    Voted, sorry Mike, your gameplay is just too different.
     
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