Premier League 2016/17 Relegation Watch

Discussion in 'The Hornets' Nest - Watford Chat' started by Vicarage Road, Jul 25, 2016.

  1. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    The small minded will say that, but it will be hollow without any merit. The point I made ages ago was we're not as safe as many were making out. Into the final week now and we're still not safe. Everything people said wouldn't happen, impossible to happen, it goes against probability.......has in fact happened. The only result that's gone our way was the Sunderland win at Hull, which was huge for us.

    If Hull win tomorrow, then it goes to the final match before we know our fate.

    An 11 goal cushion looks quite healthy right now, but just a 2-0 win for Hull and a 4-0 defeat for us a Chelsea reduces that to 5......going into the final day. A win for Hull reduces that to at least 4 and City could well be playing Liverpool for the 3rd place so will be going for it.

    If Hull win tomorrow, that does mean Palace have to win at Old Trafford......who will be resting all their stars for the Europa Cup final a few days later......and Swansea will have to beat West Brom at home as well as Hull beating Spurs (with nothing to play for) at home.

    Virtually all impossibilities, unlikelihood's and improbabilities have actually occurred, so the other things could also happen....it's not too hard to see it.

    If we do go down people will say "how the hell did that happen?" , but I would say the exact same if we actually stay up!!
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2017
  2. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    I believe,due to a freak accident,the game is not to be played and awarded to Hull,in recognition of the city being City of Culture and as a tribute to Philip Larkin.

    My source reveals that BFS had fashioned a life size replica of Sakho,made from used gum. He was debating whether to play it instead of Damian Doolally,when it unfortunately fell on the Hull bus and stuck all their players to each other.

    They are all now in Croydon General being 'de gummed' and should be unstuck by next Sunday.

    Palace will have to play in romper suits against Jose's juniors next week.
     
  3. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    Some rational analysis of our odds of going down.

    The following or similar scenario needs to happen, followed by the odds from Oddschecker, decimal price...

    Hull beat Palace by 4 or more goals ....66-1
    Hull beat Spurs by 2 or more goals .....10-1
    Swansea to beat WBA ...........................2-1
    Palace to beat Utd away........................5-1
    Chels to beat Wat by 3 or more............4-1
    City to beat Wat by 3 or more ..............5-1

    66x10x2x5x4x5= 132,00


    So the true odds of us being relegated is not the the 250/1 the bookies are quoting but actually 132,000 to 1
     
  4. I Blame Pozzo

    I Blame Pozzo First Team

    And the involvement of chewing gum and the Hull bus in the proceedings?
     
  5. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Nice try, and I love the way you always go for the odds as some sort of comfort.

    Why are you including a 4 goal win for Hull in there.....is it just to bump up the odds? Hull only have to win both games, we'll do the rest with big defeats, which will be much smaller odds.

    If you had an accumulator of Hull win x 2, Swansea win, Palace win at United and 2 four goal defeats for Watford, it wouldn't be paying out £132,000.

    Not sure where you got your odds from, but they are way out.

    Hull beat Palace ....11-4
    Hull beat Spurs .....9-2
    Swansea to beat WBA .....8-11 (odds on)
    Palace to beat Utd away..........7-2
    Chels to beat Wat by 4 ............6-1
    City to beat Wat by 4 ..............10-1

    The odds for this accumulator works out to be 1871-1.....a little bit different to yours.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2017
  6. zztop

    zztop Eurovision Winner 2015

    You almost seem pleased with yourself, HB1, that you have found an easier way we can go down ;)
     
    UEA_Hornet likes this.
  7. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Think he has a big bet on it!!
     
  8. Bubble

    Bubble Wise Oracle

    Either way we've been a shambles for 80% of this season! We will stay up but only because the others have run out of time/games.

    I think we will lose both our remaining games without scoring and concede 6 goals in the process.

    This will in fact be redundant as I think Palace will beat Hull 1-0 tomorrow.

    Next season, with or without Mazzarri we will be nailed on certainties to drop out the League from a bookmakers perspective.

    We still have time to turn this around but it starts as soon as we are mathematically safe and it starts by binning off Mazzarri and his back room staff!!
     
    põder, Banjo and The Voice of Reason like this.
  9. Keighley

    Keighley First Team

    They f**k you up, the Premier League.
     
    I Blame Pozzo and Luther Bassett like this.
  10. Hornpete

    Hornpete Squad Player

    It only needed one result to go our way to make it almost impossible. That result (Sunderland v hull) HAPPENED. Your argument is thus void, or at least the majority of your argument. The fact you will wonder how we stayed up shows you dont really grasp the odds, but I wont quote them you as that's not a legit response of course...

    People were not if I recall, arguing that each anti survival result is unlikely or Watford getting no points was preposterous. But a combination of everything going badly was so unlikely that it was not really going to happen. You continue to argue about it despite the fact that it is now necessary for hull not only to beat spurs but to have a large swing in gd go their way. It is not happening and everyone knows it.
     
    Guy likes this.
  11. jw-

    jw- Reservist

    This isn't how probability works.
     
  12. nascot

    nascot First Team

    This new board is great and confusing at the same time. Great as in I can't see anything HB1 posts, even quoted replies don't show. Confusing as some of these posts now make no sense.
     
  13. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    There's no Dislike button anymore either....so that's your contribution to the forum gone in an instant.
     
  14. Jumbolina

    Jumbolina First Team

    Watching Hornetboy1 grapple with probability is like watching the face of an old labrador being shown a new magic trick by its owner.
     
    Arakel and UEA_Hornet like this.
  15. nascot

    nascot First Team

    Harsh on old labradors.
     
  16. BigRossLittleRoss

    BigRossLittleRoss First Team

    HB1 , you've failed to take into account the huge goal swing required. You've given odds on Hull winning but not the odds required to swing goal difference . As any betting man will tell you there is a huge difference in price between winning and winning by 3 or 4 goal margins . If you had the courtesy to read my post properly you would have realised this.

    Oh and your quoted odds are fractional , when multiplying odds you need to it with decimal odds. So for instance if Swansea were EVENS to win against WBA , in decimal that is 2-1.

    All my odds are accurate within a point or two . Look them up on oddschecker .
     
  17. The Voice of Reason

    The Voice of Reason First Team Captain

    At long last I think some of you are beginning to realise that it is far from impossible that we could still go down, I hasten to add that that is the last thing that I think will or would want to happen, but I had become a little perturbed that most of you refused to think it could!

    Come on Palarse!!!
     
  18. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    1871-1 with 9 days of the season to go. And we're supposed to take that proposition seriously?
     
  19. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Seeing as you grapple with simple logic, you'd probably find two-piece jigsaw difficult.

    Do you realise when you have no argument, but cannot admit to being wrong, the only alternative you have is ridicule? You've made a fool of yourself long enough now......but carry on.....it's very amusing.
     
  20. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Admit it.....you're absolutely gutted I'm spot on with the predictions. That must really fry your brain.
     
  21. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    Which predictions? You predicted we could still go down and are still in danger, yet the odds have lengthened significantly with every passing week.
     
  22. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    This is what makes me laugh. You just cannot see how wrong you are. So you think it's not at all possible we could go down. You refuse to accept that as a possibility. I think you need to buy a good calculator because it's a FACT, Watford are still not mathematically safe.....no matter what your odds are telling you.
     
  23. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    They're your odds...

    How do you explain the odds lengthening massively every week if we're to believe your prediction abilities are so great?
     
  24. jw-

    jw- Reservist

  25. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    Whatever that means.

    You think it's impossible we could go down. I think there is a possibility. That's the debate. It's not even a debate really.......I'm factually correct and you're not, so it's very strange you and others want to continually go over this. Denying reality.

    It's got nothing to do with odds or probability, but you refuse to understand that for some reason.

    So to converse on the level you seem to only understand, what will your view be if Hull win tomorrow and we take a heavy defeat on Monday?

    The odds of Watford getting beaten at Chelsea and Hull beating a team two places and 4 points above them will be so astronomical.....that there are not enough numbers to represent the odds for that happening. Is that your view?
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2017
  26. Diamond

    Diamond First Team

    There's more chance of Spain winning Eurovision than there is of us going down. Did you see their entry? That's all you need to know.
     
  27. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I'm just pointing out they're your odds rather than mine. Literally, as you calculated them only a few posts ago.

    Good news for my acca. Cash out option will be well on the way to a handsome profit.
     
  28. wfc4ever

    wfc4ever Administrator Staff Member

    Let's just hope Hull don't win..

    Then we might all be able to move on and debate other matters!
     
  29. Timbers

    Timbers Apeman

    What happens when we get our points deduction for faking bank letters ;)
     
  30. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    A voiding awkward questions as usual.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2017
  31. UEA_Hornet

    UEA_Hornet First Team Captain

    I don't understand the question. Or rather the point of it.
     
  32. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    These are not difficult questions to answer.

    what will your view be if Hull win tomorrow and we take a heavy defeat on Monday?

    If Swansea stay up will they consider themselves never in danger? Same applies to Hull, will they consider themselves never in danger? I think there's a real possibility that Swansea will finish above us now......so if they have been fighting against relegation all season but finish a point above us.....how can we be have never been in danger?

    ESPN seem to think we're also in danger. http://www.espnfc.co.uk/club/watfor...s-four-as-watford-skid-toward-relegation-zone
     
  33. wfcSinatra

    wfcSinatra Predictor Choker 14/15

    An eleven goal swing is just way too unlikely, if we lost 3/4 - 0 to Everton I would've been concerned but I think it's just too unlikely right now.

    If Hull win their next two games then Palace will go down and not us
     
  34. Luther Bassett

    Luther Bassett Reservist

    If you're going to lecture people, at least get your facts right - Evens is 1/1, not 2/1
     
    hornetboy1 likes this.
  35. hornetboy1

    hornetboy1 First Team Captain

    I agree with you, but we've flown close to the sun, there's no doubt about it. But, to listen to this forum, you'd think we were in West Brom's position for most of the season. It's just ridiculous to deny we have been, and still are, at risk.

    Too many think 40 points means that you cannot be relegated, no matter what, like it's a rule or something. It's just a very strange notion people seem to have on here.
     

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